The entire league is in play on the Tuesday MLB DFS slate, although FanDuel is excluding the second game of the Red Sox – Yankees double header, as usual. The 14 games that appear on both sites are absolutely loaded. There are strong pitching options and a few spots that look to hold explosive upside for bats. Getting away from the field seems relatively easy, with several of the top ranked MLB DFS stacks going under-owned and a few excellent pitching options that are not as popular as they should be. With a slate of this size, spreading out to a wide variety of combinations of full stacks is the ideal approach, allowing for a one-off player is perfectly acceptable and a common build.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Pavin Smith — 3.47
Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 6.78
Baltimore Orioles: Cedric Mullins — 6.28
Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ — 11.31
Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez — 8.49
Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez — 10.66
Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 21.07
Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 10.87
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera — 7.75
Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 5.55
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 4.64
Los Angeles Angels: Jo Adell — 6.45
Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager — 14.82
Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 8.62
Milwaukee Brewers: Rowdy Tellez — 8.15
Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 23.01
New York Mets: J.D. Davis — 3.88
Oakland Athletics: Matt Chapman — 15.24
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper — 13.41
Pittsburgh Pirates: Rodolfo Castro — 5.37
San Diego Padres: Tommy Pham — 3.65
San Francisco Giants: Kris Bryant — 5.02
Seattle Mariners: Ty France — 8.00
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 2.76
Tampa Bay Rays: Mike Zunino — 13.36
Texas Rangers: D.J. Peters — 6.78
Toronto Blue Jays: Marcus Semien — 10.94
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 12.07
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Tuesday’s pitching slate offers far more depth and quality of selection than the day before. There are several high-end pitchers in good spots, including NL Cy Young Award contender Corbin Burnes facing the Cardinals. Burnes stands atop the pitcher board on both DraftKings and FanDuel, though he will be drawing heavy ownership across the industry. Toronto’s Alek Manoah is in a seemingly easy situation against a drastically depleted Nationals club, while Huascar Ynoa is one of the slate’s most popular plays, leading the favored Braves in a start against the Marlins. The slate continues with quality that rapidly lands in positively leveraged territory after those three leaders, with Logan Webb, Chris Bassitt, Adam Wainwright, Framber Valdez and even Tyler Anderson looking like reasonable plays. The balance of the slate fills out with values and playable starters like Sandy Alcantara, Kyle Gibson, Vladimir Gutierrez, and Marcus Stroman.
Burnes has been spectacular over 20 starts this season. He has thrown 121 innings, pitching to a 2.19 xFIP and a 0.93 WHIP while inducing a 16.6% swinging strike rate with a 34.6% CSW. The heavy strikes yield a massive 36.1% strikeout rate, while Burnes limits walks to just 4.4%, keeping him entirely safe through virtually every start he makes. He has yielded just a 2.5% barrel rate and a 28.4% hard-hit rate for the season, and his average exit velocity against stands at merely 84.9 mph. This has a dramatic effect on opposing home run power, an impact that is visible in the power index above. Burnes stands an excellent chance of limiting the Cardinals, a team that already sits just 22nd in baseball with a 3.36% home run rate against righties. St. Louis has a collective .153 ISO and creates runs 9% behind the average by WRC+, though they are good at avoiding strikeouts against righties, coming in with a 22% rate that is sixth best in the game, though a pitcher like Burnes will have little difficulty generating additional strikeouts. Burnes costs $11,500 on the FanDuel slate, a prohibitive cost that limits roster construction, but seems worth working with, given just a 7.6% ownership share on the blue site. At just $10,200 on DraftKings, Burnes is likely to land between 40-50% of the DraftKings pitching shares before the slate hits lock.
Manoah inexplicably costs $8,600 on DraftKings. He would be underpriced at his $9,900 FanDuel salary, given the upside he has shown and the opponent he faces this evening. The Nationals active roster is 14th out of baseball’s 30 teams with a 23.4% strikeout rate against righties, they are far worse at everything else. Washington has a 2.58% home run rate and a collective .132 ISO in the split that both rank second worst in the game. Their WRC+ stands 16% below average, the seventh-lowest number in baseball. This is a bad offense and Manoah is a high upside pitcher. He has a 29.3% strikeout rate over his first 59 innings at the Major League level. He induces a 13.2% swinging strike rate and has a 28.4% CSW that could actually stand improving. He yields too many free passes at 8.7% but has a crisp 1.02 WHIP with his 3.91 xFIP and he limits hard hits to just 34.5%. Manoah is under-owned on the FanDuel slate, where he is coming in at below 5% popularity. On DraftKings, his deeply discounted price has him in a high percentage of lineups, but he remains a viable play with extreme utility on the slate.
