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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 10/3/21

Terry McBride

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Awesemo Betting Guide + Best Bets for the American League Wild Card Game between the Yankees + Red Sox on Tuesday, October 5, 2021.

The MLB DFS season goes out with a whimper on Sunday, while the actual MLB has a fascinating day of baseball on tap. All 15 games on the slate are starting in the 3 p.m. ET hour, as the league wants everyone in competitive situations to play at the same time. There are numerous high-end teams that are still fighting for their playoff lives, and the slate could go in any number of directions. Among the eliminated teams, it will be important to keep an eye on final lineup configurations, the following power index and home run picks were selected from the projected lineups, which are highly likely to change on the last day of the season.

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For this slate, we will refer to the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers tools in lieu of analysis at publication. Given time and confirmed lineups following the earlier lock in another sport, I will try to circle back to add a brief analysis of stacks and pitchers.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give each team one of the top choices. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

Check out all Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content, and free MLB DFS picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun — 4.06

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 13.07

Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 11.49

Boston Red Sox: Kyle Schwarber — 17.96

Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ — 13.51

Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez — 14.17

Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez — 9.61

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 8.88

Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 18.01

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera — 7.04

Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 6.65

Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 11.80

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 9.46

Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Turner — 6.47

Miami Marlins: Lewin Diaz — 12.48

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 7.92

Minnesota Twins: Miguel Sano — 10.50

New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 9.28

New York Yankees: Joey Gallo — 18.69

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 15.17

Philadelphia Phillies: Brad Miller — 5.19

Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 9.28

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 5.82

San Francisco Giants: Kris Bryant — 5.73

Seattle Mariners: Jarred Kelenic — 14.30

St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 12.16

Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 9.47

Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 10.36

Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 18.02

Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 12.04

Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Picks: Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

The top arms on the board include Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton, Dylan Cease and Chris Sale, pending any information about innings limitations.

Stacks

Of the teams at the top of the power index, the Rockies are largely skippable; focus on the teams with something to play for who also have high-end power opportunities, such as the Yankees, Mariners and Blue Jays. Getting to the positively leveraged highly ranked stacks in the Top Stacks tool is the name of the game the rest of the way.

HR Call: Aaron Judge — New York Yankees

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.


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Looking for more MLB DFS picks content? We have loads of daily fantasy baseball articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo MLB DFS home page.

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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