The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in depth look into the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Aug. 20
Top Pitchers
Walker Buehler ($10,500 DraftKings/$11,600 FanDuel) is arguably having the best season of any pitcher on tonight’s slate, but he is also the most expensive. Buehler has a favorable matchup against the Mets, who have an 89 wRC+ and 24.8 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season, but there are other top-tier pitchers with even better matchups at less expensive salaries. Buehler enters tonight’s game with a 27 percent strikeout percentage and 3.64 xFIP. He is a good option in tournaments at relatively low ownership in the Awesemo MLB DFS ownership projections, but I expect to have more exposure to several other pitchers because of his price.
Robbie Ray ($9,900 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) leads the slate with a 30.3 percent strikeout percentage this season. He has only walked 6.7 percent of hitters, which is a welcome improvement after years of struggling with his control. The only issue Ray has had this season is that he has allowed 1.57 home runs per nine innings, but I expect that number to decrease going forward as Ray no longer has to pitch his home games in the extremely hitter-friendly parks that the Jays were playing in earlier in the season. The Rogers Centre in Toronto still favors hitters, but not to the extent that their homes in Dunedin and Buffalo did. Ray faces the Detroit Tigers tonight. Detroit actually has a lot of right-handed hitters in their lineup who have had success against left-handed pitching — every hitter in the top six has a wRC+ of at least 109 against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season — but I still like Ray’s chances to pile up strikeouts tonight.
Chris Sale ($9,700 DraftKings/$10,700 FanDuel) returned from the injured list and threw 89 pitches over five innings against the Orioles in his first appearance of the season. Sale’s fastball velocity was in line with his 2019 velocity, which is a good sign but also suggests that his surgery may not return him to his pre-2019 form. Still, Sale struck out 35.6 percent of hitters in 2019 and posted a 2.93 xFIP so, if that is the pitcher we expect going forward, he still looks like a fantastic option. He has a great matchup tonight against the Texas Rangers. The Rangers’ active roster has only struck out 21.4 percent of the time against left-handed pitching this season, but their 77 wRC+ is also the second worst in baseball. I would be surprised if the Red Sox push Sale to go deep into this game, but I don’t see any reason not to expect 90 to 100 pitches, which can easily result in six innings pitched.
Lance McCullers ($9,500 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) is always difficult to trust in DFS because he walks too many hitters, which can drive up his pitch count in a hurry (in addition to putting extra runners on base). McCullers’ 11.2 percent walk percentage is the third highest on tonight’s slate behind only Blake Snell and Mitch Keller. Still, he offers significant strikeout upside and he is a very good pitcher overall. McCullers has struck out 27.7 percent of hitters this season, fifth highest on the slate excluding Sale, and he has a 3.75 xFIP. The Mariners’ active roster has struck out 25.2 percent of the time against right-handed pitching this season with a 92 wRC+. It will be difficult to prioritize McCullers ahead of pitchers like Sale and Ray at a similar price point on DraftKings, but he offers a substantial discount on FanDuel.
Lucas Giolito ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,800 FanDuel) has a dangerous matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, but he also has a lot of upside as the Rays’ active roster has struck out 24.8 percent of the time this season and Giolito’s 28.2 percent strikeout percentage is the fourth highest among pitchers with at least two starts this season. Giolito also gets a positive park shift as he will be pitching in Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay’s active roster has a 116 wRC+ and .207 ISO against right-handed pitching so it is a very risky spot, but Giolito deserves tournament consideration as long as his ownership is relatively low.
Max Fried ($8,600 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel) has a respectable 24.4 percent strikeout percentage this season and a decent matchup against the Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards. Baltimore’s active roster has been slightly better than average against left-handed pitching this season with a 105 wRC+ and a 23 percent strikeout percentage that ranks 17th in baseball. Fried typically does a good job of limiting damage, however, as he has held right-handed hitters to a .304 xwOBA and .138 xISO while striking out 23.2 percent. He doesn’t project as the best mid-range option tonight, but he also isn’t projected for much ownership in tournaments, according to the Awesemo MLB DFS ownership projections.
Sonny Gray ($8,400 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) is the clear-cut number one mid-range pitching option on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Gray faces the Miami Marlins tonight in Cincinnati. The Marlins’ active roster ranks eighth with a 24.5 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season and they have produced an 84 wRC+. Gray has struck out a higher percentage of hitters than everyone except Sale and Ray this season at 28.5 percent (tied with Snell). His 3.44 xFIP is better than every pitcher on the slate who has made at least two starts this season. There is no reason that Gray is priced down in this spot, and he stands out as a top option in any format.
Blake Snell ($8,000 DraftKings/$9,000) is tied with Gray with a 28.5 percent strikeout percentage. The issue for Snell is that he leads the slate with an absurd 13.8 percent walk percentage. He has thrown at least 100 pitches in three straight starts, which is a good sign, but he has still failed to go more than five innings in two of those starts. Snell offers a huge ceiling for his salary because of his strikeout stuff, but there is always risk because he struggles to be efficient enough to give us six-plus innings. He also has a mediocre matchup tonight against the Phillies, who have posted a 104 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season and could be returning Rhys Hoskins to the lineup.
