The Deep Dive: MLB DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Friday, 8/27

The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look into the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.

MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Aug. 27

Top Pitchers

Gerrit Cole ($10,500 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel) is the best pitcher on tonight’s slate, but he also has a difficult matchup against the Athletics. Cole has struck out 34.3% of right-handed hitters and has a 2.85 xFIP and 5.4% walk rate this season. He faces Oakland in a favorable park for pitchers, though the massive foul territory does lead to lower strikeout numbers. The only issue for Cole is that the Athletics have a very dangerous lineup that is difficult to strike out. Their active roster has a 106 wRC+ and 21.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Aaron Nola ($10,200 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) is not quite as good at pitching as Cole is, but he is still a top-tier pitcher, and he has a better matchup against the Diamondbacks. Nola is also considerably less expensive than Cole on FanDuel. Arizona’s active roster has struck out 25.1% of the time against right-handed pitching this season and has an 83 wRC+. Nola has struck out 29.3% of hitters this season and has a 3.47 xFIP. He has been even better at home, where he has struck out 32.8% of hitters and has a 2.94 xFIP.

Kevin Gausman ($9,900 DraftKings/$10,100 FanDuel) is similarly priced to Nola and Cole. He is not quite as good and has had issues getting deep into games recently, but he does offer similar upside at a fraction of the ownership. Gausman has struck out 29.6% of hitters and has a 7.8% walk rate and 3.41 xFIP this season. He has averaged 5.84 innings pitched per start, but over his last 10 starts Gausman has averaged only 4.9 innings per start. He has struck out 27.8% of hitters over those starts and has an 11.7% walk rate and 4.03 xFIP. His numbers have improved even more recently, as he has struck out 30.6% of hitters and has an 8.1% walk rate and 2.82 xFIP over his last five starts. He has still averaged less than five innings per start, however. Basically, Gausman can produce a similar ceiling to Nola and Cole. There are just more concerns about his consistency and median performance as well.

Joe Musgrove ($9,600 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) is another pitcher that is very difficult to trust but offers a high ceiling. Musgrove has struck out 28.3% of hitters and has a 6.7% walk rate and 3.41 xFIP while allowing 1.07 home runs per nine innings this season. Since June 6, which is roughly when baseball started to crack down on foreign substances, Musgrove has struck out 22.9% of hitters and has a 7.7% walk rate and 4.23 xFIP while allowing 1.0 home run per nine innings. Over his last five starts his numbers have been better, with a 30.6% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 3.38 xFIP. Musgrove faces an Angels team that has a 102 wRC+ and 23.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Musgrove is volatile, but he offers upside in this matchup.

Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,400 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this season. He has a 5.19 ERA but a 3.41 xFIP. He has allowed a .328 wOBA and .150 ISO to right-handed hitters but only a .281 xwOBA and .119 xISO. Against lefties he has allowed a .350 wOBA, .242 ISO, .336 xwOBA and .235 xISO. He has a mediocre matchup tonight against the Indians, but he is not projected for much ownership, and he offers the fourth-highest strikeout rate on the slate (28.6%).

Logan Gilbert ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) has struggled recently after an excellent start to the season, but he has also had some difficult matchups. He allowed a combined 14 earned runs in 8.1 innings pitched against Houston and Toronto in his last two starts. Over his last five starts, which also include two meetings with the Rangers and one with Tampa Bay, he has struck out 22.1% of hitters and has a 4.22 xFIP. He has struck out 26.6% of hitters and has a 3.94 xFIP. There is a chance that he has hit a wall since he did not have an actual season last year, but his velocity has not decreased and the rate of pitches that he has thrown in the strike zone over his last five starts is in line with his season average as well. There is risk here, but the matchup against the Royals is favorable, and Gilbert’s price has decreased as a result of his recent struggles.

Jake Odorizzi ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) has not been good this season, but he does have an excellent matchup against the Rangers. The Rangers’ active roster has a 23.6% strikeout rate and 78 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Odorizzi has struck out 20.9% of hitters and has a 4.84 xFIP and 1.78 home runs per nine innings, but he is inexpensive for a pitcher facing Texas. He is also projected to be popular tonight, so be aware of the ownership of the rest of your lineup.

Top Hitters

Mitch Garver ($4,200 DraftKings/$2,600 FanDuel)

Peter Alonso ($5,200 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel)

Brandon Lowe ($5,400 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel)

Josh Donaldson ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel)

Bo Bichette ($4,700 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel)

Randy Arozarena ($4,500 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel)

Luis Robert ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel)

Kyle Tucker ($3,600 DraftKings/$3,300 FanDuel)

Top Stacks

Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.

  1. Tampa Bay Rays
  2. Toronto Blue Jays
  3. Houston Astros

Top Under-owned Stacks: Houston, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Author
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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