The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in depth look into the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.
MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Aug. 25
Top Pitchers
Brandon Woodruff ($10,200 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, with a 29.3% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 3.10 xFIP. He has struggled a bit recently, scoring 12 or fewer fantasy points in three of his last four starts, but it is likely just a blip on the radar. He has a mediocre matchup against the Reds, who have an active roster with a 111 wRC+ and 22.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Zack Wheeler ($10,000 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) has a dangerous matchup against the Rays, but it is also a high upside matchup as there are plenty of strikeouts in Tampa Bay’s lineup and they lose their designated hitter playing in Philadelphia. Wheeler has struck out 29.1% of hitters this season while limiting them to 0.64 home runs per nine innings and a 2.82 xFIP. The Rays’ active roster has the second highest wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and the seventh highest strikeout rate.
Walker Buehler ($9,700 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) has struck out 26.9% of hitters this season and has a 3.57 xFIP. He has a tough matchup against the Padres, who rank 29th in strikeout rate and have a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, but the other spend-up options have difficult matchups as well. Buehler is an elite pitcher and the Padres have just a 3.7 implied run total. Buehler is currently projected for 12% ownership on DraftKings, compared to 40% for Wheeler and 36% for Woodruff, which makes him look like an excellent option in tournaments.
Robbie Ray ($8,900 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) leads the slate with a 30.7% strikeout rate this season. He has only walked 6.4% of hitters and has a 3.37 xFIP. The only issue for Ray has been home runs as he has allowed 1.49 home runs per nine innings, but it is likely that he gives up les home runs moving forward since he no longer has to pitch in the extremely hitter friendly parks in Dunedin and Buffalo. Ray has a dangerous matchup against the White Sox, but he has been priced down on DraftKings compared to the other top tier pitchers, so he projects as the top option for me.
Shohei Ohtani ($8,700 DraftKings/$11,600 FanDuel) is also considerably less expensive on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel. Ohtani has a higher strikeout rate than every pitcher on tonight’s slate except for Ray and he has limited opponents to 0.72 home runs per nine innings and a 3.60 xFIP. Baltimore has a 98 wRC+ and 24.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, giving Ohtani a more favorable matchup than that of any of the pitchers listed above him.
Josiah Gray ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) has had mixed results so far in the majors, with a 4.76 xFIP and 2.77 home runs per nine innings allowed. He has also struck out 25.9% of hitters, however, and is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. He gets an excellent matchup against the Miami Marlins, who have struck out 24.8% of the time with an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.
Edward Cabrera ($5,000 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) will be making his major league debut tonight for the Marlins. According to FanGraphs, Cabrera is Miami’s third best prospect and the number 43 prospect in all of baseball. Cabrera made five starts at Double-A this season and struck out 34% of hitters while averaging 5.2 innings per start. In six starts at Triple-A, he averaged 4.85 innings per start and struck out 37.2% of hitters. He pitched four, six and six innings in his last three starts so I expect that we can get five to six innings from him tonight if he is pitching well. Washington’s active roster has an 85 wRC+ and 23.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Top Hitters
Daulton Varsho ($3,600 DraftKings/$3,000 FanDuel) is hitting seventh tonight against Bryse Wilson and the Pirates. While the lineup position isn’t ideal, Varsho offers power upside and salary savings at a relatively weak catcher position. In a limited time in the major leagues so far, Wilson has allowed a .393 xwOBA and .265 xISO to left-handed hitters while Varsho has posted a .334 xwOBA and .188 xISO against right-handed pitching.
Jared Walsh ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,000 FanDuel) is relatively inexpensive in an excellent matchup against Christopher Ellis and the Baltimore Orioles. Ellis appears to be another in the long line of awful arms that the Orioles call a starting rotation. Steamer projects him for a 5.12 FIP and 7.92 strikeouts per nine innings. At Triple-A this season, he allowed 2.21 home runs per nine innings while striking out 22.7% of hitters. Walsh has a .344 xwOBA and .183 xISO against right-handed pitching this season and gets a positive park shift hitting in Camden Yards.
Jorge Polanco ($3,600 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) stands out as a top value at second base tonight against Nick Pivetta. Pivetta has been decent this season, with a .323 xwOBA and .164 xISO allowed to left-handed hitters, but Polanco is underpriced at a weak position for a hitter, with a .354 xwOBA and .211 xISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Jose Ramirez ($5,700 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) is one of the top hitting options on the slate regardless of position. He will face left-hander Jake Latz, who according to FanGraphs is the 55th ranked prospect in the Rangers’ system. I had no idea that many players were even ranked within an individual organization. Latz spent most of this season at Double-A, where he had a 4.02 xFIP and 30.9% strikeout rate. He only pitched nine innings at Triple-A, however, so this is a big leap for him. Ramirez has posted a .375 xwOBA and .263 xISO against left-handed pitching this season.
Amed Rosario ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) gets the same (probably) favorable matchup against Latz. Rosario only has a .329 xwOBA and .135 xISO against left-handed pitching over the last three seasons, but he is hitting second on a team with a 5.3 implied run total, so he still projects as one of the top options at his position.
Kyle Schwarber ($4,700 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) is hitting second for the Red Sox tonight against Bailey Ober. Ober is a promising prospect for the Twins, but he is likely to be overmatched tonight against Boston’s potent lineup. Ober has had issues containing left-handed hitters this season as he has allowed a .357 xwOBA and .200 xISO. Schwarber has been excellent this season, mostly for the Nationals, with a .425 xwOBA and .365 xISO in 225 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers.
Max Kepler ($3,900 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) is underpriced for his matchup against Pivetta. While Pivetta is having a decent season, he does still give up power, and Kepler has a .213 xISO and .358 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Franmil Reyes ($5,400 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) is projected to be lower owned than some of his Cleveland counterparts, but he offers a ton of upside tonight against Latz. Reyes has a .352 xwOBA and .205 xISO in 308 plate appearances against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season and he offers us a chance to pay up to be contrarian in tournaments.
Top Stacks
Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.
- Los Angeles Angels
- Boston Red Sox
- Minnesota Twins
Top Under-owned Stacks: San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies
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