DFS Baseball: Tuesday, August 20th provides a robust fourteen game “main” slate with plenty of pitching decision points on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and MLB picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here
Don’t forget to check out the Strategy Show with Josh and Jake!
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel MLB
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings MLB
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo MLB
[table id=1201 /]
Clayton Kershaw
The most expensive pitcher on the slate is also the best. What a shock. The Blue Jays are a boom/bust team which fits Kershaw perfectly. Toronto has the seventh highest strikeout rate against lefties this season. It’s even worse from a wRC+ perspective. Only the Giants and Pirates have been worse. While they do show some pop, Kershaw rarely gives up power. Obviously, you’re paying a premium to get him, but I think he’s a better option than anyone in the murky upper-mid tier.
Dallas Keuchel
This is a tough recommendation because Keuchel isn’t exactly a fantasy stud. Lucky for him, he faces the Marlins. It’s an average strikeout matchup, but a phenomenal play against talent. Miami has the second lowest walk rate in the league versus lefties, which is perfect for a guy like Keuchel who rarely allows free baserunners. Not only that, but the Marlins have displayed almost zero power. For a guy that doesn’t get hit hard to begin with, Keuchel is in a matchup that fits like a glove. He’s not going to wow you with strikeouts, but Keuchel can go deep into this game. He’s even more interesting on FanDuel due to the quality start bonus.
Other Options
If Jalen Beeks happens to pitch for the Rays today, he’s a big time SP2 option on DraftKings. If Beeks isn’t pitching, you can talk me into Alex Young or Tyler Beede, but honestly, paying all the way down doesn’t feel very appealing. I would rather get to someone like Aaron Sanchez at $6800. The Tigers are putrid. Sanchez should thrive, plus the Astros are the biggest favorite on the slate. A win is likely. A quality start isn’t a stretch.
I realize I haven’t mentioned Shane Bieber – I like him, but I prefer Kershaw. I don’t get the sense I’ll be paying up for both, so Bieber will likely get pinched unless the ownership difference is dramatic.
