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The Deep Dive: MLB DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Thursday, 9/2

Adam Scherer



The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look at the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.

MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Sept. 2

Top Pitchers

Shane McClanahan ($10,100 DraftKings/$10,100 FanDuel) has the second-highest strikeout rate on tonight’s slate at 27.7%. He also has an excellent 3.24 xFIP in his rookie season. While Boston has a dangerous offense, their current lineup is a bit watered down, as they are missing a couple of players to the COVID list, including Xander Bogaerts. Hunter Renfroe, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez have all struck out less than 20% of the time against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season, but the rest of the lineup has strikeout rates of at least 24% with three hitters north of 30%.

Triston McKenzie ($9,300 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) missed his last start with shoulder fatigue but he is good to go for tonight’s matchup against the Royals. McKenzie leads the slate with a 28.4% strikeout rate this season. He has a 12.0% walk rate and 4.57 xFIP, but he has been a much better overall pitcher since returning from the minor leagues in July. In eight starts since his return, McKenzie has averaged 6.1 innings per start with a 25.8% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and 4.01 xFIP. Kansas City is a difficult team to strike out, with a 21.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, but they are also a below-average offense with an 88 wRC+ against right-handers.

Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,000 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) has a dangerous matchup against the Rays, but he does get a positive park shift pitching in Tropicana Field. He has struck out 27.5% of hitters this season with a 3.48 xFIP, which suggests that his 5.12 ERA is due to quite a bit of bad luck. While Tampa Bay has a lineup full of right-handed power, Rodriguez has been able to strike out 26.8% of right-handed hitters this season while holding them to a .119 xISO and .281 xwOBA.

Sandy Alcantara ($8,200 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) has been announced as Miami’s starter tonight against the Mets. Alcantara has put together a nice season, striking out 23.4% of hitters and has a 3.62 xFIP in 165.1 innings pitched. He is facing a Mets team that has an average strikeout rate of 24.7% and a 92 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. It is worth noting that Alcantara has been considerably better in the friendly confines of Marlins Park this season. He has struck out 25.7% of hitters and has a 3.12 xFIP and .235 wOBA allowed at home compared to a 21.1% strikeout rate with a 4.14 xFIP and .327 wOBA allowed on the road. His walk rate also increases from 5.4% at home to 8.5% on the road.

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Carlos Carrasco ($8,000 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) is likely to be the most popular pitcher on tonight’s slate. He has thrown 78 pitches in each of his last two starts and gets one of the best matchups possible against the Miami Marlins. Miami has an 81 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and has an average strikeout rate of 25.1%. Since returning from the injured list, Carrasco has struck out 23% of hitters and has a 3.67 xFIP.

Mike Minor ($7,200 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) is an average pitcher and he is reasonably priced in an above average matchup against the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland’s active roster has struck out 22.6% of the time with a 91 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Minor has struck out 22.8% of hitters and has a 4.34 xFIP this season.

Mitch Keller ($6,200 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) has struggled this season with a 5.08 xFIP and 11.1% walk rate. His strikeout rate has also decreased from previous seasons and currently sits at just 19.9%. It is likely that he struggles tonight but, if he is going to have success against anyone it would be the Cubs. Chicago leads all of baseball with a 30.4% strikeout rate since the trade deadline. They have an 88 wRC+ over that time as well.

Top Hitters

Travis d’Arnaud ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,300 FanDuel)

Freddie Freeman ($5,900 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel)

Brendan Rodgers ($4,600 DraftKings/$2,700 FanDuel)

Ehire Adrianza ($2,000 DraftKings/$2,000 FanDuel)

Jonathan Villar ($3,900 DraftKings/$2,500 FanDuel)

Joc Pederson ($3,900 DraftKings/$2,900 FanDuel)

Jorge Soler ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel)

Raimel Tapia ($3,900 DraftKings/$2,500 FanDuel)

Top Stacks

Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.

  1. Atlanta Braves
  2. Colorado Rockies

Top Under-owned Stacks: Cleveland Indians, Chicago Cubs

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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