The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look at the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Sept. 23
Lance McCullers ($10,100 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) has a strong strikeout matchup against the Angels. The Angels’ active roster has a 98 wRC+ and 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Since the trade deadline they have struck out 25% of the time and have a 79 wRC+. While their season-long wRC+ is close to league average, keep in mind that Shohei Ohtani is pulling that number up drastically, with a 149 wRC+ of his own. McCullers has struck out 27.5% of hitters this season and has a 3.66 xFIP.
Luis Castillo ($8,900 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) is coming off of a dominant start against the Dodgers his last time out where he struck out 10 over 6.1 innings pitched. For the season, Castillo has struck out 24% of hitters, but his strikeout rate has increased recently after a slow start to the season. He has struck out 27.2% of hitters over his last 10 starts and has a 3.05 xFIP, and that is much more in line with his career numbers, as he has struck out 26.2% of hitters since debuting in 2017, and he struck out 30.5% and 28.9% of hitters in 2020 and 2019, respectively. The Nationals have been the fifth-most difficult team to strike out since the trade deadline, with a 19.7% strikeout rate, and they also have a 107 wRC+ over that time.
Aaron Nola ($8,500 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) is the clear top pitching option on tonight’s slate as long as the weather in this game cooperates. He has a premier matchup against the Pirates and is completely mispriced, especially on DraftKings. Nola has the highest strikeout rate on the slate (30.3%), and he has been better at home for years. This season he has allowed a .266 wOBA, striking out 34.1% and walking 3.6% in 75.2 innings pitched at home, compared to a .317 wOBA, 27.3% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in 93 innings pitched on the road. Since the start of the 2019 season, he has struck out 31.5% of hitters and posted a 3.19 xFIP and 7.5% walk rate at home, compared to a 26.7% strikeout rate, 7.7% walks and 3.75 xFIP on the road. Pittsburgh’s active roster has an 81 wRC+ this season, and they are tied with the Marlins for the second-worst offense in baseball, ahead of only the Rangers. The only slight negative for Nola is that Pittsburgh has only struck out 22.9% of the time, but compared to all of the positives working in his favor, that is not much of a concern tonight.
Glenn Otto ($6,700 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) is an unproven commodity as a pitcher. The Rangers received him from the Yankees in the Joey Gallo trade, and he has made four starts since joining the team. In those 16.1 innings pitched, he has struck out 24.7% of hitters but has also posted a 9.37 ERA. His underlying numbers are much better, however, as he has a 3.61 xFIP and 5.18 xERA. It is difficult to project him with much confidence since he has thrown a total of 46.2 innings above Double-A in his career, and he had never pitched above High-A prior to this season. He seems to have quality strikeout stuff, however, based on a 40.7% strikeout rate in about 65 Double-A innings this season and about a 24.5% strikeout rate between Triple-A and the majors so far. He also has had a difficult stretch of matchups since joining the Rangers, as he has faced the Astros twice, the Athletics and the Angels. While the Angels have struck out 25% of the time against right-handed pitching this season, Houston has only struck out 20.3% of the time, and Oakland 21% of the time. By comparison, Otto’s opponent tonight, the Orioles, has struck out 25.2% of the time and have a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.
J.T. Realmuto ($5,100 DraftKings/$3,300 FanDuel)
Brad Miller ($3,800 DraftKings/$2,300 FanDuel)
Nick Solak ($3,000 DraftKings/$2,800 FanDuel)
Eugenio Suarez ($4,400 DraftKings/$2,700 FanDuel)
Kyle Farmer ($3,800 DraftKings/$2,800 FanDuel)
Bryce Harper ($6,000 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel)
Adolis Garcia ($4,600 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel)
Cedric Mullins ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel)
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies
Top Under-owned Stacks: Houston Astros, Washington Nationals
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