The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in depth look into the top options on the day’s MLB DFS slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Aug. 10
Top Pitchers
Max Scherzer ($11,000 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel) stands out as one of the top pitchers on tonight’s slate as he faces the Phillies. Philadelphia has a 3.8 implied run total, and they have several regular starters that are considered questionable for tonight’s game, so there is a chance there will be a watered-down lineup. Scherzer leads the slate with a 34.5% strikeout rate this season. He also has an excellent 3.43 xFIP. His only real issue has been that he has allowed 1.45 home runs per nine innings. This is somewhat concerning since Philadelphia is a favorable park for hitters, but Scherzer still projects as the highest-scoring pitcher on tonight’s slate.
Logan Gilbert ($9,600 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel) has had an excellent rookie season, and he is currently projected to be the most popular pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Gilbert has struck out 28.2% of hitters this season while posting a 3.87 xFIP and only walking 6.4% of hitters. He has an excellent matchup against the Rangers. The Rangers’ active roster has the second-lowest wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season at 78, and they rank in the middle of the pack in strikeout rate at 23.9%. Gilbert has struggled a bit in his last few starts, but his fastball velocity and plate discipline in those starts do not suggest that is the case.
Alex Wood ($9,800 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) faces the Diamondbacks tonight in San Francisco. The Diamondbacks have been one of the best teams to roster pitchers against recently, and Wood should benefit from pitching in San Francisco, as it is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. For the season, Wood has struck out 25.1% of hitters, posting a 3.68 xFIP and allowing 1.05 home runs per nine innings. He will most likely face a predominantly right-handed lineup tonight, but he has a 25.9% strikeout rate, .306 xwOBA and .144 xISO against righties this year. The only concern with Wood is that his salary is elevated as a result of this matchup, particularly on DraftKings, and he is still getting quite a bit of ownership. Arizona’s active roster actually has decent numbers against left-handed pitching this season, with a 102 wRC+, .169 ISO and only a 22.1% strikeout rate. Wood looks like a strong option but not quite as appealing as Scherzer or Gilbert.
Check out today’s MLB Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock for all of the breaking news, starting lineups and expert DraftKings and FanDuel picks.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,300 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) has a scary matchup against the Rays in Fenway Park. He is also available at a discount compared to the previously mentioned pitchers, however, and he has excellent underlying numbers this season. Rodriguez has the third-highest strikeout rate on the slate, and he is tied with Gilbert for the third-best strikeout/walk rate at 21.8% (excluding Carlos Carrasco, as he has only made two starts this season). Rodriguez has a 5.33 ERA this season, but his 3.30 xFIP suggests that he has gotten very unlucky. Similarly, he has allowed a .341 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .334 wOBA to right-handed hitters, but his xwOBA is lower to hitters from both sides of the plate (.328 to lefties and .286 to righties). Part of the reason that Rodriguez has gotten unlucky could have to do with the Green Monster in left field at his home park, which could be an issue tonight as well. The Rays’ active roster has the fifth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season, along with a 101 wRC+ and .154 ISO. There are plenty of dangerous bats in the Tampa Bay lineup, but Rodriguez has a very high ceiling and is not getting much ownership.
Carlos Carrasco ($8,000 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) is a difficult pitcher to project tonight. On one hand, he has an excellent matchup against the Washington Nationals. On the other hand, he has only thrown 58 and 62 pitches in his first two starts of the season after spending the first half on the injured list. If his ownership projection is low, that is a gamble worth taking, but at the moment he is projected for about 20% ownership on DraftKings.
Jake Odorizzi ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) has one of the best matchups possible against the Rockies outside of Coors Field, and unlike pitchers like Gilbert and Wood, his salary did not increase as a result. Odorizzi is far from a great pitcher, as he has only struck out 21.4% of hitters this season while allowing 1.96 home runs per nine innings and pitching to a 4.81 xFIP. Colorado’s active roster has the lowest wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, however. It is difficult to be confident in Odorizzi regardless of matchup, but he should have the advantage here, and his price tag is reasonable.
Zac Gallen ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) has a more difficult matchup than Odorizzi, but he is also the superior pitcher. Gallen has struck out 27.3% of hitters and has a 4.10 xFIP this season. He has had some issues with walks and power, as he has walked 10.9% of hitters and allowed 1.3 home runs per nine innings. Pitching in San Francisco should help to mitigate some of the home run issues, but the Giants’ active roster also has the fourth-highest wRC+ (111) and second-highest ISO (.204) against right-handed pitching this season. Gallen is a risky option, but his salary is too low for his skill level.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.Aaron Ashby ($4,400 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) has only made one start in the majors this season, and it went about as poorly as it possibly could. He faced the Cubs on June 30 and gave up seven runs (four earned) in two-thirds of an inning. He walked three hitters and did not strike out anyone. That said, tonight’s Cubs’ lineup will be entirely different than it was in June, as they traded most of their good hitters to other teams and Willson Contreras is catching the first game of today’s doubleheader, so it is doubtful that he will be in the lineup tonight. Ashby has dominated Triple-A this season, with a 36% strikeout rate and 2.28 xFIP in 62.1 innings pitched. He threw six innings in his most recent outing, so he should be reasonably stretched out.
