MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 8/16/21

Monday’s MLB DFS slate features perhaps the worst pitcher selections of the season. A day that sees 20 teams in action and the return of Yankees ace Gerrit Cole seems like it would have a robust player pool on the mound. In reality, the slate has just Cole as a truly reliable premium pitcher, depending one’s thoughts about Kevin Gausman and Wade Miley. With most of the pitcher’s mounds in baseball lit on fire from all the gas cans, this should be a major night for offense and run scoring. The schedule makers pile on for MLB DFS upside and decision points as well, dropping a Coors Field game featuring one of the best offenses in baseball into the middle of the mess. This seems like a DFS MLB slate on which it would be wise to make a few specific decisions to concentrate a pitching pool while spreading out to a great number of highly differentiated stacks.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

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Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Atlanta Braves: Ozzie Albies — 11.23

Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 1.49

Chicago Cubs: Frank Schwindel — 4.38

Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 9.52

Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino — 10.22

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 22.22

Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 11.29

Houston Astros: Yuli Gurriel — 5.87

Kansas City Royals: Ryan O’Hearn — 8.48

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 12.41

Los Angeles Dodgers: Trea Turner — 2.60

Miami Marlins: Jazz Chisholm — 11.37

Minnesota Twins: Brent Rooker — 6.62

New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 6.53

New York Yankees: Joey Gallo — 13.19

Oakland Athletics: Matt Chapman — 6.80

Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 1.62

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 8.54

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Crawford — 5.34

Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 8.35


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks Today Fantasy Baseball DraftKings FanDuel Yahoo ESPN CBS home run predictions las vegas betting odds best MLB bets today braves Marlins yankees rockies angels Shohei Ohtani Aaron Judge White Sox A's

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

After Cole, there is no true ace on the pitching slate. Gausman and Miley follow him, though Gausman has not been as sharp as he was earlier in the year. Miley gains for pitching in a soft spot against the Cubs, but he is not anyone’s idea of a major upside play. Atlanta’s Touki Toussaint is in a good matchup against the Marlins, while Frankie Montas will be more challenged by a difficult White Sox lineup. Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill are at best uncomfortable to roster, but that puts them ahead of many other options on this slate. Cal Quantrill has been a creaky old wooden roller coaster for MLB DFS scoring this season, but he is capable of reaching strikeout upside against a swing-and-miss happy Twins team. Overall, the pitching slate is ugly. There are numerous low-cost SP2 options for DraftKings players, FanDuel gamers would do best to stick with the top of the board and look to get different with bats.

Cole will be making his first start since the end of July, after being placed on the COVID-19 list. He has been mostly terrific this season and seemed to have put any concerns about the changes in MLB rules behind him as June turned into July. Overall, Cole has completed 130.1 innings in 21 starts, pitching to a 2.87 xFIP and a 0.99 WHIP with a 34.4% strikeout rate. He is fantastic at inducing swinging strikes, coming in with a 14.6% swinging strike rate and a 32.6% CSW. Cole allows a 9.1% barrel rate and a 39.7% hard-hit rate for the season, premium contact that can give up the odd long ball, but there are typically few runners on base, and the damage is limited. Cole faces an Angels team that lands in the middle of the league with a 3.51% home run rate and a .169 ISO against right-handed pitching. Los Angeles strikes out at a below-average 23.8% clip but creates runs 4% better than average by collective WRC+ in the split. Cole should be the slate’s safest option and the best shot at a large pitching score. At $11,400, he is going under-owned on the blue site.

Gausman has yielded more walks and struck out fewer hitters since the end of June, but he is likely the second-best selection available on today’s slate in a game against the Mets. New York has a collective .149 ISO against righties this season, putting up a 3.40% home run rate and creating runs 12% behind the average. The Mets also strike out 24.7% of the time against righties, a bottom-third mark in baseball. Gausman has upside if he is going right. For the season, he has thrown 137.1 innings in 23 starts, providing reliable depth and a shot at win and quality start bonuses. He has a 3.41 xFIP and a 29.8% strikeout rate on the season, with his walks sitting at 7.9% and a 6.5% barrel rate. Gausman induces a 14.8% swinging strike rate and has a 30.9% CSW. He throws fewer called strikes than Cole on the average, but when he is on he will limit the free passes and find a few bonus strikeouts. Gausman is popular at $10,300 on FanDuel and $10,100 on DraftKings.

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Miley projects well largely because the Cubs are an atrociously bad baseball team right now. The active Chicago roster is third worst in baseball with a 25.4% strikeout rate against lefties, they have a 3.69% home run rate that is below average in the split, as is their collective .164 ISO. The Cubs create runs 8% worse than average against lefties this season, and this is the better side of splits for this offense. Miley has just an 18.5% rate over his 126 innings in 21 starts this season. He comes into tonight with a 4.10 xFIP and a 1.24 WHIP, yielding just 34.2% hard hits and an 85.7 mph average exit velocity on 6% barreled balls. He stands a strong chance of putting up a quality score, even if the extreme end of upside is capped due to the lack of strikeout potential – and even Miley may find a few additional strikeouts against this club. For $8,800 on FanDuel and $8,200 on DraftKings, Miley is appropriately priced, unfortunately he is trending deeply into negative leverage territory.

