MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 8/15/21

Sunday afternoon’s 10-game slate is ripe for power and offense once again, with only a few top-end arms going. Several extremely flammable starters will be taking the mound for their teams, thrusting bats and stacks to the forefront. There are still several workable starters on the board, though some of the premium names are in difficult matchups against high-octane offenses of their own. Given the lack of abundant starting pitching options that are truly safe, a direct contrast to last night’s slate, this seems to be a good spot to spread pitching ownership to several positively leveraged starters.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Check out today's FREE DFS tool of the day

Home Run Ratings

Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 10.82

Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 8.54

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 11.90

Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 16.82

Chicago White Sox: Andrew Vaughn — 8.83

Cincinnati Reds: Mike Moustakas — 10.82

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 17.02

Detroit Tigers: Renato Nunez — 11.95

Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 13.43

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 10.09

Milwaukee Brewers: Eduardo Escobar — 20.80

Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 9.46

New York Yankees: Joey Gallo — 14.01

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 15.24

Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen — 6.10

Pittsburgh Pirates: Colin Moran — 6.87

St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 13.33

Tampa Bay Rays: Nelson Cruz — 19.78

Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 8.24

Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 10.55


Latest MLB DFS Content


Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

Today’s pitching slate is thin on quality, though a few top names will be on the mound in challenging spots. The board is led by Aaron Nola, who will be challenged by the excellent Reds offense, while Lucas Giolito will be similarly challenged by the powerful Yankees. Sean Manaea may not be widely considered as being on the same tier as the two name-brand options, but he has been every bit as good and is in a plus matchup against the Rangers. Eduardo Rodriguez faces a frisky Orioles team and stands a strong chance of putting up a relevant score, as do Sonny Gray and Luis Patino in starts against the Phillies and Twins, respectively. On the matchup-based front, both Elieser Hernandez and Drew Smyly are interesting in games against “Quad-A” lineups.

Nola has thrown 130.1 innings in 23 starts this season and has a 3.39 xFIP with a 1.14 WHIP. He has walked just 5.2% of hitters and has posted a sparkling 29.4% strikeout rate with a 13% swinging strike rate and a 30.8% CSW. Nola has yielded a 7.5% barrel rate with a 12.5-degree average launch angle and 36.6% hard-hit rate, though his .388 expected slugging percentage against stands in the 50th percentile. Nola is a high-end option, but he is not entirely safe in a matchup against a Reds team that is sixth in baseball with a 4.27% home run rate against righties. The team has a .190 collective ISO and a 23.1% strikeout rate that are both above average against righties, and they create runs 9% better than average in the split. Nola is justifiably popular on DraftKings for $10,000 and even more so for $9,500 on the FanDuel slate.

Manaea is one of the more underappreciated arms in the game. He has completed 128.2 innings in 23 starts this season, pitching to a 3.45 xFIP with a 26.7% strikeout rate. He has walked 6% of hitters and induces a 12.4% swinging strike rate with a 29.2% CSW. Manaea yields a bit of premium contact, his 7.3% barrel rate is in the 56th percentile, while the 39.7% hard-hit rate is a 44th-percentile mark, leading to a 53rd-percentile .383 expected slugging percentage. The opposing Rangers’ 2.16% home run rate is the worst such mark in the league against lefties, and second-worst overall against either hand (better than only Arizona’s 2.09% against righties). The Rangers have an anemic .115 ISO and create runs 26% worse than average against southpaws this season, though they have been good at limiting strikeouts to just 21.6% in the split, the sixth-best rate in the game. Manaea has a strong chance at putting up the day’s best pitching score on both sites and he adds a fair amount of likely safety to a lineup.

Need Preseason Fantasy Football Projections? We have you covered! Our team of Fantasy Football experts have preseason projections for all your DFS needs. Get access to our 2021 preseason projections with any purchase of our NFL Weekly Pass for only $14.95 or NFL Monthly Membership for just $49.95.

