The 10-game Wednesday MLB DFS slate is a solidly balanced affair, with a number of high-end pitchers making starts and a handful of situations where bad pitching is setting up major upside for opposing offenses. The potential stacking combinations around high-upside MLB DFS lineups are also landing on some of the very best teams in baseball, which could lead to a night filled with high scores once again. Several excellent GPP pitching options are available at low ownership and varied pricing as well.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Get 25% Off Awesemo+ NFL Annual Using promo code BLITZ, you can get 25% off the Awesemo+ NFL package — our best value NFL subscription of the years! This includes full access to everything we have to offer for NFL DFS, including Preseason DFS projections and updated depth charts.Home Run Ratings
Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte — 3.92
Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 13.64
Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle — 11.77
Boston Red Sox: Kyle Schwarber — 14.05
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 5.72
Detroit Tigers: Renato Nunez — 4.73
Houston Astros: Jose Altuve — 6.62
Kansas City Royals: Andrew Benintendi — 5.60
Los Angeles Angels: Max Stassi — 10.94
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 14.06
Miami Marlins: Alex Jackson — 4.33
Milwaukee Brewers: Willy Adames — 6.63
New York Yankees: Rougned Odor — 10.55
Oakland Athletics: Sean Murphy — 5.67
Philadelphia Phillies: J.T. Realmuto — 5.47
Pittsburgh Pirates: Colin Moran — 4.90
Seattle Mariners: Abraham Toro — 14.44
St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt — 5.46
Tampa Bay Rays: Nelson Cruz — 6.33
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 11.87
Latest MLB DFS Content
- Today’s Top MLB DFS Pitcher Pivots: Garrett Crochet and More (April 24)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (April 24)
- MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Top Values! (April 24)
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1s Joe Ryan and Bronx Bats (April 24)
- MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
A top-heavy pitching slate sees excellent options taking the mound at a wide range of prices and popularity. The top pitcher on the board by talent is arguably Freddy Peralta, though the excellent Milwaukee righty is not the top ranked option in a matchup against St. Louis. That honor goes to Atlanta’s Charlie Morton, who will face Miami, while Shohei Ohtani ranks highly and costs less in a strong spot against Detroit. Lance Lynn will take on the powerful Oakland lineup in his home park and is tracking for positive leverage, Tarik Skubal is in play on the other side of Ohtani’s game, and Jack Flaherty will take the mound opposing Peralta in his second start back from the injured list and he looks like a solid option as well. With a wealth of high-end pitchers priced in affordable tiers, the mid-range of pitching is rendered somewhat less necessary, though reasonable tournament options would include Marco Gonzales, Zack Greinke, Nick Pivetta and Andrew Heaney.
Peralta has been fantastic through his 2021 campaign. He has a 34.5% strikeout rate and a 0.91 WHIP, pitching to a 3.65 xFIP. He induces a 14.4% swinging strike rate and has a solid 30.9% CSW, allows just a 5.2% barrel rate and limits hard hits to just 31.5%. Peralta is a fantastic option to rack up strikeouts and get through any lineup in the league cleanly several times in a night. He has a .264 expected slugging percentage against that stands in the 96th percentile in baseball, completely limiting opposing power and run creation potential. The Cardinals are sixth in the league with a 22% strikeout rate in the split. They are below average in the other primary categories, coming in with a .152 collective ISO and a 3.32% home run rate, creating runs 10% worse than average against right-handed pitching this season. Peralta comes in at a surprising $9,800 price on FanDuel, yet is somehow under 10% ownership, while he will be more popular at his $10,2000 price on DraftKings. Peralta is an excellent play on both sites in all formats.
Morton stands a strong chance to shine in a matchup against one of baseball’s weakest offenses. The Marlins active roster creates runs 16% worse than average and has an inflated 24.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Miami has a substandard 2.80% home run rate in the split and they have compiled just a .134 collective ISO, making them lousy for both run creation and power upside. Morton, meanwhile, has been mostly excellent this season. He has thrown 134 innings in 24 starts, striking out 28% of opposing hitters and pitching to a 3.42 xFIP. Morton walks a few too many at 8.3% but makes up for it by allowing just a 5% barrel rate and 33.5% hard-hit rate on the season. Morton induces whiffs 12.3% of the time and has a 30.9% CSW. He will be crushingly popular across the industry, however, which could justify an undercut to the field’s ownership. With several similarly priced options coming up at reasonably close probability of success, it makes sense to spread some pitching shares over a larger portion of the available options.
Flaherty pitched six innings in his return last week, posting a strong start against the Royals in which he allowed just two hits and struck out five while walking none. He looks to continue the strong return in a game against the Brewers. Flaherty has struck out 26.3% of hitters over 68 innings through his full season. He has a 3.96 xFIP and a 0.97 WHIP, walking 7.3% and inducing a 12% swinging strike rate. He allows a touch of premium contact, coming in with an 8% barrel rate and a 39.8% hard hit, but he is typically a highly effective option, and he is facing a team that is right behind the Marlins with a 24.2% strikeout rate against righties. Milwaukee is slightly above average for power in the split, coming in with a 3.77% home run rate and a .171 ISO, but they create runs 6% behind the curve. The swing and miss in the lineup and the lack of overall run creation and on-base acumen should bolster the chances of Flaherty posting a slate-relevant score. He seems fully stretched out and ready to take his regular turn in the rotation every fifth day, putting him firmly on the board in most matchups through the rest of the season. Flaherty is priced up to $10,100 on FanDuel, which is pushing his ownership to the low single digits. He is far less costly on DraftKings at $9,100.
