MLB Picks: Friday, September 20th gives us a nice variety of pitching and pitchers to target for the main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. In addition to using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel MLB
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings MLB
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo MLB
[table id=1201 /]
Charlie Morton
If you told me in April that Morton would be a -183 favorite against the Red Sox in September, I would have had a hard time believing you. And yet, here we are. Normally, you aren’t looking to target pitchers against Boston, but this is not the normal Red Sox lineup, particularly if Mookie Betts isn’t back. This season, Morton has a 34% strikeout rate against lefties and a 26% strikeout rate against righties. Neither hand has hit him hard, plus he gets the benefit of pitching this game in Tampa. While the Red Sox aren’t the best strikeout matchup in the world, their 3.6 run implied total is shockingly low. That’s the sign to me that I should be focused on Morton. I’m not expecting a ton of ownership, so I’m very comfortable calling him my SP1.
Anibal Sanchez
If you need a pitcher in the middle tier, Sanchez looks like the obvious option. We’ve been targeting the Marlins all season, and today is no different. Sanchez isn’t much of a strikeout guy, but he doesn’t give up power at all. He should be able to go deep into the game against a lineup totally bereft of talent. I haven’t even mentioned that the game is in Miami, so Sanchez gets the benefit of one of the best pitchers’ parks in the game. I expect him to be chalky, but it shouldn’t really matter much on a 14-game slate. Sanchez looks like a solid cash option.
Other Arms
I’m a little nervous about the matchup, but Mike Minor at $38 on Yahoo is worth a look if you’re avoiding the top tier. My “favorite” pay-down SP2 is looking like Jordan Zimmerman. He can’t miss bats to save his life, but the White Sox should help him out a bit with that issue. Zimmerman’s biggest issue is lefty power, which Chicago is largely without (save for Yoan Moncada). I’ll be taking my chances with Zimmerman regularly on DraftKings. While I still prefer Morton on FanDuel, Shane Bieber’s price makes him an easy second option.