Ynoa is a bit of a wild card on the slate. He is making his first start since May 16th. Ynoa made three rehab starts in the minors in August, stretching out to 83 pitches in his last appearance on the 11th, so he should be expected to turn in around 90 pitches this evening. At that mark, he has the potential for upside against a Marlins lineup that is not bereft of talent but needs more seasoning and development overall. Ynoa made eight starts earlier in the year, throwing 44.2 innings to a 3.18 xFIP with a 27.9% strikeout rate. He induced 13.3% swinging strikes and had a 31.6% CSW, though he was allowing an 11.1% barrel rate with a far too high 47.9% hard-hit rate and 91.1 mph average exit velocity. Ynoa is not entirely safe, despite the impressive strikeout ability against a team that is ranked 24th with a 24.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The Marlins also lack power, they have a .133 ISO and a 2.79% home run rate, while creating runs 17% worse than league average by collective WRC+ in the split. Miami is a bad team, but there are individuals in the lineup that are projecting somewhat well for power and have the ability to make hard contact and capitalize on any mistakes. With the major ownership shares going to the starter on both sites, it could pay to consider an undercut to the field on Ynoa. Rostering him at $7,300 alongside 45.4% of the field on DraftKings makes it difficult to gain leverage on the field, while he is not at a large enough cost offset at $8,400 on FanDuel to fully justify his 20% popularity. Getting to exposures around half of those marks and spreading out to lower owned positively leveraged plays with the balance is a good way to claw back leverage on the slate.
The Giants’ Logan Webb is at home for a start against the visiting Mets and looks to be underpriced and under-owned. Webb has been sharp through his 85 innings in 16 starts this season. He has a 26% strikeout rate with a 7.5% walk rate. He induces an 11.2% swinging strike rate with a solid 30.4% CSW and yields just a 6.7% barrel rate. With a 36.4% hard hit mark and a fantastic -0.4-degree average launch angle, Webb is a pitcher who makes it difficult for hitters to elevate the ball to home run trajectory. The Mets active roster ranks 23rd with a 24.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and they have a slim .149 collective ISO in the split. New York has a 3.4% home run rate that approaches league average, but they sit 11% behind the curve in run creation, which provides plenty of edge to Webb. On DraftKings he looks like a fantastic play. He is projected for just 11% popularity at only an $8,800 price tag. On the other side of town, Webb somehow costs just $7,600, which renders him extremely popular. On a slate of this size, his projected ownership is far outpacing his probability of landing as the top starter.
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The Coors Field game lands both the Padres and Rockies at the top of the stacks board once again, with the Padres drawing positive leverage marks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Colorado slips into negative territory, given their lower overall team pricing, though they are clearly the inferior lineup from day to day. However, with lefty Matt Strahm on the hill, there are heavily projected Rockies up and down the lineup today. Go-to players who are drawing less ownership than they should include Brendan Rodgers, Charlie Blackmon, C.J. Cron, and Ryan McMahon, while Connor Joe and Trevor Story are both projected for heavier popularity. The left-handed hitters are by and large fine to play against a left-handed starter. The Padres will have to contend with German Marquez, an excellent pitcher who is perhaps the best ever in pitching consistently well at this ballpark. Marquez has thrown 140.2 innings in 24 starts this season, pitching to a 3.47 xFIP and a 1.18 WHIP while striking out 25.5% of hitters. He allows just a 4.3% barrel rate, which is a major asset in the large home stadium. His walks are too high at 8.8% and he can get into trouble, but he has largely stayed clean between the strikeouts and ability to limit premium contact. Marquez is slightly suppressing Padres projections, at least as compares to the lofty heights they reached yesterday. Go-to bats for San Diego stacks include the extremely obvious and popular Fernando Tatis Jr., with the entire balance of the lineup landing as less popular highly playable options. These should include combinations of Adam Frazier, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Eric Hosmer and more.
