The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look at the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Oct. 12
Lance McCullers ($8,200 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) is one of the top options tonight on a slate with a lot of questionable pitching. McCullers has struck out 27% of hitters and has a 3.69 xFIP this season, and his team has a 2-1 lead in the series, so his leash is likely to be somewhat longer than it would be if his team were facing elimination. McCullers is also on normal rest, which cannot be said for some of the other options on tonight’s slate.
Carlos Rodon ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) has not pitched since Sept. 29 when he threw 69 pitches against the Reds. Rodon was one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, with a 34.6% strikeout rate and 3.17 xFIP. He would normally be a top option tonight, but there are some big question marks. First, he has a very difficult matchup against the Astros. On top of that, Rodon dealt with some injuries and missed time down the stretch, so there is reason to be somewhat concerned about his effectiveness tonight. The White Sox also announced that Lucas Giolito will be available out of the bullpen, which suggests that Rodon will have a very short leash in a must-win game.
Walker Buehler ($8,500 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel) has yet to be announced as the Dodgers’ starter, but he is a possibility as the Dodgers face elimination. The longer that the Dodgers wait to announce a starting pitcher, the more appealing Buehler becomes in GPPs because his ownership will be much lower than it otherwise would be if he is confirmed as the starter after people have already locked McCullers and/or Rodon into their lineups. Buehler would be a risky option since he is on short rest and facing a dangerous San Francisco team, but the Giants have the lowest implied run total on the slate, and there is plenty of risk with all of the pitching options tonight.
If Buehler does not get the start, the most likely starter is Tony Gonsolin. Gonsolin should have an extremely short leash since the Dodgers bullpen is well rested, and they could potentially have Buehler ready to go at the first sign of trouble.
To sum up this situation, it is not clear who the starter is going to be for the Dodgers. They have suggested that it could be Buehler, but they have also suggested it could be Gonsolin. There is also a non-zero chance that they will do something different. If no starter has been announced by the time that the first game locks, rostering Buehler in the hope that he gets the start at low ownership offers upside. If he does not start, swap him to Anthony DeSclafani, which is not the worst alternative in the world. If Buehler is announced as the starter, he is neck and neck with McCullers as the top option. If Gonsolin is announced as the starter, he may be removed from the game at the first sign of trouble.
Update: Charlie Morton ($7,800 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) has been announced as the starter tonight for Atlanta. Morton is pitching on three days rest, so he is a bit riskier than usual- and it wouldn’t be surprising if his leash is a bit shorter as well. Still, he is one of the most talented pitchers available tonight and most of the alternatives have concerns of their own. Morton has struck out 28.6 percent of hitters this season with a 3.31 xFIP.
Travis d’Arnaud ($3,400 DraftKings/$2,200 FanDuel)
Rowdy Tellez ($2,800 DraftKings/$2,300 FanDuel)
Kolten Wong ($3,700 DraftKings/$2,700 FanDuel)
Austin Riley ($4,500 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel)
Willy Adames ($3,900 DraftKings/$3,300 FanDuel)
Christian Yelich ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,000 FanDuel)
Jorge Soler ($3,900 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel)
Adam Duvall ($4,100 DraftKings/$2,800 FanDuel)
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Atlanta Braves
- Houston Astros
- Milwaukee Brewers
Top Under-owned Stacks: Astros, Chicago White Sox
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