The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in depth look into the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Aug. 19
Top Pitchers
Brandon Woodruff ($9,200 DraftKings/$10,700 FanDuel) leads tonight’s slate, with a 29.9% strikeout rate and 3.03 xFIP. He is in the midst of an excellent season for Milwaukee and is one of the best pitching options tonight. His matchup against the Cardinals is mediocre as their active roster has only struck out 22% of the time against right-handed pitching this season, but they also have produced just a 90 wRC+.
Luis Castillo ($8,500 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) has the best combination of talent and matchup tonight as he faces the Marlins. Castillo started the season slowly in terms of his strikeout numbers, but he has picked things up recently. For the season, Castillo has struck out 23% of hitters and has a 3.85 xFIP. Over his last 10 starts, dating back to June 25th, Castillo has struck out 25.3% of hitters and has a 3.62 xFIP and over his last five starts he has struck out 27.4% of hitters and has a 3.42 xFIP. He struck out 30.5% of hitters last season, so it is not surprising to see his strikeout numbers trending up as the season goes on. The Marlins’ active roster has an 84 wRC+ and 24.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Jameson Taillon ($6,300 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) is underpriced on DraftKings and stands out as the top SP2 option if you cannot afford to pair Woodruff and Castillo. Taillon has been a mediocre pitcher this season and has a 4.60 xFIP and 1.37 home runs per nine innings, but he also has a respectable 23.4% strikeout rate. Taillon has been most susceptible to left-handed power this season, allowing a .191 xISO and .321 xwOBA to lefties compared to a .136 xISO and .283 xwOBA to righties. Since the start of last season, Max Kepler has a 124 wRC+ and .264 ISO against right-handed pitching and Jorge Polanco has a 108 wRC+ and .176 ISO. Luis Arraez has a 130 wRC+ but only a .102 ISO. Other than that, everyone in the Twins’ projected lineup is either right-handed or has been a below average hitter over that time.
Top Hitters
Tucker Barnhart ($2,600 DraftKings/$3,100 FanDuel) projects as a good value option at catcher if he is in the lineup for the Reds tonight. Cincinnati has a 5.4 implied run total tonight against Zach Thompson and the Marlins. Thompson started the year strong but has regressed a bit as the season has gone on. Overall, he has allowed a .332 xwOBA and .157 xISO to left-handed hitters. Barnhart has a 106 wRC+ and .168 ISO against right-handed pitchers since the start of last season. If Tyler Stephenson starts at catcher, he will be a strong option as well.
Anthony Rizzo ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) is one of the top options at any position tonight, especially on DraftKings where he is significantly discounted. Rizzo has produced a .364 wOBA and .226 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season and he will face John Gant and the Twins’ bullpen. Gant has allowed a .371 xwOBA and .162 xISO to left-handed hitters this season.
Jorge Polanco ($3,200 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) has a .351 wOBA and .193 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season. As mentioned before, most of Taillon’s struggles this season have come against left-handed power. He has allowed a .191 xISO to lefties and Polanco should benefit from hitting in New York.
Mike Moustakas ($4,600 DraftKings/$2,500 FanDuel) is extremely underpriced on FanDuel and is a strong option on DraftKings as well. Moustakas has a .347 wOBA and .258 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season and is hitting in one of the most hitter friendly parks against Zach Thompson.
Willy Adames ($5,200 DraftKings/$3,300 FanDuel) has a variety of ways to have success tonight against Jon Lester. Lester has struck out just 14.1% of right-handed hitters this season while allowing a .359 xwOBA and .181 xISO. Lester has also allowed 10 stolen bases in 91.1 innings pitched this season, so Adames has stolen base upside as well. Adames has produced a .316 xwOBA and .206 xISO against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season.
Joey Gallo ($4,500 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) is hitting clean-up for the Yankees tonight. New York has the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.5 runs. Gallo is one of the best power hitters in baseball and has a .256 xISO against right-handed pitching this season. Gallo’s biggest weakness is his inability to make contact, but John Gant has struck out just 17.5% of left-handed hitters this season, so Gallo is likely to be able to put the ball in play.
Max Kepler ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel) is the best power hitting lefty on the Twins and that sets him up nicely for his matchup against Taillon. Kepler has a .354 wOBA and .275 ISO in 829 plate appearances against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season. Do not hesitate to roster Kepler even if you have Taillon on DraftKings. There are only four games so the opportunity cost is lower, and, at Taillon’s inexpensive salary, he can easily have a good DFS performance while giving up damage to Kepler.
Avisail Garcia ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,000 FanDuel) gets a great matchup against Jon Lester tonight. Garcia has a .390 xwOBA and .218 xISO in 333 plate appearances against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season and Lester gives up plenty of power and production to right-handed hitters. Garcia also offers some stolen base upside as he has swiped six bags this season.
Top Stacks
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Milwaukee Brewers
Top Under-owned Stacks: Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds
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