The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look at the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Sept. 7
Top Pitchers
Gerrit Cole ($11,800 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) is extremely expensive in a difficult matchup against the Blue Jays. Not only does Toronto have the second-best wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, but they also have only struck out 20.6% of the time. Still, Cole has the highest strikeout rate on the slate at 35.4%, which is 5 points higher than the next closest pitcher. Cole always offers a massive ceiling, but it may be difficult to fit him into lineups at this price point on a slate where there are a lot of good bats.
Logan Webb ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) has been excellent this season, with a 27% strikeout rate and 2.83 xFIP. He has his work cut out for him tonight as he faces the Rockies in Coors Field, but he is an interesting GPP option on DraftKings at extremely low ownership. Colorado’s 4.9 implied run total is relatively low for a team in Coors Field, and Webb’s Giants are a heavy -215 favorite.
Blake Snell ($9,200 DraftKings/$10,100 FanDuel) will probably be one of the most popular pitchers on tonight’s slate, and for good reason. He takes on the Angels, who most likely will not have Shohei Ohtani in the lineup, at a reasonable price point on a slate where most pitchers are either priced up or are in difficult matchups. Snell has the second-highest strikeout rate on the slate at 30.3%, and he has a 3.80 xFIP this season. He also has been allowed to work deeper into games recently, throwing at least 100 pitches in four of his last five starts.
Max Fried ($8,600 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel) stands out as a strong mid-range option tonight against the Washington Nationals. Fried has struck out 24.3% of hitters and has a 3.51 xFIP this season. The Nationals’ active roster has been slightly above average against left-handed pitching this season with a 103 wRC+ and 22.6% strikeout rate. Fried is one of the more talented pitches in his price range, however, so he projects as a useful option.
Zac Gallen ($7,900 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) will most likely join Snell as one of the highest-owned pitchers on tonight’s slate. Gallen offers one of the best combinations of talent and matchup, as he faces the Rangers in Arizona. The Rangers’ active roster has an abysmal 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, with a 23.3% strikeout rate. Gallen has struck out 26.7% of hitters and has a 4.14 xFIP, though he does have an elevated 10.3% walk rate and has allowed 1.48 home runs per nine innings. He projects as the best mid-range option if Snell’s salary is out of reach.
Jackson Kowar ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) is not necessary on FanDuel, but he offers a discounted SP2 option on DraftKings. He is in a dangerous matchup, as the Orioles have an implied run total of five and Kowar has to pitch in hitter-friendly Camden Yards. He posted excellent strikeout numbers at Triple-A this season, however, striking out 34% of hitters in 80.2 innings pitched. Through his first three starts at the major league level, Kowar has only struck out 16.3% of hitters and has an 18.6% walk rate. In his first start back from a demotion to Triple-A, however, he struck out six over six innings against Cleveland. Kowar also threw a slider in that start that he had not thrown in any of his previous appearances with Kansas City, so it is possible that he made improvements at Triple-A. This is a very risky spot, but Kowar has upside and is not projected to be a popular pitching option.
Top Hitters
Salvador Perez ($5,800 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) is having an absurd season at the plate, and he gets a positive park shift tonight in Camden Yards. Perez will be facing Alex Wells, who has allowed a .270 xISO, .449 xwOBA and a 9.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters in his limited time with the Orioles this season. Perez has a .379 xwOBA and .304 xISO in 190 plate appearances against left-handed pitching over the last three seasons.
Brandon Belt ($4,500 DraftKings/$3,300 FanDuel) was out of the lineup yesterday, but it is likely that he will return tonight against Chi Chi Gonzalez in Coors Field. Belt has a .337 xwOBA and .253 xISO in 236 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season and gets the ultimate park bump going from San Francisco to Colorado. Gonzalez has done a decent job of limiting left-handed power, with a .156 xISO this season, but he has still allowed a .353 xwOBA and just a 12.9% strikeout rate.
Trea Turner ($4,900 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) gets a favorable matchup against J.A. Happ, who has struggled for most of the season. Right-handed hitters have posted a .364 xwOBA and .229 xISO against Happ. Turner has had 334 plate appearances against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season and has a .368 xwOBA and .171 xISO. He also offers stolen base upside, as he has 26 this season. Happ has graded out as average at preventing stolen bases, so it is likely that Turner will look to run if he reaches base.
Justin Turner ($4,100 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) is another Dodgers’ hitter who is underpriced for his matchup against Happ. Happ has allowed a lot of production to right-handed hitters this season, and Turner has a .389 xwOBA and .275 xISO against left-handed pitching in 397 plate appearances since the start of 2019.
Brandon Crawford ($4,600 DraftKings/$3,300 FanDuel) has had a resurgent season, and now he gets to face Gonzalez in Coors Field. Crawford has a .368 xwOBA and .256 xISO against right-handed pitching this season and is clearly underpriced for this matchup.
Fernando Tatis ($6,100 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) is expensive compared to many of the other top hitting options on tonight’s slate, but he will be facing Angels’ rookie left-hander Packy Naughton. Naughton spent most of this season at Triple-A, where he struck out 21.7% of hitters and had a 4.40 xFIP in 56.2 innings pitched. Most projection systems give Naughton a 4.8 to 5.2 FIP in the majors. Tatis has a .398 xwOBA and .299 xISO in 253 plate appearances against left-handed pitching since debuting in 2019.
Jorge Soler ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel) gets to face a pitcher who allows plenty of power to opposing hitters and is not very good at striking them out. Paolo Espino has pitched well recently, but he has only struck out 22.5% of right-handed hitters and is allowing a .265 xISO and .346 xwOBA. Soler enters the game with a .339 xwOBA and .204 xISO against right-handed pitching this season.
LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel) is another San Francisco hitter who is drastically underpriced tonight in Coors Field. Wade has had an excellent season at the plate, producing a .376 xwOBA and .256 xISO in 256 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
Top Stacks
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- San Francisco Giants
- Cincinnati Reds
- Los Angeles Dodgers
Top Under-owned Stacks: Cincinnati Reds, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees
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