Wednesday’s massive slate brings a gluttony of both value and top-shelf pitching options, and Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool is here to help us find the best plays, from ace Tyler Glasnow to the red-hot Carlos Rodon. Here are the top daily fantasy baseball pitchers for Wednesday, April 28.
Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 28
Tyler Glasnow: TB vs OAK — DraftKings $10,300; FanDuel $10,800
Glasnow has produced solid fantasy totals this season even when under duress. Last season Glasnow had 14.28 K/9 and 3.66 FIP, and this year he is averaging 28.2 DraftKings and 46.6 FanDuel points over five starts. Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Glasnow a 35.4% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and an 11.2% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. He is also a 12.6% top-two value on DraftKings and 1.6% top-value on FanDuel. Awesemo MLB DFS ownership projections forecast Glasnow for 45.6% on DraftKings and 31.2% on FanDuel, so he is a popular top option on both sites.
Glasnow draws a favorable A’s batting order of six righties and one switch-hitter. Last season against right-handed hitters, Glasnow struck out 37.9% strikeout rate and allowed 1.19 WHIP, though he also had a concerning 4.86 FIP and 2.45 HR/9. He produced identical stats against lefties while surrendering a drastically reduced home run rate. Oakland has power staggered throughout their batting order, with switch-hitter Jed Lowrie (second), Matt Olson (third), Ramon Laureano (fourth) and Matt Chapman (fifth) earning a collective .756 OPS and 115 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers through 2020. The Athletics have a .222 batting average, 23.8% strikeout rate, .393 slugging percentage, 103 wRC, and 13.1% HR/FB rate against righty pitchers through last season. Those numbers are decent, but Glasnow has the stuff to neutralize them as long as he keeps the ball in the park. Despite pushing the envelope on asking price, Glasnow’s ceiling for fantasy production makes him a top option on Wednesday’s 10-game main slate.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value B
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
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Carlos Rodon: CWS vs DET — DraftKings $9,800; FanDuel $11,000
Carlos Rodon is off to a surprisingly impressive start to 2021 and takes the mound at home against the Tigers. In a larger sample size of starts in 2019, Rodon struck out 29.4% and had a 3.62 FIP; he is producing similar numbers this season. His fastball velocity is at its peak, and the Tigers make for an intriguing matchup on Wednesday.
With daily fantasy baseball projections of 19.12 DraftKings and 33.13 FanDuel points, Rodon is one of the top pitching options today. Awesemo also gives him a 6.7% chance of being a top-two value on DraftKings, though he is just a 0.90% top-value on FanDuel given his astronomical salary. His MLB DFS ownership projections of 35.7% DraftKings and 17.7% on FanDuel convey Rodon’s popularity as well.
Detroit has five switch-hitters and four righties against the lefty Rodon, with switch-hitter Niko Goodrum (second) posting a .314 ISO off left-handed pitching since last season. Rodon’s tenure against opposite-handed hitters in 2019 resulted in 12.0 K/9 1.57 WHIP, 1.20 HR/9 and 3.78 FIP. The Tigers when facing left-handed pitching through last season have a .277 batting average, 27.1% strikeout rate, .154 ISO, .766 OPS and 110 wRC+. So long as he keeps the velocity up and cements the strike zone early, Rodon could put up another monster fantasy performance, though the Tigers aren’t to be taken lightly.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value E
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value C
Dean Kremer: BAL vs NYY — DraftKings $5,900; FanDuel $6,500
Although the assignment appears daunting by namesake, a matchup with the Yankees for Dean Kremer may be more navigable than some could believe. Posting 11.21 K/9, .264 average against and 4.41 xFIP over the past season, Kremer has some areas of promise in his limited tenure in the majors. While the Yankees matchup could mean an early exit, his potential for strikeouts remains feasible while providing considerable salary relief.
Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Kremer a 7.1% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 4.1% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel, which is solid for such a discount pitcher. His combined point projection and affordability make Kremer a 19.9% top-two value on DraftKings and 7.9% top-value on FanDuel. Daily fantasy baseball ownership projections forecast 1.2% on DraftKings and 0.10% on FanDuel for Kremer, making him a low-key, frugal pitching option.
Kremer is due to face a lopsided New York batting order of seven right-handed hitters and one switch-hitter. He has fared slightly better when facing same-handed hitters, with a 26.8% strikeout rate, .279 average against, 1.70 WHIP and 2.43 FIP in his short career. Kremer struggles with hard contact on both sides of the plate, surrendering 32.9% on average, which could prove costly against D.J. LeMahieu, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton at the top of the Yankees order. New York has a .236 batting average, 22.4% strikeout rate, .336 on-base percentage, .190 ISO, 18.2% HR/FB rate and 112 wRC+ facing right-handed pitching over the past season. On a 10-game slate loaded with hitting to spend up for, Kremer provides moderate fantasy projections with the savings necessary to get those hitters.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points D, Value B
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points C, Value A
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