The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look at the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Sept. 10
Robbie Ray ($10,700 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel) is having a Cy Young-worthy season for the Blue Jays. He has struck out 32.3% of hitters while walking only 6.4% and posting a 3.21 xFIP. He will face a predominantly right-handed Orioles lineup tonight, but Ray has struck out 32.3% of right-handed hitters this season while holding them to a .283 xwOBA, so it is not particularly concerning. There are plenty of other talented pitchers on this slate, but most of them are in much more difficult matchups than Ray, so he stands out as one of the top options once again tonight.
Julio Urias ($9,300 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) offers a bit of a salary discount compared to Ray. He has struck out 26.7% of hitters this season and has a 3.61 xFIP and 5.1% walk rate. He has a relatively difficult matchup against the Padres, but San Diego’s 3.4 implied run total is one of the lowest on the slate.
Framber Valdez ($9,100 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) can be difficult to roster at times because he is a much better real-life pitcher than DFS pitcher thanks to a relatively low strikeout rate for his typical salary. Valdez has a strong 3.51 xFIP this season and has only allowed 0.65 home runs per nine innings. He has an elite 69.9% ground-ball rate, which is the highest on the slate by 12.5 points. The issue with Valdez from a DFS standpoint is that he has only struck out 22% of hitters. His lack of strikeouts is less of an issue tonight, however, since he is at a different price tier than the true aces (on DraftKings), and he has one of the best matchups on the slate against the Angels.
German Marquez ($6,800 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) has a mediocre matchup against the Phillies, but he is severely discounted on DraftKings. Marquez has struck out 24.2% of hitters this season with a 3.53 xFIP despite pitching roughly half of his games in Coors Field. He will be pitching in Citizens Bank Park tonight, which, while it is hitter friendly, is an upgrade from Coors. Marquez has struggled a bit recently, with just an 18.5% strikeout rate and 4.22 xFIP over his last five starts, but that is not much of a concern since DraftKings discounted him so substantially.
Ian Anderson ($6,600 DraftKings/7,800 FanDuel) is another talented pitcher with an elite matchup tonight, as he faces the Marlins at a very inexpensive price tag on DraftKings. Anderson has struck out 22.2% of hitters and has a 3.99 ERA, and he is one of the most promising young pitchers in baseball. This will be his third start since returning from the injured list, and it is worth nothing that he struck out zero hitters in his first two starts. One of those starts was against the Giants and one was in Coors Field, but it is a concern, nonetheless. Another concern is that his fastball velocity was lower than his season average in both starts (and was lower in his most recent start than the previous starts). His plate discipline numbers have also been below average across the board. A positive takeaway from those starts is that he threw 86 pitches against the Giants, so his workload is not a concern as long as he is pitching well. Anderson will face the Marlins tonight, who have a 25.2% strikeout rate and 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about Anderson’s performance in his two starts since returning from injury, but like Marquez, a lot of those concerns are muted when considering that Anderson is about $2,000 less expensive than he would be in this matchup had he pitched well in those starts.
Omar Narvaez ($3,500 DraftKings/$2,400 FanDuel)
Vladimir Guerrero ($5,900 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel)
Kolten Wong ($3,400 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel)
Eduardo Escobar ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel)
Adalberto Mondesi ($4,700 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel)
Christian Yelich ($3,900 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel)
Manuel Margot ($3,000 DraftKings/$2,300 FanDuel)
Nelson Cruz ($5,100 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel)
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Tampa Bay Rays
Top Under-owned Stacks: Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros
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📽️ MLB DFS Picks: Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy Show for DraftKings & FanDuel at 10 a.m. ET | 9/20/21