On the other side of Nola’s game, Gray will take the hill for Cincinnati and face a somewhat overrated Phillies team that has been somewhat targetable. Philadelphia is in the middle of the league with a .161 collective ISO and a 3.49% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season. They have a 23.2% strikeout rate that is just a touch ahead of the curve, while they create runs 11% worse than average against righties. Gray has upside, though he is always difficult to trust for depth and overall quality. He has completed 86 innings in his 17 starts this season and he has an excellent 29.6% strikeout rate with a 3.27 xFIP. Gray has issues with walks, yielding a free pass to 9.1% of hitters, but his 11.1% swinging strike rate and 30.7% CSW help him get out of jams. He has been very good at avoiding trouble as well, coming into today with a 4.9% barrel rate and a 31.9% hard-hit rate on the season. Gray costs $8,800 on the blue site and $9,500 on DraftKings, and he will be below 10% ownership on both.

Smyly is also difficult to trust and somewhat lacking in discernible upside given a 21% strikeout rate over 102 innings in his 20 starts this season. He walks too many at 8.4% and does not throw enough strikes with a 27.5% CSW, though his swinging-strike rate of 11.7% is solid. Smyly has a 39.5% hard-hit rate and a 9.7% barrel rate, but he faces a very lousy rebuilding Nationals lineup that is short on fearsome hitting. The Nationals active roster is in the bottom third of baseball with a 24% strikeout rate against lefties and they create runs 4% behind the average. Washington does have a 4.11% home run rate that could take advantage of mistakes given the contact numbers, but their .173 collective ISO in the split is only around average. With essentially no ownership and a very low price tag from site to site, Smyly is somewhat deserving of conservative consideration on this slate.

Tampa Bay Rays

The first place Rays are one of the top-ranked teams on the Top Stacks Tool and in the power index, giving them major upside on this slate. Tampa will be popular, however, in a matchup against Charlie Barnes, who has thrown 13.1 innings this season. Barnes struck out just 10% of hitters in that sample while walking 8.3% and yielding a 40.8% hard-hit rate with 92.8 mph average exit velocity. He had a 19.5% strikeout rate over 63.2 innings in 13 starts in Triple-A this season as well, so this is a sustained lack of quality that makes him targetable with bats. The Rays, however, are not nearly the same team that they are against righties, coming in with just a 3.31% home run rate and a .155 ISO in the split. Tampa Bay creates runs exactly at league average by WRC+ in the split and they have an aggressively bad 25.4% strikeout rate, putting them in the bottom third. Tampa Bay has significant upside in this spot, but there are reasons for concern, particularly when they will be as popular as they appear on FanDuel. Tampa is easier to roster at lower ownership marks on the DraftKings slate. Hitters of note include: Randy Arozarena, Nelson Cruz, Wander Franco, Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe, with Yandy Diaz, Manuel Margot and Mike Zunino filling in with power and projection upside around the edges. Monitoring ownership and being prepared to pivot if the team trends further into negative leverage territory would be a good idea with the Rays today.

Subscribe to Our Awesemo Odds on YouTube Channel We here at Awesemo are committed to bringing you the very best sports betting advice in the business. To help get the best bang for your buck, we are pleased to introduce the NEW Awesemo Odds YouTube channel! All of your favorite Awesemo personalities will appear regular on Awesemo Odds, including Dave "Loughy" Loughran, Josh Engleman, Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer, Ben Rasa and more. This channel will be a FREE one-stop shop for all of Awesemo's betting strategy, advice and picks videos for all of your favorite sports to wager on, from NBA, NFL, MLB, PGA and much more. Join us now!

Milwaukee Brewers

After spending much of the season dismissing the Brewers offense in this space, they appear to be a solid go-to option on this slate. Milwaukee leads the way in the power index, with the entire lineup drawing strong marks for home runs and power upside. Milwaukee will be facing Dillon Peters, who has made 24 MLB starts in his career, starting in 2017 with Miami. He has allowed 27 home runs over 132.2 innings in the sample, a 1.83 HR/9 mark. Peters has a career expected slugging percentage against of .476. The Pirates also have one of baseball’s worst bullpens, lending upside to the Brewers stack after they chase Peters. The truly distinguishing factor for Milwaukee today is that they are drawing strong positive leverage marks on both sites. They have a 4.39% home run rate that ranks fourth in baseball against lefties, and they have a .178 collective ISO in the split. The Brewers do strike out at a 24.5% rate against lefties, and they are 2% behind the average creating runs against southpaws, but not all lefty pitchers are the same. This is a great spot for upside.

