The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in depth look into the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Aug. 12
Top Pitchers
Lance Lynn ($10,300 FanDuel) is not on DraftKings’ main slate, but he is available on FanDuel. He has a dangerous matchup against the Yankees in the Field of Dreams Game. There is also upside in facing the Yankees, however, especially while they are dealing with several injuries and COVID absences. Lynn has been excellent once again this season, striking out 27.9% of hitters and posting a 3.83 xFIP.
Yu Darvish ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) headlines the group of pitchers on DraftKings and is the third-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel. He has an excellent matchup against the Diamondbacks, who are one of the weakest offenses in baseball. The Diamondbacks’ active roster ranks 28th in WRC+ against right-handed pitching and seventh with a 24.9% strikeout rate. Darvish leads the slate in strikeout rate this season (30%), and he has pitched to a 3.68 xFIP.
Jose Berrios ($8,800 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) takes on the Angels, who offer more upside at this point in the season than they did earlier in the year. They are still missing Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, and they have called up two of their top hitting prospects in Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell. While these may end up being above-average hitters at some point, Marsh has struck out 39.5% of the time since joining the Angels this season, and Adell has struck out 38.8% of the time since first being called up last season. Berrios is another very good pitcher that is available on this slate, and he is affordably priced. He has struck out 25.8% of hitters this season and has a 3.62 xFIP.
Shohei Ohtani ($8,200 DraftKings/$10,100 FanDuel) is a very different option depending on the site. On FanDuel Ohtani is nearly the same price as Lynn and is more expensive than Darvish and Berrios, making him a contrarian GPP-only option in a difficult matchup against the Blue Jays. On DraftKings he is still a risky option, but his salary mitigates some of the risk. Ohtani has struck out 29.9% of hitters this season, posting a 3.69 xFIP and only 0.72 home runs allowed per nine innings. He has walked 10.2% of the hitters that he has faced, which could force him into some dangerous situations against a Toronto lineup that is loaded with power. The Blue Jays’ active roster ranks second in wRC+ (119) and 28th in strikeout rate (21.1%) against right-handed pitching this season.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.Logan Webb ($7,400 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) has one of the best matchups possible, as he takes on the Rockies outside of Coors Field. Colorado’s active roster ranks last in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, though they are 23rd in strikeout rate. They have struck out 25.7% of the time on the road this season compared to 19.4% of the time in Coors Field, however, so the overall strikeout rate does not tell the entire story. This is an excellent matchup for Webb, who has gone six innings in three straight starts and thrown at least 90 pitches in each of his last two starts after being brought along slowly in his return from the injured list. Webb has struck out 25.2% of hitters this season and has an excellent 3.08 xFIP.
German Marquez ($6,900 DraftKings/$9,000) has a difficult matchup against the Giants, who are one of the best offenses in baseball this season. He will be a tough sell outside of large-field GPPs on FanDuel, but he is underpriced for his talent level on DraftKings. He has struck out 25.4% of hitters and posted a 3.42 xFIP this season. Outside of Coors Field, he has struck out 26.8% of hitters and has a 3.33 xFIP. One negative for Marquez outside of the overall ability of the Giants offense is that their projected lineup has six left-handed hitters. While Marquez has held lefties to a .097 xISO and .312 xwOBA this season, he has only struck out 20.7% of lefties compared to 31.2% of righties.
Top Hitters
Victor Caratini ($3,000 DraftKings/$2,000 FanDuel) probably will not be necessary on FanDuel, but he stands out as a top value at the catcher position on DraftKings. The Padres are the only team on the slate in a remotely positive matchup, as they take on Taylor Widener. Widener has allowed 2.15 home runs per nine innings and has a 5.00 xFIP. Against left-handed hitters Widener has allowed a .362 xwOBA and .270 xISO. Caratini is not a great hitter, but a .320 xwOBA and .147 xISO against right-handed pitching since the 2019 season is enough to get it done at a weak catcher position.
Eric Hosmer ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) is not the most exciting name to roster at first base, but he is inexpensive and has the only positive matchup on the slate. As mentioned before, Widener has had home run issues this season, and he has allowed a .270 xISO to left-handed hitters. Hosmer has a .337 wOBA and .171 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season.
Jake Cronenworth ($4,100 DraftKings/$3,700) is yet another left-handed hitter from the Padres to roster tonight. Cronenworth has a .361 wOBA and .220 xISO against right-handed pitching since debuting in 2020, and he has a .353 wOBA and 123 wRC+ in 113 games.
Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,200 DraftKings/$2,800 FanDuel) is inexpensive despite being an uninspiring third base play. Cabrera has a difficult matchup against Darvish, but every hitter who is not on San Diego tonight has a difficult matchup. Darvish’s biggest issue this season has been the long ball, as he has allowed 1.40 home runs per nine innings. Cabrera has a .307 wOBA and .160 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of 2019.
Brandon Crawford ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,300 FanDuel) faces Marquez tonight in San Francisco. While the matchup is difficult, it is worth remembering that Marquez’s strikeout rate this season is about 11 points lower than it is against right-handed hitters. Marquez has done a very good job of limiting power to righties, but Crawford is relatively inexpensive for a hitter that has posted a .375 xwOBA and .270 xISO against right-handed pitching this season and is likely to be able to put the ball in play.
Trent Grisham ($4,100 DraftKings/$3,500) is another affordable left-handed bat on the Padres (though the righties are also good plays tonight, so do not read too much into only the lefties being listed here). Grisham has a .335 xwOBA and .181 xISO against right-handed pitching since 2019. While he is not as good as Cronenworth, he still projects as a strong value option.
LaMonte Wade, Jr. ($2,900 DraftKings/$2,900 FanDuel) is simply underpriced for the season that he is having. Wade has played in 62 games for the Giants and has posted a 131 wRC+ and .278 ISO. While his numbers are likely to regress over a larger sample, his underlying numbers are strong as well as he has posted a .355 xwOBA and .220 xISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Ketel Marte ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) offers some power and speed against Darvish. In addition to his home run issues, Darvish continues to be horrendous at controlling the running game. He has allowed 13 stolen bases so far this season and grades out as well below average at preventing stolen bases. Marte has struggled to hit for power in his limited plate appearances this season, with only a .121 xISO against right-handed pitching, but he does have a healthy .363 xwOBA. Since the start of the 2019 season the power numbers have been there as well, with a .180 xISO against righties. Marte has only one stolen base in 46 games, and he only stole one base in 45 games last season, but he did steal 10 bases in 144 games in 2019. If he gets on base, there is a good chance that Marte will look to run on Darvish.
Top Stacks
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- San Diego Padres
- Toronto Blue Jays
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