The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look into the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Aug. 23
Lance Lynn ($9,900 DraftKings/$10,100 FanDuel) has a very difficult matchup against the Blue Jays tonight in Toronto. There are not many good pitchers on this slate, however, so Lynn still stands out as one of the top options despite the matchup and expensive price tag. Lynn has struck out 27.8% of hitters this season, tied for the second highest rate on the slate, and he has a 3.93 xFIP. The issue for Lynn is that Toronto’s active roster has a 117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and has only struck out 20.9% of the time, which is the third-lowest mark in baseball.
Alek Manoah ($8,500 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) is coming off a dreadful start against the Nationals, and he gets a more difficult matchup tonight against the White Sox. Manoah is having a strong rookie season, and he leads the slate with a 28.3% strikeout rate. Chicago’s active roster has a 108 wRC+ and ranks 13th with a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Manoah offers a substantial salary discount from Lynn on DraftKings, while they are similarly priced on FanDuel.
Huascar Ynoa ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) returned from the injured list and threw 5.1 innings on 80 pitches in his last start against Miami. He has a more dangerous matchup tonight against the Yankees, but it is also a matchup that offers substantial strikeout upside. New York’s active roster has struck out 24.6% of the time against right-handed pitching this season, which is the eighth-highest rate in the league. Ynoa is tied with Lynn with a 27.8% strikeout rate this season and his 3.17 xFIP leads the slate.
Kyle Hendricks ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) has been a better real-life pitcher than DFS pitcher throughout his career. This season, he has not been a great real-life pitcher either, as he has a 4.48 xFIP and has allowed 1.56 home runs per nine innings. He has a fantastic matchup against the Rockies tonight in Wrigley Field, however. Home/road splits normally do not matter, but the Rockies’ home park is exceptionally favorable for hitters. Outside of Coors Field this season the Rockies rank 30th in wRC+ (67), 29th in wOBA (.271), 30th in ISO (.118), 29th in OPS (.613) and have the second-highest strikeout rate (25.8%). There are only 30 teams in Major League Baseball, so that is really bad.
Antonio Senzatela ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) is another pitcher who usually is unappealing to roster in DFS but who has a strong matchup tonight. Senzatela takes on the Cubs, who have been terrible since trading away most of their good hitters that trade deadline. Since Aug. 1, Chicago is 26th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA, 25th in ISO, 26th in OPS and first in strikeout rate — in fact, no other team in baseball is within 4 points of their 30.7% strikeout rate over that time. Chicago may not be as bad as the Rockies are outside of Coors Field, but they are close. Senzatela’s a 15.5% strikeout rate this season does not offer much upside, but he has a respectable 4.16 xFIP and has limited opponents to 0.72 home runs per nine innings.
Yan Gomes ($3,300 DraftKings/$2,600 FanDuel) faces a mediocre lefty tonight in Marco Gonzales. For the season, Gonzales has allowed a .374 wOBA and .263 xISO to right-handed hitters while only striking out 18.9%. Over the last three seasons, Gomes has posted a .410 xwOBA and .274 xISO in 196 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. The hitting conditions are not ideal in Oakland, but aside from that, everything looks good for Gomes.
Anthony Rizzo ($3,500 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) is completely mispriced on DraftKings and offers some value on FanDuel as well. Rizzo will face Ynoa tonight in Atlanta. While Ynoa is a good pitcher, Rizzo should still be more expensive. Over the last three seasons, Rizzo has a .363 wOBA and .224 ISO in 945 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. Ynoa has held lefties in check with a 27.8% strikeout rate, .298 xwOBA and .146 xISO allowed, but he is still a young pitcher who is a relatively unknown commodity. Rizzo stands out at this price point.
D.J. LeMahieu ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel) is similar to Rizzo in that he has a relatively difficult matchup against Ynoa, but he is also inexpensive. LeMahieu also plays a position that is difficult to fill out, so it makes him more valuable. He has struggled this season, with a .329 xwOBA and .109 xISO against right-handed pitching, but he has a .352 xwOBA against righties over the last three seasons. LeMahieu projects as one of the best point-per-dollar second base options at his price.
Ke’Bryan Hayes ($4,100 DraftKings/$2,800 FanDuel) is Awesemo’s highest-projected third baseman tonight against Humberto Mejia. Mejia has only thrown a total of 10 major league innings, all last season with Miami, but he does not project as someone likely to have success. FanGraphs has him as the Diamondbacks’ 31st-ranked prospect, while Steamer projects a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 home runs per nine innings. In 54.2 innings at Triple-A this season, Mejia posted a 5.92 xFIP while striking out 22% of hitters. Pitching in Pittsburgh will be much more forgiving than most parks in the Triple-A West, but it is still unlikely that Mejia will find success tonight. Hayes is one of the top hitting prospects in baseball, and the Pirates have the second-highest implied run total on tonight’s slate.
Carlos Correa ($4,600 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) is affordably priced against Daniel Lynch and the Royals tonight. Lynch is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and he has been better since being demoted to Triple-A earlier in the season. Since returning, Lynch has a 4.68 xFIP and 19.5% strikeout rate over five starts. Prior to his demotion, Lynch had a 5.51 xFIP and 15.2% strikeout rate across three starts. While his recent numbers are better, he still has not been dominant. Correa has a .356 xwOBA and .158 xISO in 313 plate appearances against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 seasons, while Lynch has allowed a .340 xwOBA and .201 xISO to right-handed hitters since returning from the minors.
Ketel Marte ($4,600 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) is one of the best hitters on the Diamondbacks, and he has a favorable matchup against Wil Crowe and the Pirates. Crowe has allowed 1.94 home runs per nine innings and a 4.83 xFIP this season. While most of the power that Crowe has allowed has been to right-handed hitters, Marte is a good enough hitter that he is likely to have success from the left side. Marte’s power numbers have been down in 154 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, but over the last three seasons, Marte has a .363 wOBA and .190 ISO in 749 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
Bryan Reynolds ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) is having an excellent season at the plate. He has a .391 xwOBA and .242 xISO in 344 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season. He is one of the top outfield options on tonight’s slate as one of the only above average hitters in the Pirates’ lineup.
Joey Gallo ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) is yet another New York bat that is underpriced for their upside tonight. Gallo has struck out 33.7% of the time against right-handed pitching this season and is facing a pitcher in Ynoa who can pile up strikeouts. While Gallo could certainly strike out three or four times tonight, he also has a .258 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. It will be difficult to find many other hitters with that type of power at his salary.
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Houston Astros
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- New York Yankees
Top Under-owned Stacks: Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics
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