Daily Fantasy Baseball Top Pitchers on DraftKings & FanDuel

MLB’s 2021 regular season is in full swing, and the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide the slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top-scoring projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.

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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 13

Trevor Bauer: LAD vs. COL — DraftKings $10,200, FanDuel $11,000

Trevor Bauer is loving life in Los Angeles and certainly not without justification. Averaging 27.35 DraftKings and 45.5 FanDuel points per game, Bauer has a 13.85 K/9, 39.2% strikeout rate, 13.6% swinging-strike rate, 0.69 WHIP, .130 average against and 5.9% walk rate. Yet with strikeouts come the increased propensity to surrender home runs, and Bauer is averaging 2.08 HR/9. Still, facing the Rockies away from Coors Field is always a plus.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Bauer a 39.8% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 14.1% chance of being the overall top pitcher on FanDuel. Awesemo’s projections of 29.62 DraftKings and 48.27 FanDuel points make Bauer one of the better options on Tuesday’s hefty 11-game slate. High asking prices typically drive the value down, but Bauer still retains a 15.6% chance of being a top-two value on DraftKings and 3.2% top value on FanDuel. Awesemo’s projections of 53.8% ownership on DraftKings and 36.5% on FanDuel forecast Bauer as the highest-owned pitcher for Tuesday on both sites.

Facing a Rockies roster projected to roll out four left-handed hitters and five righties, Bauer faces an even-keeled assortment from both sides of the plate. Over his career, Bauer has a .299 wOBA, 26.2% strikeout rate, 3.44 FIP and 0.88 HR/9 against right-handed hitters, with a .314 wOBA, 24.9% strikeout rate, 4.31 FIP and 1.29 HR/9 versus lefties. From now through last season the Rockies have not been impressive against right-handed pitchers, with a 24% strikeout rate, .301 wOBA, .245 batting average and 73 wRC+ against the split. Bauer is priced up indeed, but his ability to secure slate-breaking numbers is a well-warranted chase on Tuesday’s massive slate.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A

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Stephen Strasburg: WAS at STL — DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $10,400

With an unfortunate early exit in the 2020 season, Stephen Strasburg has returned to the mound and continued the dominance leading up to his 2019 World Series Championship. In his first start since wrist surgery last year, Strasburg went six innings against the Braves, allowing two hits and striking out eight while surrendering no runs en route to 27.7 DraftKings and 46 FanDuel points last Wednesday. In his last full season in 2019, Strasburg had 10.81 K/9, a 29.8% strikeout rate, 13.4% swinging-strike rate, 1.04 WHIP, .208 average against, .274 BABIP and 3.25 FIP. Heading to St. Louis to face the Cardinals, Strasburg draws a solid matchup and is priced down slightly on DraftKings.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Strasburg a 7.3% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 4.4% chance of being the overall top pitcher on FanDuel. Awesemo projections of 16.97 DraftKings points and 29.87 FanDuel points make Strasburg an intriguing option for Tuesday’s lengthy list of pitchers available. He is a projected 4.8% top-two value on DraftKings and 1.1% top value on FanDuel, provided his middling point projections and price premium. In consideration of where the field lies, Awesemo’s ownership projections forecast Strasburg for 3.4% investment on DraftKings and just 0.10% from the field on FanDuel, making Strasburg an intriguing pivot option today.

Strasburg takes the mound on the road against an early projection of two left-handed hitters, five righties and two switch-hitters on behalf of St Louis. Over his 11 years in the majors, Strasburg has handled his splits with static numbers on both sides of the plate, posting a .277 wOBA, .220 average against, 1.14 WHIP and 27.2% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters. The tale against same-handed hitters isn’t drastically different, as Strasburg has a 30.8% strikeout rate, .275 wOBA, .225 average against and 1.04 WHIP against fellow righties. Dating back through last season, the Cardinals have been ho-hum against right-handed pitchers, posting a 24.5% strikeout rate, .289 BABIP, 10.2% infield fly ball rate and 91 wRC+ against the split. Strasburg’s asking price on FanDuel is a tad steep while providing a high-end bargain on DraftKings, and he makes for an enticing selection at starting pitcher for Tuesday’s monster main slate.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value E

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value C

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Luis Castillo — DraftKings $7,100, FanDuel $8,400

Speaking of savings, Luis Castillo comes with a scroll wheel on Tuesday given his frugal salary. Despite having his doors blown off against the Cardinals on Opening Day, Castillo’s 2020 resume reflected a 3.21 ERA, .232 average against, 1.23 WHIP, 3.29 BABIP and 30.5% strikeout rate with 11.44 K/9. Facing off with the Giants for the second game of their road trip to Oracle Park, Castillo looks to pick up from his last start where he achieved 26.8 DraftKings points and 46 FanDuel points via five strikeouts, four hits allowed, and no earned runs against Pittsburgh.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool projects Castillo for a 16% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 7% chance of being the overall top pitcher on FanDuel, coinciding with Awesemo’s projections of 21.28 DraftKings points and 36.44 FanDuel points for Castillo on Tuesday. Provided his fiscal-friendly salary cost on today’s 11-game slate, Castillo projects as a 22.3% top-two value pitcher on DraftKings and 6.4% overall top value pitcher on FanDuel. Awesemo’s ownership projections of 21% on DraftKings and 7.4% on FanDuel suggest the field’s partial awareness of Castillo’s value (namely on DraftKings), yet nothing at all worth fading because of it.

Taking the mound in pitcher-friendly San Francisco, Castillo is due to face a daunting six left-handed hitters. The early-evening Bay Area weather forecasts a cool, clear evening in the low 50s with up to 20-mph wind gusts blowing out toward left-field, making Castillo’s 12.5% HR/FB rate from 2020 a tad concerning (10% HR/FB this season). From now through last season, the Giants have posted a 22.9% strikeout rate, .323 wOBA and 104 wRC+ against righty pitchers, but they have just a 11.6% HR/FB ratio (26th in MLB). With plenty of spend-up fantasy options begging to be rostered on such a deep slate, Castillo provides some spending relief while donning a decent matchup.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A

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Author

Chris Giordani

Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.