The most negatively leveraged pitcher on both sites tonight is Toussaint. His talent has been clear for a long time, but he has yet to fully put things together where he is reliable from start to start. Toussaint has a 4.19 xFIP and a 1.17 WHIP over 27.1 Major League innings this season. He has struck out 24.1% of hitters and walked just a few too many at 7.8%. He induces an 11.2% swinging strike rate but needs to find the plate more consistently as he has just a 28.5% CSW. The contact measurements become concerning, Toussaint has allowed an 8% barrel rate and a 50.7% hard-hit rate this season, with 92.4 mph average exit velocity and an 11.8-degree launch angle. Even a team like the Marlins can find some home run and run creation potential in those numbers, if they get bat on ball. Miami is not a good offense, they are eminently targetable with pitching on most slates given a .133 team ISO and a 2.78% home run rate against righties, as well as a run creation mark 16% behind the average and a 24.7% strikeout rate in the split. Toussaint could absolutely pitch a gem and post a mandatory MLB DFS score against this team, but at 30% ownership on FanDuel and 43.7% on DraftKings he is simply too popular given other similarly priced choices and a lack of safety, even for the discount. Considering some low-owned Marlins stacks to attack a pitcher with this profile and popularity seems like the more sharply edged tournament play.

San Diego Padres

The Padres are not only playing at Coors Field tonight; they are not only in a matchup against gas can Antonio Senzatela, who has just a 16% strikeout rate and a 4.20 xFIP over 105 innings; and they are not only the team with the highest implied run total; they will not only also have super-duper star Fernando Tatis Jr. back in the lineup; but they are also tracking for positive leverage despite all these major indicators for quality. Tatis took over in right field on his return last night and responded with a monster performance, and now he moves to Coors, where he and Manny Machado are both high priced and popular across the industry. The balance of the Padres lineup will be under-owned for the upside and pricing. Getting to the two stars in combination with anyone else in the lineup works well, all of Adam Frazier, Jake Cronenworth, Tommy Pham, Eric Hosmer, Austin Nola and Trent Grisham will be easily playable in this situation.

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Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are projected for positive leverage across both sites today as well. Cincinnati is at home to face lefty Justin Steele who has just 18.1 Major League innings under his belt. The Reds are not as good against left-handed pitching and they may be without Jesse Winker, but there should be enough upside despite the team’s surprisingly low .151 ISO and 3.40% home run rate in the split.

Jonathan India is slashing .280/.395/.465 with a .185 ISO and 15 home runs in 449 plate appearances this season. He can produce MLB DFS points on his own or through correlation with the hitters behind him via his excellent on-base ability. He is a bargain at $3,800 and 2.5% ownership on FanDuel and $4,800 with similar popularity on DraftKings.

Kyle Farmer may occupy the second spot in the lineup, though this could easily go to Joey Votto or a number of other hitters. Farmer is slashing .262/.323/.410 with 11 home runs in 388 plate appearances. He has created runs 5% behind the average for the season and does not get on base enough. Farmer does have upside, but he would be a better fit from later in the lineup on most nights. For a low price and positional flexibility with no ownership in this spot in the batting order, however, he is a fine play for MLB DFS purposes.

Nick Castellanos has made 409 plate appearances between some minor injuries and is currently slashing .315/.374/.563 with a .248 ISO and 20 home runs. Castellanos creates runs 44% better than average, is second on the team with a 47.1% hard-hit rate and barrels the ball 10.1% of the time.

If Votto is not in the second spot, he is likely going to serve as the cleanup hitter. If this is not Votto, it will likely be catcher Tyler Stephenson. Votto has 26 home runs in just 374 plate appearances with a .294 ISO and is creating runs 46% better than average by WRC+. Votto is slashing .279/.372/.573 on the season, giving up some quality in the hit tool to translate to power. He leads the team with a 52.3% hard-hit rate this season and barrels the ball 18.3% of the time. Votto is an upside play who will be entirely unowned across the industry.

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Stephenson is an underrated option at the position. In 299 plate appearances he has hit nine home runs and is slashing .291/.375/.453 with a .163 ISO while creating runs 21% better than average. Those marks make Stephenson quietly one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. He is projected for less than 2% popularity across the industry and is playable on both sites given the low price and position in the Reds lineup.

Eugenio Suarez has been in a semi-platoon with Mike Moustakas since the latter returned to the lineup. With a lefty on the mound, Suarez will likely play and Moustakas sit. He is slashing .173/.258/.376, though he has still managed to flash power with 23 home runs and a .202 ISO. When he is right, all of those marks are better, including Suarez’s massive power upside.

Aristides Aquino slots in for just $3,700 on the DraftKings slate and $2,700 on FanDuel and he brings strong home run upside to the late part of the lineup. Aquino has a .262 ISO and has created runs 3% better than average. He is a difficult pairing in stacks with Suarez, however, given a .206/.315/.467 triple-slash. The two strike out at an average rate of 34.2% and can create a black hole in the lineup when not making contact.

Tyler Naquin or Shogo Akiyama will occupy a final spot in the lineup and the outfield for the Reds. Naquin has hit 14 home runs and has a .180 ISO with five stolen bases on the season and makes reliably good contact, coming in with a 40% hard-hit rate and 10% barreled ball mark. Akiyama is slashing just .221/.304/.271 with a .050 ISO and no home runs in 159 plate appearances, creating runs 42% worse than average. Naquin fits into stacks, Akiyama can be left on the table.

HR Call: Franmil Reyes — Cleveland

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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