Subscribe to Our Awesemo Odds on YouTube Channel We here at Awesemo are committed to bringing you the very best sports betting advice in the business. To help get the best bang for your buck, we are pleased to introduce the NEW Awesemo Odds YouTube channel! All of your favorite Awesemo personalities will appear regular on Awesemo Odds, including Dave "Loughy" Loughran, Josh Engleman, Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer, Ben Rasa and more. This channel will be a FREE one-stop shop for all of Awesemo's betting strategy, advice and picks videos for all of your favorite sports to wager on, from NBA, NFL, MLB, PGA and much more. Join us now!Seattle Mariners
The Mariners won their game but failed to come through for MLB DFS gamers after being the featured stack in this space yesterday. Today, they are relegated to an honorable mention, though they are in a clearly better spot for upside in a game against the worst pitcher in the league. Seattle is facing Mike Foltynewicz, a pitcher whose job security in the face of a terrible season seems to imply that he may have dirt on someone in the front office. He has thrown 124 innings in 23 starts, striking out just 16.3% of hitters and allowing a 9.7% barrel rate and 44.4% hard hit. He yields a 16.8-degree average launch angle with a 90.6 mph average exit velocity. Those marks yield ideal home run trajectory, which should not surprise. Foltynewicz leads the league with 33 home runs allowed – his teammate Jordan Lyles is second worst in baseball, yielding 31 home runs in seven more innings. This is a highly targetable pitcher who has been mentioned in this space in roughly 18 of his 23 starts this year. The Mariners go-to bats are the same as yesterday, starting from the top of the lineup interesting options include: J.P. Crawford, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager, Ty France and Abraham Toro. Rookie Jarred Kelenic is in play despite his struggles, as would be Jake Fraley and Jake Bauers, if they land in the late portion of the lineup, both hitters have power upside.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are the slate’s highest ranked team on both DraftKings and FanDuel on the Top Stacks Tool by probability of success. They are in a matchup against Humberto Castellanos, a righty making his second start of the season. Castellanos has thrown 15.2 Major League innings overall this season and has an 18.2% strikeout rate with a 10.6% walk rate that plays well for run creation on the other side. Castellanos has yielded a 6.5% barrel rate and is targetable for sequential hitting, though he limits hard hits to just 28.3% in the small sample. Over an additional 44.2 innings in Triple-A this season, Castellanos has a 5.42 xFIP and a 23.5% strikeout rate. He is seemingly not yet a Major League pitcher. Philadelphia’s offense has been somewhat overrated this season, getting by more on reputation than numbers. They have a .160 collective ISO against righties that sits in the middle of the league, they are average in the split in strikeouts, landing 11th with a 23.1% strikeout rate and they have just a 3.46% home run rate while creating runs 12% worse than average in the split this season. There is upside in the Philadelphia lineup in a game against this pitcher, but some of the go-to names are projected for intense levels of public popularity. The obvious names in the Phillies lineup include Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Didi Gregorius and Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen is not getting his due respect in ownership, though he projects into the teens on both sites. He has struggled with the hit tool this season, but he has still hit 21 home runs and has a .222 ISO while creating runs 12% ahead of the league average. With Alec Bohm, Ronald Torreyes and Odubel Herrera rounding out the projected lineup, there is unpredictable infrequent upside to be found in including the low-owned low-cost options in variations of Phillies stacks alongside the primary options.
Houston Astros
The Astros are projected to be somewhat popular, but they are trending behind their probability of success in a strong spot against rookie Brady Singer. He has made 20 starts and thrown 91.1 innings this season. He has a 22.1% strikeout rate that falls slightly below average, while his 9.4% walk rate is simply too high. He has yielded a 4.6% barrel rate that helps limit opportunities for run creation, and his 36% hard-hit rate and 6.9-degree average launch angle are good for cutting into opposing power. Singer needs to get the walks under control and boost his strikeout numbers, but he is not far from becoming a different pitcher if he makes that minor leap. That is unlikely to come tonight against this team. The Astros are baseball’s best at avoiding the strikeout against both hands, Houston’s excellent offense has just a 20.5% rate against righties this season. The Astros’ active roster has a 4.3% home run rate, a .188 ISO and a WRC+ 21% ahead of the average. Houston will likely be without slugger Yordan Alvarez again, though they still look like an excellent option. Obvious Astros include Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, and Alvarez if he plays. Column favorite Yuli Gurriel has been featured in this space numerous times this season for his total lack of ownership in seemingly great spots. Gurriel is slashing .312/.380/.472 with 12 home runs and he creates runs 38% better than average. He is a near-mandatory part of this stack, yet his single-digit ownership falls well short of his teammates. The bottom of the lineup can be weaponized as well, with reasonable potential options including Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers.
