MLB DFS Picks: Andrew Heaney & Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, August 15 (FREE)

MLB DFS: Thursday, August 15th has a two game early slate and then an eight game “main” slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and MLB picks, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.

For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here


I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

[table id=1177 /]

DraftKings MLB

[table id=1178 /]

Yahoo MLB

[table id=1201 /]

Andrew Heaney

This is going to be wild. DraftKings has Heaney priced at $9000 against the White Sox. This is a perfectly reasonable salary. Chicago has the tenth highest strikeout rate against lefties, although they have been an above average in wRC+. Since pitching is thin tonight, I’ll have no problem prioritizing Heaney at the top. FanDuel, on the other hand, has Heaney at just $6400. When I started writing this, I assumed I had the wrong salary file. Using Heaney gives you one of the highest ceiling arms at a price where all bats are open to you. If I were ever going to lock a pitcher, it would be Heaney. The salary is just too low to ignore.

Sonny Gray

This is a nice spot for Gray. On a different day, he would have the potential to go underowned. Because of the slate, I’m not sure that will happen. Over the past two years, Gray has been able to avoid major blowups. His xISO is at .133 or below against lefties and righties. He strikes out both sides of the plate equally. There’s not much this guy can’t do. Meanwhile, the Cardinals active roster has an 89 wRC+ against righties this year. That number is tied for 25th in baseball. With Gray, you’re getting a good pitcher in a positive matchup. He just happens to be priced correctly.

Others

Honestly, I’m not sure what to do. The options at SP2 are incredibly slim. Drew Smyly against the Cubs? He gets bombed, but there’s a bit of strikeout potential coupled with the fact that the Cubs active roster has been slightly below average against lefties this season. Nestor Cortes could be the long man for the Yankees. While I wouldn’t expect him to go any longer than three innings, the salary savings will put you in a different hitting tier. I’m not the biggest Michael Wacha fan in the world, but a $5400 pitcher against a Reds team with a 92 wRC+ and below average power has to be looked at.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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