Kolten Wong leads off the projected lineup, bringing a solid reverse split to the plate. Wong is slashing .337/.375/.517 with a .180 ISO against fellow lefties this season. He is at .283/.345/.454 with nine home runs and eight stolen bases in 325 plate appearances overall this season, and he creates runs 13% ahead of the average. Wong is a solid option leading off a Brewers stack for $3,300 on FanDuel and $4,400 on DraftKings and under 10% ownership across the industry.

Willy Adames is slashing .264/.338/.494 with 21 home runs and four stolen bases on the season. He has a .230 ISO and creates runs 23% better than average while barreling the ball 11.9% of the time. Adames has a 44.6% hard-hit rate but strikes out 28.2% of the time to get there, making him a bit of an all-or-nothing option. He also walks 10% of the time, which bolsters the quality on-base and run creation skills. Adames will be popular at $3,300 on FanDuel, but not crushingly so. On DraftKings he costs $5,400 and is drawing less than 5% popularity.

Get a risk free bet + 2 months FREE of Awesemo+ platinum all-access!

Eduardo Escobar could occupy the third spot in the lineup, depending on Christian Yelich. Yelich is out of the projected lineup in one source and batting third in another projected version of what Milwaukee will roll out. He is slashing a disappointing .232/.373/.350 on the season, with six home runs and a .118 ISO over 303 plate appearances. Yelich has been virtually unable to hit lefties this season, coming in with a .148/.284/.295 triple-slash and a WRC+ 38% below average. Yelich can be rostered on reputation and history, but his struggles are a major concern. If Escobar is the play in this spot, he is highly playable. He is slashing .256/.311/.489 with a .233 ISO and 24 home runs this season. Escobar has created runs 10% better than average and will be owned under 10% on FanDuel and below 3% on DraftKings.

Avisail Garcia comes in with a team-leading 47.6% hard-hit rate and a 12.3% barrel rate. He is slashing .269/.334/.486 with a .217 ISO and has hit 21 home runs with six stolen bases in his 398 plate appearances. Garcia has historically been very good against lefties, that trend continues this season with a .329/.440/.592 slash and a .263 ISO. Garcia creates runs 69% better than average in the split.

Tyrone Taylor and Lorenzo Cain are likely to hit back-to-back, though either could jump up in the order if Yelich sits. Taylor is slashing .249/.328/.459 with a .211 ISO and 10 home runs in 235 plate appearances, adding five stolen bases to the MLB DFS point scoring tally. Taylor makes hard contact 40% of the time and strikes out at a 21.3% rate. Cain, meanwhile, is slashing .257/.329/.375 over just 170 plate appearances. He has hit four home runs and has a .118 ISO and 93 WRC+. For his career, Cain has been excellent against lefties. He is slashing .306/.368/.468 with a .163 ISO while creating runs 25% better than average since breaking into the league in 2010. He is an inexpensive playable option.

Check Out Our New MLB DFS & Betting Tools The Awesemo MLB DFS and betting experts have worked hard to bring you brand new tools that are assured to help you improve your process — whether it's for DraftKings and FanDuel or in the sports betting markets. The MLB Player Props Tool will give you expert picks for what props are most likely to win in the strikeouts and home run prop markets, while the MLB Power Rankings will give you a more advance at team props and run lines. Be sure to get all the expert advice you can get with our MLB DFS Gameplan Archive of videos.

Luis Urias has surprisingly hit 16 home runs and has a .202 ISO over 412 plate appearances this season. He has a 40.6% hard-hit rate and a 9.8% barrel rate and manages to get on base at a healthy clip, enabled somewhat by a 10.7% walk rate that leads the team. Urias is not a common go-to option, but at $2,700 with second base and shortstop eligibility on FanDuel and $4,100 at second and third base on DraftKings he has both upside and utility.

Catcher Manny Pina will be under 2% popularity on the DraftKings slate. He costs just $3,500 on the slate and fits into Brewers stacks well as a back-end play. He is less necessary on FanDuel, but he has reasonable home run upside and power. Piña has hit nine home runs and has a .224 ISO in his 153 plate appearances this season, though he is slashing just .172/.268/.396 overall.

HR Call: Avisail Garcia — Milwaukee Brewers

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!

[MLBPAGE]

Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

Premium Data

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.