Boston Red Sox
The hated Red Sox are in town to battle their blood rival Bronx Bombers, taking on the Yankees in a hitter’s paradise. Both sides of this contest look ripe for MLB DFS point scoring potential, and these two teams have a history of slugfests. With the renewed Yankees gobbling up all of the ground between them and the Red Sox in the standings over the last few weeks, this series becomes highly important as well, which makes it a shame that the beloved Yankees are starting targetable Andrew Heaney in this one. Heaney is a both-sides option on this slate, as is Nick Pivetta. Heaney is a strong option for strikeouts, but he yields a concerning amount of power and has issues with allowing home runs. In this park that can quickly become a problem. Heaney will benefit from a Red Sox lineup that struggles for power against lefties ,however. Boston comes in with just a 3.36% home run rate and a .162 ISO in the split, though they still create runs 6% better than average and they strike out just 22.2% of the time against southpaws. There is upside in Red Sox bats tonight, Heaney gives up a 10.1% barrel rate with 40.5% hard hit and an 18.3-degree average launch angle that screams for placement in the first few rows of the right field seats. He does have a 28% strikeout rate and a 4.02 xFIP, but he walks too many at 7.9% which gives free upside to the Sox scoring potential.
Check Out Our New MLB DFS & Betting Tools The Awesemo MLB DFS and betting experts have worked hard to bring you brand new tools that are assured to help you improve your process — whether it's for DraftKings and FanDuel or in the sports betting markets. The MLB Player Props Tool will give you expert picks for what props are most likely to win in the strikeouts and home run prop markets, while the MLB Power Rankings will give you a more advance at team props and run lines. Be sure to get all the expert advice you can get with our MLB DFS Gameplan Archive of videos.Enrique Hernandez is slashing .253/.340/.455 for the season and has a surprising .202 ISO while creating runs 14% better than average. Hernandez has 15 home runs and a stolen base atop the Red Sox lineup, but he is largely here for his on-base acumen, which helps set up scoring for the sluggers coming behind him in the batting order. Hernandez is inexpensive and will be under-owned on both sites.
Hunter Renfroe has hit 21 home runs this season and has a .224 ISO. He makes 43.6% hard contact and has a 13.1% barrel rate. Renfroe is undervalued, though he will gain some popularity for hitting second as opposed to appearing at the end of the batting order. However, he is still easy to get to at just $4,100 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel.
Xander Bogaerts is slashing .307/.376/.513 with a .206 ISO and 18 home runs this season. He has added five stolen bases and creates runs 38% better than average. He has an outstanding 17.7% strikeout rate and walks 9.5% of the time. When he connects, Bogaerts makes hard contact 42.4% of the time with a 10% barrel rate. He is pricey on both sites, but not to prohibitive levels, and his relatively low popularity puts him in play for GPP stacks.
Rafael Devers is slashing .294/.373/466 with a .172 ISO against lefties this year, though he has a .276/.350/.623 triple-slash and a monstrous .347 ISO against righties. Devers is hilariously under-owned at below 5% projected public popularity on both sites.
J.D. Martinez is at $4,800 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel while pulling well under 10% popularity. He has 23 home runs this season, slashing .292/.357/.539 with a .248 ISO. He creates runs 37% better than average and has incredible upside against this starter. Martinez makes hard contact 48.5% of the time with a 12.6% barrel rate.
Kyle Schwarber has a gargantuan 51.9% hard-hit rate and he barrels the ball 19.3% of the time on contact. He is not noted for his hit tool or on-base skills, though he is slashing a healthy .257/.347/.569 with a .312 ISO this year. Schwarber has created runs 38% better than average and stands a strong chance of hitting one out of this park tonight. He is a prime option for just $4,200 on DraftKings and $3,500 on the blue site. Schwarber has a .147 career ISO against fellow southpaws and a gigantic .289 mark against righties.
Christian Vazquez has hit just five home runs and has a .088 ISO this year. He is still at 24% below average creating runs, though he is now slashing .256/.306/.344. Vazquez barrels the ball just 2.8% of the time and has a 31% hard-hit rate. Vazquez is playable as a catcher on DraftKings for just $2,700, but he has less value despite the minimal $2,300 price on DraftKings.
Alex Verdugo is slashing .282/.350/.425 with a .143 ISO and creates runs 9% better than average overall this season. Most of that quality comes against right-handed pitching. Against fellow southpaws, Verdugo is slashing just .208/.256/.253 this season. He has a .045 ISO in the split and creates runs 62% worse than average. With a lefty on the hill it is difficult to justify significant shares of Verdugo, but he can be rostered as a correlation component in stacks.
Bobby Dalbec’s quality comes from a .205 ISO and 14 home runs in 335 plate appearances, not from a .231/.281/.436 triple slash. He has made hard contact 42.4% of the time and has a 16.8% barrel rate this year.
HR Call: Kyle Seager — Seattle Mariners
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[MLBPAGE]
