The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look at the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Aug. 31
Top Pitchers
Walker Buehler ($10,500 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) has a difficult matchup against the Braves, and he is expensive compared to the other top tier arms that are pitching tonight. Still, Buehler projects as a strong option. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, striking out 27.1% of hitters with a 3.49 xFIP and averaging about 6.5 innings pitched per start. Atlanta’s active roster has a 100 wRC+ and .195 ISO with a 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Brandon Woodruff ($9,400 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel) is having arguably the best season of any pitcher on tonight’s slate. He leads the slate in strikeout rate (29.9%) and xFIP (3.02). He has a difficult matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who have a 108 wRC+, .199 ISO and 24.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. While the matchup is difficult, it is a positive park shift for Woodruff and the cool weather should make it more challenging for hitters as well.
Lucas Giolito ($8,800 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) has a much better matchup than Buehler or Woodruff as he takes on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Giolito is relatively expensive on FanDuel, but he is the clear number one pitching option at his DraftKings salary. The Pirates have an 81 wRC+ with a 23.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Giolito has struck out 28.3% of hitters with a 3.68 xFIP this season.
Blake Snell ($7,700 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) is a volatile pitcher, but he continues to be priced at a salary that mitigates most of the risk in rostering him- especially on DraftKings where the opportunity cost is lower. Snell has the second highest strikeout rate on the slate at 29.7% and he has a 3.85 xFIP. He is facing the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight in Arizona. The Diamondbacks have hit left-handed pitching well this season with a 109 wRC+ and only a 21.3% strikeout rate. It is still difficult to consider them as difficult a matchup as teams like the Braves or Giants, however, since they only have an 89 wRC+ and a 24% strikeout rate overall this season. If you are looking for reasons to avoid Snell, it is worth noting that he threw 122 pitches in his last start. While his increased pitch count recently bodes well for his fantasy upside, there is a non-zero chance that he is not as sharp tonight after throwing so many pitches in his last start.
Trevor Williams ($6,600 DraftKings/N/A FanDuel) has a favorable matchup against the Miami Marlins in a seven-inning game. Williams has only thrown 27 and 23 pitches in his last two appearances, but he threw 52 pitches in 4.1 innings in the game before that and six innings in a Triple-A game four appearances ago. The assumption is that Williams will go about five innings and 60 pitches or so. He has struck out 23% of hitters with a 4.05 xFIP as a starter this season so, if he is able to go five innings, he is likely to offer acceptable production for his salary.
Top Hitters
Yan Gomes ($3,900 DraftKings/$2,600 FanDuel) faces Tarik Skubal tonight in Detroit. Skubal has very good strikeout stuff and is having a strong rookie season overall. He has given up plenty of power, however, and Gomes gets a positive park shift hitting in Detroit. Since the start of the 2019 season, Gomes has a .409 xwOBA and .271 xISO in 205 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Skubal has allowed a .359 xwOBA and .245 xISO to right-handed hitters this season.
Anthony Rizzo ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) has a favorable matchup against Jaime Barria, who is expected to start in place of Shohei Ohtani. Rizzo is inexpensive and has produced a .334 wOBA, .192 ISO and 109 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the start of last season.
Jorge Polanco ($4,100 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) has been one of the best hitting second basemen this season and he gets a nice matchup against Zach Davies. Polanco has a .357 xwOBA and .220 xISO in 338 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season while Davies has allowed a .360 xwOBA and .155 xISO to left-handed hitters.
Josh Donaldson ($3,900 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) is favorably priced against Davies. Donaldson has a .399 xwOBA and .220 xISO against right-handed pitching this season. Davies has given up a little bit more production to righties than lefties with a .368 xwOBA and .197 xISO.
Jake Cronenworth ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) has a relatively difficult matchup tonight against Zac Gallen. Gallen has struck out 24.9% of left-handed hitters this season while holding them to a .269 xwOBA and .067 xISO. Cronenworth has a .355 xwOBA and .179 xISO against right-handed pitching. While the matchup is not ideal, shortstop is a relatively weak position, and most of the good hitters are expensive, so Cronenworth stands out at his price point- particularly on DraftKings.
George Springer ($4,800 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) is back from the injured list and he gets a fantastic matchup against Keegan Akin and the Orioles. Akin has only struck out 17.2% of right-handed hitters this season while allowing a .363 xwOBA and .199 xISO. Since the start of the 2019 season, Springer has posted a .395 xwOBA and .277 xISO in 270 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Byron Buxton ($3,200 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) is severely underpriced on DraftKings and he is a strong option on FanDuel as well. Buxton missed a large portion of the season with an injury, but he has been very productive when healthy. In 182 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, Buxton has a .396 xwOBA and .359 xISO. As mentioned before, Davies has allowed a .368 xwOBA and .197 xISO to right-handed hitters this season.
Luis Robert ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) stands out as one of the top values from the White Sox tonight. Chicago’s lineup is expensive overall, but Robert is available at a discount on DraftKings. He is more appropriately priced on FanDuel. Robert has a .330 xwOBA and .195 xISO in 307 career plate appearances against right-handed pitching. He will be facing Bryse Wilson, who has allowed a .338 xwOBA and .197 xISO to right-handed hitters so far in his career.
Top Stacks
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Chicago White Sox
Top Under-owned Stacks: Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies
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