The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look at the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Sept. 28
Zack Wheeler ($10,500 DraftKings/$10,700 FanDuel) is the most expensive pitcher on the slate as he takes on the Braves. The Braves have a dangerous offense with a 102 wRC+ and .204 ISO since the trade deadline. There are some strikeouts to be had in their lineup, however, as Adam Duvall, Austin Riley, Jorge Soler and Dansby Swanson have all struck out at least 25% of the time against right-handed pitching over the last three seasons. Charlie Morton also has a 44.2% strikeout rate, so Wheeler is likely to pick up a free strikeout whenever the opposing pitcher’s spot comes up. Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, with a 29.2% strikeout rate and 2.86 xFIP. He is far from a must-play on a deep pitching slate, but he is one of the top options despite a relatively difficult matchup.
Brandon Woodruff ($10,300 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) leads the slate with a 30.2% strikeout rate, and he also has an excellent 2.98 xFIP. Woodruff faces the Cardinals, who have had one of the best offenses in baseball since the trade deadline, with a 114 wRC+, and they have a relatively low 22.4% strikeout rate. They only have a 94 wRC+ against right-handed pitching overall this season, however. All that said, Woodruff’s stuff is good enough that he can pick up strikeouts against anyone. One potential negative for Woodruff is that the Brewers have clinched their division and have essentially no chance of passing the winner of the NL West in playoff seeding. Woodruff has been pulled after six innings regardless of his pitch count recently, and that should be the case again. With the division officially clinched, however, there is a non-zero chance that his leash will be even shorter.
Chris Sale ($9,400 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) faces the Orioles, who are competing with the Diamondbacks for the worst record in baseball. It may or may not be a coincidence, but Cedric Mullins has missed the last two games with hamstring soreness. Anthony Santander also left Baltimore’s last game early. Even if Mullins and Santander are available, it is still a favorable spot for Sale. He only struck out one hitter when he faced the Orioles two starts ago, but that will not be the case again. Sale has struck out 26.4% of hitters since returning from Tommy John surgery. He has also been effective from a run prevention standpoint, posting a 2.57 ERA and 3.38 xFIP. The biggest concern for Sale is how deep into the game Boston will allow him to go. He has pitched in a lot of blowouts, however, and has thrown at least 86 pitches in three of his last four starts. If this game is competitive and Sale is at 79 pitches through five innings, like he was the last time he faced Baltimore, he should get another inning since the Red Sox are fighting for a playoff spot.
Charlie Morton ($9,200 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) is having an excellent season, with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 3.36 xFIP. The only pitchers on tonight’s slate with a higher strikeout rate are Woodruff, Yu Darvish (against the Dodgers) and Wheeler. Morton is facing the Phillies, who have a 95 wRC+ and 22.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The Phillies’ projected lineup, excluding Wheeler, has an average strikeout rate of just 20.4% against right-handed pitching over the last the last three seasons. Morton has a high ceiling based on his talent level alone, but this is a difficult spot to generate strikeouts.
Walker Buehler ($9,100 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) has struck out 25.4% of hitters and has a 3.64 xFIP. Those numbers usually stand out, but tonight they are a little bit less exciting given all of the other pitching options. He is relatively inexpensive, however, and the Padres have just a 3.2 implied run total. The Padres active roster has only struck out 20.9% of the time since the trade deadline and has a 100 wRC+. Buehler is a viable option at his price, but he will be better if he gets relatively low ownership.
Logan Webb ($8,900 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) has been a pleasant surprise for the Giants this season, as he has struck out 26.2% of hitters and has a slate-leading 2.83 xFIP. He has an excellent matchup against the Diamondbacks tonight in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. Arizona’s active roster has a 23.8% strikeout rate and 85 wRC+ since the trade deadline. Overall this season they have a 24.9% strikeout rate and 78 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Gary Sanchez ($3,500 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel)
C.J. Cron ($3,600 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel)
Brendan Rodgers ($3,900 DraftKings/$3,100 FanDuel)
Note: Rodgers is considered questionable for tonight’s game. If he is out, Garrett Hampson is likely to start in his place, and he is also extremely underpriced.
Yoan Moncada ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel)
Trevor Story ($4,600 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel)
Lane Thomas ($4,100 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel)
Hunter Renfroe ($4,200 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel)
J.D. Martinez ($4,100 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel)
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Washington Nationals
- Colorado Rockies
- Boston Red Sox
Top Under-owned Stacks: Nationals, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees
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