The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look at the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Sept. 3
Top Pitchers
Freddy Peralta ($9,300 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) has the highest strikeout rate on the slate at 33.5%. He is also slightly less expensive than normal on DraftKings. While he offers a massive ceiling on a slate that does not have much top end pitching talent, there are also risks to be aware of. First, he is facing the Cardinals, who have been one of the more difficult teams to strike out this season. The Cardinals’ active roster has just a 21.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, though they also have only a 91 wRC+. More importantly, Peralta has not pitched since Aug. 19 because of shoulder fatigue. While that is not a particularly long layoff, the Brewers have limited Peralta’s innings at times this season. It is possible that he will not not restricted tonight, but it also would not be surprising if he is on some sort of pitch count.
Shohei Ohtani ($8,700 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel (for good reason) but he is available at a discount on DraftKings. Ohtani has a 29.9% strikeout rate and 3.57 xFIP this season, making him one of the best pitchers on tonight’s slate by a wide margin. He also has an excellent matchup against the Texas Rangers. The Rangers’ active roster has a 23.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season with an abysmal 82 wRC+.
Kyle Gibson ($8,100 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) is not the most exciting DFS pitcher, but he has an excellent matchup against the Marlins in Miami. The Marlins’ active roster has a 25.2% strikeout rate and 80 wRC+. Their home park is also favorable for pitchers. Gibson has a below average 19.2% strikeout rate this season with a 4.22 xFIP.
Nestor Cortes ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) has thrown 98, 104 and 95 pitches in his last three starts. As a starter Cortes has a 21.1% strikeout rate and 4.99 xFIP. There is risk here, but he is inexpensive and has a decent matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who have a 3.6 implied run total. Baltimore’s active roster has a 108 wRC+ and .181 ISO against left-handed pitching this season so there is plenty of risk here, but Cortes is inexpensive enough he is worth a look in tournaments. Do not be afraid to use Baltimore bats though if Cortes ends up being popular.
John Means ($6,600 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) is similar to Cortes as an SP2 option on DraftKings. Means has a difficult matchup against the New York Yankees, so there is plenty of risk, but he is also more talented than his price tag suggests. For the season, Means has struck out 22.9% of hitters and has a 4.36 xFIP. Means has been a bit worse since returning from injury, however. In eight starts since his return, he has struck out just 18.7% of hitters and has a 4.94 xFIP. Means is useless if he is popular, but he is currently projected for about 4% ownership compared to 23% for Cortes. The gap between the two is not that wide.
Rich Hill ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) has not been very good this season, striking out 21.8% of hitters and has a 4.72 xFIP. He has a favorable matchup against the Washington Nationals, however, and he also threw 91 pitches in his last start. He still only lasted five innings, but if the Mets continue to let him throw about 90 pitches, Hill could go deeper into games in the future. He is a risky option tonight, but as is the case with Means, he is currently projected to be much lower owned than Cortes, so he looks like a viable pivot in GPPs.
Glenn Otto ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) is close to minimum salary on DraftKings in his matchup against the Angels tonight. Otto started four games and threw 20 innings at AAA for the Rangers this season after making two starts at AAA for the Yankees. He also threw 65.1 innings at AA in the Yankees’ system. He struck out 40.7% of hitters at AA before striking out 24.5% of hitters in his time at AAA. Projection systems have Otto striking out about nine hitters per nine innings at the major league level with about a 4.45 FIP. He faces an Angels’ team that offers a ton of strikeout upside. Otto also threw 73 pitches in his last start, so he should be able to go relatively deep into the game.
Top Hitters
Travis d’Arnaud ($4,200 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) was not in the lineup last night but it is likely that he will return tonight. He will be facing Antonio Senzatela, who has struck out 17.3% of right-handed hitters this season with a .174 xISO and .337 xwOBA. d’Arnaud has a .337 xwOBA and .183 xISO in 492 plate appearances against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season and he gets a huge park bump hitting in Coors Field.
Peter Alonso ($4,800 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) gets to face left-handed start Sean Nolin and a weak Washington bullpen. Nolin has not spent much time in the majors this season, but he has allowed a .176 xISO to righties over a limited sample. Nolin has 43.2 total innings at the big-league level, so there is no reason to expect him to have sustained success. Alonso has posted a .385 xwOBA and .310 xISO in 403 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers since the start of the 2019 season.
D.J. LeMahieu ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel) has not been nearly as good this season as he was the last two, but he has a strong matchup against John Means and a terrible Baltimore bullpen. Since the start of the 2019 season, LeMahieu has a .291 xwOBA and .182 xISO against left-handed pitching. Means has allowed a .193 xISO to right-handed hitters this season, though he has held them to a .296 xwOBA as well.
Josh Donaldson ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) appears to be going a little under the radar tonight despite a very inexpensive price tag. He is facing Michael Wacha in Tropicana Field. While the park is not good for power, Wacha has allowed a .377 xwOBA and .240 xISO to right-handed hitters this season. Since the start of 2019, Donaldson has a .389 xwOBA and .273 xISO against right-handed pitching.
Jonathan Villar ($4,200 DraftKings/$2,600 FanDuel) seems to have settled into the lead off role for the Mets and he offers a combination of power and speed with multi-position eligibility. While Villar only has a .291 xwOBA and .136 xISO against left-handed pitching since the start of 2019, he is facing a below average lefty and will have the platoon advantage against Washington’s weak bullpen as well.
Luis Robert ($4,700 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) is gradually becoming more expensive but he offers plenty of upside tonight against Carlos Hernandez and the Kansas City Royals. Hernandez has been a solid pitcher this season, but his strikeout numbers have decreased since joining the starting rotation. As a starter, he has struck out 20.5% of right-handed hitters and has a 3.92 xFIP. He has also allowed 1.4 home runs per nine innings, however. In 315 career plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Robert has a .330 xwOBA and .195 xISO. He also offers some stolen base upside with 14 stolen bases in 99 career games.
Jorge Soler ($3,900 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) is simply mispriced for a power hitter in Coors Field against a pitcher who does not generate strikeouts. Soler has posted a .375 wOBA and .274 xISO in 992 plate appearances against right-handed pitching over the last three seasons.
Byron Buxton ($3,400 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) continues to be inexpensive since returning from the injured list. In the six games since his return, Buxton has struck out 33.3% of the time with a .117 wOBA and .043 ISO. His salary mitigates any rust concerns, however. Since the start of 2019, Buxton has a .351 xwOBA and .260 xISO against right-handed pitching.
Top Stacks
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Yankees
- New York Mets
Top Under-owned Stacks: New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies
