Daily Fantasy Baseball Top Starting Pitchers Projections & Ownership for DraftKIngs & FanDuel

MLB’s 2021 regular season is in full swing, and the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide the slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top-scoring daily fantasy baseball projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.

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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 20

Max Scherzer (Early Slate): WAS vs. STL — DraftKings $10,700; FanDuel $11,000

The Nationals are already having plenty of struggles, while Max Scherzer continues to shoulder the workload for Washington. He is averaging 24.33 DraftKings and 40.66 FanDuel points in three starts this season and coming off a strong 2020 season, for those leaning on larger recent sample sizes. While his fastball velocity is down slightly, Scherzer is still dealing 94 mph, and his swinging strike rate is currently up to 17.4% (from 14.7% in 2020). Scherzer draws a Cardinals opponent that has proven to be inept against right-handed pitching since last season.

Awesemo projects Scherzer slated for 20.39 DraftKings and 35.05 FanDuel points and projects as a top-two pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the early slate on Wednesday. He is also drawing value ratings of 1.91 on DraftKings and 3.19 on FanDuel. Scherzer is projecting for massive ownership on both sites (48.2% on DraftKings, 23.1% on FanDuel), but his fantasy ceiling can potentially make him a must-own play.

The Cardinals will have five righties and two switch-hitters, and Scherzer’s previous splits provide some relief when considering his resume against fellow righties. Last season, Scherzer posted a 13.25 K/9, 36.1% strikeout rate, .205 average against, 1.08 WHIP, 1.27 HR/9, 7.6% walk rate and 3.11 FIP against right-handed hitters. Scherzer has had some turmoil with lefties, however, with a 1.72 WHIP, .314 average against, 3.99 xFIP, and 1.41 HR/9. Against righties the last two seasons, the Cardinals have managed a .230 batting average, 24.5% strikeout rate, .141 ISO, .371 slugging rate and 11.9% HR/FB rate. On a perfectly sized slate to start the day, Scherzer is the clear-cut top pitching option on both sites.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value D

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value C

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Tyler Mahle: CIN vs ARI — DraftKings $9,500; FanDuel $8,800

Tyler Mahle draws the start for the Reds on a brisk 34-degree evening against the Diamondbacks. Last year Mahle had a 11.33 K/9 with a 29.9% strikeout rate, .193 average against, 1.15 WHIP, 3.88 FIP, and 1.13 HR/9, while his 10.4% walk rate could use improvement. That was his best season so far, and Mahle appears to be continuing in 2021 with the success he left off on.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Mahle a 29.7% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 11.8% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel, the first and second-best options on each site. His top value projections fall only slightly behind those percentages on both sites as well. He is, however, projecting for nearly 50% ownership, so gamers will have to differentiate elsewhere.

Arizona has an even split of lefties and righties today, so Mahle’s command from both sides of the plate will be called into effect. He had a 12.9% walk rate against lefties last year, along with a 24.8% strikeout rate, .176 average against and 1.20 WHIP. Against righties he had a 35% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate, .218 average against and 1.11 WHIP. Arizona struggled against right-handed pitchers, posting a .156 ISO, 90 wRC+ and an 11.5% HR/FB rate. The heightened humidity would draw concern, but Mahle has kept the ball in the park and has the ability to produce solid fantasy totals on Wednesday’s main slate.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value C

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value C

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Ian Anderson: ATL at NYY — DraftKings $8,800; FanDuel $7,300

Ian Anderson gets the start for the Braves, averaging 14.4 DraftKings and 26.33 FanDuel points this season. While he is coming off arguably the best season of his career, Anderson has been up and down and gets a tough Yankees lineup in hopes of evening out his tumultuous start.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Anderson a 27.3% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 12% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel, while he projects for 17.46 DraftKings and 30.61 FanDuel points. Both of these marks are boosted by his bargain price point, as evidenced by his 23% top-two value projections on DraftKings and 8.1% top-value on FanDuel. Plus, his ownership projection of just 8.1% on FanDuel jumps given his decent chance hitting upside today. DraftKings ownership is probably a bit too high, but it is still manageable if the ceiling there seems high enough.

Anderson draws a New York batting order targeting his slight weakness against righties. With a 22.4% strikeout rate, .200 average against and 3.46 FIP, he has fared OK against right-handed hitters, but his numbers against lefties are far better — 36.6% strikeout rate, .145 average against and 1.75 FIP. The Yankees since last year have a .243 batting average, .195 ISO, 115 wRC+, and a terrifying 18.4% HR/FB rate. Yet with the Yankees still not hitting on all cylinders, Anderson has the potential to bounce back from a couple of recent let-down performances at a moderate fantasy cost.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value B

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value B

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Author

Chris Giordani

Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.