Miles Mikolas ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is returning from the 60-day injured list to make his first start for the Cardinals since May 22. Typically, this would be a spot to avoid but Mikolas threw seven innings in his rehab start on Aug. 14 and 5.2 innings in his rehab start on Aug. 8. He threw a total of 86 pitches in the most recent start, so I don’t expect him to be on much of a restriction tonight. Mikolas isn’t a great strikeout pitcher, with only a 17.8 percent strikeout percentage for his career, but he has a respectable 4.05 career xFIP and an excellent matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates’ active roster has struck out 23.6 percent of the time with an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.
Austin Gomber ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) probably won’t be overly necessary tonight since we will be able to find plenty of value bats across 14 games. He still deserves a mention, however, because he is simply more talented than a $5,900 price tag — even if he is pitching in Coors Field. Gomber has struck out 23.9 percent of hitters with a 3.88 xFIP this season. He has thrown a total of 42.1 innings in eight starts at Coors Field this season and has held opposing hitters to a .235 wOBA with a 23.3 percent strikeout percentage. It is far from a safe spot and, again, it is unlikely to be necessary to spend down at pitcher tonight, but Gomber stands out at his price point from a talent perspective.
Top Hitters
Travis d’Arnaud ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,000) is fresh off signing a contract extension and now he gets to face Keegan Akin in Camden Yards. It is not a bad day to be Travis d’Arnaud. Akin has allowed a .203 xISO and .371 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season and he doesn’t project as someone who is likely to get better. Akin is essentially “good” enough that the Orioles don’t mind having him start games but also not good enough that the Orioles may accidentally win many of those games. D’Arnaud has a .357 xwOBA and .222 xISO in 214 plate appearances against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season. Baltimore’s bullpen behind Akin is also terrible, so there is upside for d’Arnaud throughout the game.
C.J. Cron ($4,900 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) has, predictably, put up obscene numbers in Coors Field this season. Cron has a .458 wOBA and 161 wRC+ in 196 plate appearances at home this season. Tonight, he will face Tyler Gilbert, who notably threw a no-hitter in his first big league start his last time out. Gilbert had a 5.40 xFIP in 11 minor league appearances this season and is a 27-year-old non-prospect so I don’t expect much success for him going forward. In addition to his success in Coors Field, Cron has produced a .416 xwOBA and .341 xISO against left-handed pitching over the last three seasons.
Ozzie Albies ($5,800 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) is another excellent, albeit expensive, option from the Atlanta Braves. Albies has a .396 xwOBA and .261 xISO against right-handed pitching over the last three seasons. There is plenty of value available at other positions that should allow us to pay up for Albies relatively easily.
Jose Ramirez ($5,900 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) faces Jaime Barria tonight in Cleveland. Barria has a decent change-up that he has used to limit left-handed hitters to a .333 xwOBA and .167 xISO over the last three seasons, but Ramirez isn’t an average left-handed hitter. He has the advantage in this matchup and is one of the top third base options tonight thanks to a .356 wOBA and .267 ISO in 845 plate appearances against right-handed pitching over the last three seasons.
Nick Ahmed ($3,200 DraftKings/$3,000 FanDuel) has a relatively difficult matchup against Austin Gomber, who was discussed above, but he will most likely be leading off in Coors Field. Almost no hitter should be as inexpensive as Ahmed is if they are leading off in Coors. Ahmed has a .345 xwOBA and .173 xISO in 342 plate appearances against left-handed pitching over the last three seasons. There is a good chance that he is more popular than he should be in tournaments given that it is a 14-game slate, but he is one of the top shortstop options to consider in cash games.
Fernando Tatis, Jr. ($5,700 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) is outfield eligible on DraftKings and FanDuel, which will make it even easier to get him into our lineups. He is probably going to be one of the most popular hitters on the slate, but he deserves it with multi-position eligibility in a favorable matchup against Matt Moore and the Phillies’ bullpen. Moore has allowed a .181 xISO and .326 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season while Tatis has a .402 xwOBA and .302 xISO in 236 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Connor Joe ($3,400 DraftKings/$3,600) is an average-ish hitter, but he is still inexpensive and expected to leadoff in Coors Field. Joe has a 98 wRC+ and .176 ISO in 57 career games in the majors and he will face a pitcher who is most likely average at best as well. That is enough for Joe to be a top cash game target on a team with a 6.8 implied run total assuming that he is leading off.
Alex Verdugo ($3,300 DraftKings/$2,800 FanDuel) didn’t get the price bump that most of his teammates did as he takes on Dane Dunning and the Texas Rangers tonight. Dunning isn’t a bad pitcher, but he also doesn’t typically go deep into games. For the season, Dunning has struck out 23.5 percent of hitters with a .316 xwOBA and .149 xISO allowed. Verdugo has a .385 xwOBA and .199 xISO against right-handed pitching this season. While the matchup may not be perfect, Verdugo is underpriced for a hitter of his skill level that is likely to be hitting near the top of the order on a team with a 5.8 implied run total.
Top Stacks
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Atlanta Braves
- Colorado Rockies
- New York Yankees
Top Under-owned Stacks: Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox
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