Toronto Blue Jays
Backing up their excellent starting pitcher, the Blue Jays’ top-end offense looks like a prime stacking option on both sites tonight. They are currently tracking for positive leverage across the industry, despite landing as one of the top-ranked teams on the board. The Blue Jays line up against Washington’s Erick Fedde. He has a 20.8% strikeout rate over 91.1 innings in 19 starts this season. He has pitched to a respectable 4.16 xFIP but has an ugly 1.42 WHIP and induces just a 7.8% swinging strike rate and a 24.5% CSW. Fedde allows an 8.6% barrel rate with a 40.6% hard hit and 90.1 mph average exit velocity. There is significant upside if the low ownership projections hold approaching lock. The Blue Jays are a lineup that everyone should be familiar with at this point in the season, go-to options include George Springer, Marcus Semien, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk, depending on the form of the final lineup.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have rarely been a go-to in this space through the season, but the team looks to be in a strong spot against Rangers lefty Taylor Hearn. Hearn has acted largely in long relief through the season, though he has opened three contests for the Rangers, pitching through more than three innings in two of them. Hearn threw four innings out of the bullpen as a follower in his two most recent outings and should be stretched out to the point that he can be considered as a typical starter. He has a 24.2% strikeout rate and a 4.66 xFIP with a 12.3% walk rate and 1.35 WHIP on the season. Hearn has allowed an 8% barrel rate and 38.7% hard hit with a 16-degree average launch angle. This combination of factors has the Mariners profiling well for offense and they are the top ranked value play that has positive leverage on both sites.
J.P. Crawford is slashing .268/.331/.366 this season, though he has not provided much power, coming in with just six home runs and a .098 ISO. His reasonable on-base acumen and propensity for putting the ball in play keep Crawford around the league average in run creation. Crawford is a reasonable play for a cheap price at a premium position, though he is better as a fifth man in a stack on DraftKings than a fourth on FanDuel, as that would exclude better plays from later in the lineup.
Mitch Haniger has hit 26 home runs in his 497 plate appearances this season, compiling a .223 ISO and creating runs 19% better than average. He is slashing .259/.314/.482 on the season and has a 43,4% hard-hit rate that leads the team. Haniger barrels the ball at an 11.5% clip, the third-best mark in Seattle’s projected lineup. He is a $3,400 play on FanDuel and costs just $4,600 on DraftKings, and he will be owned merely in the single digits.
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Ty France is slashing .285/.359/.440 with a .155 ISO and 12 home runs on the season. He has created runs 25% ahead of the average, leading the team with his high-end hit and on-base skills. France is not a major source of power, but he is a prime engine in the Mariners offense, and he is capable of driving the ball. France has a 37.5% hard-hit rate and a 7.1% barrel rate, and he strikes out just 16.3% of the time.
Abraham Toro is slashing .260/.345/.451 with a .191 ISO and a WRC+ that stands 24% ahead of the league average. Toro was a quality replacement for Alex Bregman in Houston earlier in the season and is now in a full-time role with the Mariners. He has nine home runs and four stolen bases in his 197 plate appearances this season, giving him quality upside for MLB DFS purposes.
Luis Torrens costs just $3,100 and is third best on the team with a 41.5% hard-hit rate. Torrens has been the Mariners’ best at barreling the ball in his 251 plate appearances, coming in at 12.8% which he has translated into 13 home runs and a .215 ISO. He slashes just .215/.283/.430 however, and his run creation falls 4% behind the curve. He is a better play where the position is required but will not be off the board on the blue site.
Jarred Kelenic comes in as just a .153/.243/.284 hitter over his first 206 plate appearances. He has just a .131 ISO and creates runs 49% behind the average overall this season and has hit just six home runs. He seemingly needs more seasoning, but he can be worked into a small share of lineups based on the prospect pedigree and near-total lack of ownership.
Cal Raleigh comes in with a .164/.208/.269 triple-slash in his 72 plate appearances. He has hit one home run and done nothing noteworthy creating runs in the miniscule sample. Raleigh is an afterthought with another catcher-eligible player in the lineup.
Dylan Moore has stolen 18 bases and hit 10 home runs in 301 plate appearances this season, though he lands largely as a platoon-based multi-positional role player. Moore is slashing just .181/.276/.340 with a .158 ISO and creates runs 25% worse than average. He adds another weak link for turning over the lineup at the back end of this batting order. Those holes render the Mariners more of a difficult play than they should be, but Moore offers better than average upside for a late-lineup player.
HR Call: Cody Bellinger — Los Angeles Dodgers
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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