Top Hitters
Kyle Higashioka ($3,300 DraftKings/$2,400 FanDuel) is not really necessary on FanDuel, but he offers salary relief on DraftKings. He is facing Daniel Lynch, who is one of Kansas City’s top pitching prospects and has looked better since returning from a demotion to Triple-A following an awful start to his rookie season. Still, the hitting weather in this game is favorable, and the Yankees have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate. Higashioka only has 104 plate appearances against left-handed in his MLB career, but he has done damage with a .315 xwOBA and .255 xISO. He has been a below-average hitter in his career, with a .265 wOBA and 64 wRC+, but he does have a .201 ISO. Punting the catcher position with someone who can at least drive the ball when he makes contact is not a bad idea.
Pete Alonso ($4,200 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) is mispriced for a favorable matchup against Paolo Espino and the Nationals. Alonso is one of the best power hitters in baseball, and Espino has allowed 1.48 home runs per nine innings this season while only striking out 16.5% of hitters. Against right-handed hitters specifically, Espino has a 20.1% strikeout rate but has allowed a .251 xISO and .341 xwOBA. Alonso has a .361 wOBA and .267 ISO against right-handed pitching in 954 career plate appearances.
Whit Merrifield ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,100 FanDuel) is one of the best value options at second base tonight. Merrifield will face Nestor Cortes, who has been a solid pitcher this season. Cortes is now going deeper into games, however, so it is likely that there will be a drop-off in his numbers going forward. Merrifield has a .335 wOBA and .172 ISO in 394 plate appearances against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season.
Ke’Bryan Hayes ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,000 FanDuel) does not typically get talked about too much since he is on a bad offensive team, but he has a favorable matchup tonight against J.A. Happ. Happ has only struck out 17% of right-handed hitters this season while allowing a .378 xwOBA and .248 xISO. Hayes only has 87 plate appearances against left-handed pitching in his career, but he has been an above average hitter overall with a 124 wRC+ and .188 ISO in 82 total games played between last season and this season. He is one of the top prospects in baseball and has plenty of upside against Happ.
Tim Anderson ($6,000 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) is very expensive on DraftKings but is reasonably priced on FanDuel. Even on DraftKings, he grades out as one of the top shortstop options as he faces Griffin Jax and the Twins. Jax is not a highly regarded prospect, and he has not done anything at Triple-A or with the Twins to change that opinion. In his limited time with the Twins, Jax has allowed a .378 xwOBA and .307 xISO to right-handed hitters while only striking out 15.9%. Anderson’s numbers against right-handed pitching have been subpar, with only a .322 wOBA and .129 ISO since the start of last season, but Jax is far from an average right-handed pitcher.
Giancarlo Stanton ($4,500 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) is in a high-upside spot against Lynch and the Royals. As mentioned before, Lynch has looked better in his most recent starts, so this may be a more difficult matchup than it would seem on paper. Still, Stanton has a long track record as one of the best power hitters in baseball. He has a .360 xwOBA and .200 xISO in 157 plate appearances against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season, and he has a 126 wRC+ and .189 ISO this season.
Eloy Jimenez ($4,400 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel) and Luis Robert ($3,400 DraftKings/$2,700 FanDuel) stand out as two of the top value bats on DraftKings and FanDuel as they face Jax. As mentioned before, Jax has been hit very hard during his time with the Twins. Jimenez and Robert are two of the top prospects in baseball, and they are underpriced in this matchup. Jimenez appears to be getting his timing back after spending time on the injured list, as he has homered twice in each of the last two games. He has a .265 ISO and 127 wRC+ in his career. Robert returned to Chicago’s lineup a couple of games ago after a prolonged absence due to injury. In 26 total games this season Robert has a 130 wRC+ and .150 ISO. In 82 career games with the White Sox he has a 110 wRC+ and .185 ISO. He also has stolen four bases in 26 games this season after stealing nine bases in 56 games last season.
Subscribe to Our Awesemo Odds on YouTube Channel We here at Awesemo are committed to bringing you the very best sports betting advice in the business. To help get the best bang for your buck, we are pleased to introduce the NEW Awesemo Odds YouTube channel! All of your favorite Awesemo personalities will appear regular on Awesemo Odds, including Dave "Loughy" Loughran, Josh Engleman, Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer, Ben Rasa and more. This channel will be a FREE one-stop shop for all of Awesemo's betting strategy, advice and picks videos for all of your favorite sports to wager on, from NBA, NFL, MLB, PGA and much more. Join us now!Nick Castellanos ($4,400 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) remains underpriced in a good matchup against left-hander Drew Smyly. Smyly has given up more power to lefties than righties this season and over the last three seasons, but he has still allowed a .173 xISO to righties this season and a .208 xISO to righties since the start of 2019. Castellanos has a .399 xwOBA and .277 xISO against left-handed pitching in 264 plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season.
Top Stacks
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Chicago White Sox
- New York Yankees
- Detroit Tigers
Top Contrarian Stacks: St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds
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