The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look at the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Sept. 30
Robbie Ray ($10,000 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) takes on the Yankees as he looks to lock up the American League Cy Young and help Toronto catch the Red Sox for the second Wild Card spot. Ray offers tremendous strikeout upside with a 32.5% strikeout rate this season. He has only walked 6.7% of hitters and has a 3.24 xFIP. His 2.68 ERA is the result of some good luck, most notably an 89.6% left-on-base rate, but his underlying numbers are still strong. The matchup is dangerous, as the Yankees have plenty of power in their lineup, but it is possible that they will use a weaker lineup than usual, with Joey Gallo and Luke Voit both banged up.
Lance McCullers ($9,600 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) is similar to Ray in that he has a matchup with plenty of strikeout upside but is also facing a dangerous offense. The Rays active roster has a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, but they also have a 115 wRC+ and .204 ISO. McCullers has struck out 27.3% of hitters this season and has a 3.68 xFIP while allowing just 0.69 home runs per nine innings. He leads the slate with an elite 55.7% ground-ball rate. If he is on top of his game, he should be able to post a big game against the Rays thanks to the combination of above-average strikeout stuff and an ability to keep the ball on the ground. McCullers will not have much margin for error, however, as he has walked 11.3% of hitters this season and the Rays lineup can do a lot of damage in a hurry if he is not locating well.
Joe Ryan ($9,300 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) was acquired from the Rays in the Nelson Cruz trade and he has been impressive in his time with the Twins. In four starts for Minnesota, Ryan has struck out 32.1% of hitters while walking only 3.8% and posting a 3.54 xFIP. In 66 total innings at Triple-A this season between the Rays and the Twins, Ryan struck out 92 hitters while walking only 12. He has a favorable matchup tonight against the Tigers, who have struck out 25.6% of the time against right-handed pitching and posting a 91 wRC+. The only real concern with Ryan is how deep the Twins want him to pitch into the game. He was pulled after five innings in each of his last two starts despite throwing only 86 and 67 pitches. He was pitching well in both games, striking out 11 with two earned runs last game against the Cubs and striking out five with one earned run two starts ago against Cleveland. If the Twins plan to only let him throw five innings regardless of results, his ceiling is not quite as high. Still, pitching is thin on this slate, so Ryan looks like a strong option.
Rich Hill ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) is likely to be one of the most popular pitchers on the slate tonight, as he faces the Marlins. The Marlins’ 3.2 implied run total is the lowest on the slate, and Hill is affordably priced. He has struck out 22.6% of hitters this season and has a 4.63 xFIP. While those numbers are not ideal for an extremely popular pitcher, the matchup and lack of alternatives makes him stand out on this slate. Miami’s active roster has a 26.6% strikeout rate and 80 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Hill also threw 97 pitches in his last start and has now thrown at least 83 pitches in six straight starts.
Nick Pivetta ($7,000 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) has better strikeout stuff than Hill but also has a little bit more difficult matchup against the Orioles. Pivetta has struck out 26% of hitters this season and has a 4.33 xFIP. Baltimore’s active roster has a 25.3% strikeout rate and 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. He has struggled to go deep into games recently, lasting 5.1 innings or less in six straight starts and eight of his last 10. His price point mitigates most of the risk, however, and the lack of opportunity cost at pitcher tonight makes Pivetta look like one of the stronger options.
Mitch Garver ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,000 FanDuel)
Bobby Dalbec ($3,600 DraftKings/$3,000 FanDuel)
Trea Turner ($5,400 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel)
Josh Donaldson ($4,400 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel)
Amed Rosario ($4,200 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel)
Hunter Renfroe ($4,900 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel)
Byron Buxton ($4,700 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel)
Michael Conforto ($2,800 DraftKings/$2,300 FanDuel)
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Boston Red Sox
- Cleveland Indians
- Los Angeles Dodgers
Top Under-owned Stacks: Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays
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