The Friday MLB DFS slate sees all 30 teams in action and provides steady options from all ranges of the salary and talent spectrum. The slate features an interesting pitching board, with several off-brand options rising for the quality of their matchups, as well as a few top-level aces in a variety of situations. With every team in the league playing, there are plenty of excellent opportunities for rostering full stacks against bad to mediocre pitchers. Utilizing the Top Stacks Tool to find the best MLB DFS picks at positive leverage is critical in the decision-making process for a tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Carson Kelly — 5.90
Atlanta Braves: Jorge Soler — 8.32
Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle — 8.45
Boston Red Sox: Kyle Schwarber — 25.29
Chicago Cubs: Frank Schwindel — 7.15
Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez — 13.39
Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto — 5.11
Cleveland Indians: Amed Rosario — 4.12
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon — 10.21
Detroit Tigers: Eric Haase — 12.07
Houston Astros: Alex Bregman — 11.46
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 6.16
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 8.36
Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager — 9.20
Miami Marlins: Brian Anderson — 3.13
Milwaukee Brewers: Willy Adames — 10.08
Minnesota Twins: Miguel Sano — 11.19
New York Mets: Javier Baez — 9.98
New York Yankees: Luke Voit — 7.51
Oakland Athletics: Mark Canha — 7.95
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper — 15.88
Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Chavis — 10.88
San Diego Padres: Trent Grisham — 7.93
San Francisco Giants: Darin Ruf — 4.78
Seattle Mariners: Abraham Toro — 8.17
St. Louis Cardinals: Paul DeJong — 20.19
Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 9.67
Texas Rangers: D.J. Peters — 8.77
Toronto Blue Jays: Lourdes Gurriel — 6.58
Washington Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman — 8.62
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The pitching slate is loaded with quality and has a few starters who are not normally go-to options who appear to be in excellent situations. The board is topped by some of the more obvious names, including Gerrit Cole against the Athletics, Aaron Nola in an easy spot taking on the Diamondbacks, and Joe Musgrove facing the Angels. Beyond that tier of clear prime starters, things level out in a wide mid-range that includes both high- and low-priced starters. Logan Gilbert faces the Royals in a plus matchup but is drawing heavy ownership as a cheap SP2, and Wade Miley is in an excellent matchup against the Marlins. The Giants – Braves game features two good pitchers in difficult situations, with Max Fried and Kevin Gausman taking the mound for their respective clubs. Shane McClanahan is priced up but in a strong spot taking on the Orioles, and Eduardo Rodriguez brings his strong stuff to Cleveland. A wild card on the slate may be the Mets’ Rich Hill facing the Nationals.
Cole stands at the top of the pitching board on projection and general talent. He has a 34.3% strikeout rate over 142 innings and walks just 5.4% of hitters. He has a 2.85 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 14.5% swinging strike rate and 32.7% CSW for the year. Cole comes into tonight at a 9.3% rate that would be a concern for most pitchers, for Cole it is a minor blip that rarely hurts him outside of the occasional low-impact home run. He faces an Athletics active roster that ranks fourth in baseball with a 21.6% strikeout rate against righties this season. Oakland has a .165 ISO and 3.36% home run rate that are both just average in the split, though the team creates runs 6% better than average. Cole will be owned in single digits on FanDuel at a heavy $11,200 price, but he will be far more popular for $10,500 on DraftKings.
Nola lands a tick below Cole in terms of overall talent, but he benefits from a good matchup against the lowly Diamondbacks. Arizona has a 25.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season and comes in with a weak 2.12% home run rate and .132 ISO in the split. The Diamondbacks create runs 17% worse than average against right-handers, and Nola is excellent at suppressing opposing offenses. He has a 3.47 xFIP and a 1.12 WHIP with a 12.8% swinging strike rate. He has struck out 29.3% of hitters and has just a 5.6% walk rate while allowing a 7.4% barrel rate and yielding just 36.7% hard hits. Nola costs $10,000 on FanDuel and $10,200 on DraftKings.
Musgrove brings a solid 28.1% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate to his start against the Angels. He has a 3.46 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP this season, 13% swinging strike rate and 31.5% CSW. Opposing hitters barrel the ball in 6.1% of batted ball events against Musgrove, and he allows a 35.5% hard-hit rate. He has been largely strong through the season, despite a few bumps. He faces an Angels team that lands in the middle of the league in most categories. Los Angeles has a .167 ISO and a 3.42% home run rate in the split against right-handed pitching. The Angels strike out 23.9% of the time and create runs just 2% better than average in the split, lending credulity to the idea of this being at least a decent spot for a good MLB DFS score from Musgrove. He is under-owned at just 12% for $9,200 on FanDuel and 18% for $9,600 on DraftKings.
Hill has not been a comfortable starter to roster through much of this season. He has a 21.2% strikeout rate with an 8.5% walk rate on the season, covering 122 innings in 24 starts. Hill induces just a 9.1% swinging strike rate but has a roughly average 29.9% CSW. He allows a 9.4% barrel rate and a 36% hard-hit rate this season. In this spot, however, most pitchers have upside. The Nationals are a bad baseball team, though they have a .180 ISO and a 4.14% home run rate in the split, and they create runs 4% better than average while striking out 23.1% of the time. Overall, this is in no way a safe spot, but Hill’s $6,800 price on DraftKings and $7,200 on FanDuel have upside.
Houston Astros
The excellent Astros are the poster-team of a frequently discussed strategy of simply rostering good lineups when they are under-owned, almost regardless of matchups. Houston is the third ranked team on the Top Stacks Tool on both sites, and they are projected to come in with the largest overall leverage score. The Astros are expensive, but they should be far more owned than they are, particularly with plenty of inexpensive pitching quality available. To add to the appeal, Houston is facing a Rangers team that will be starting Glenn Otto making his MLB debut. Otto made 10 starts in New York’s Double-A system and posted a 2.46 xFIP with a 40.7% strikeout rate, clearly pitching at too low a level. Otto made two starts for New York in Triple-A and another four for Texas, in the six games he was well over a 4.50 xFIP and had a 24.5% strikeout rate, numbers that will likely decline again with the promotion to the Show. The Astros can get to the best pitchers in the league, in this matchup they have a chance to explode. Go-to hitters include Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel and Kyle Tucker, while Martin Maldonado and Jake Meyers can help round out a lineup.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are another team that lands with positive leverage on the Top Stacks Tool. Los Angeles draws lefty Kyle Freeland who has just a 20.4% strikeout rate and a 6.4% walk rate in 84.2 innings this season. Freeland is not a bad pitcher, but he is not particularly capable of shutting down a lineup like the Dodgers entirely either. Los Angeles creates runs 6% better than average against left-handed pitching and has a .188 ISO with a 4.42% home run rate, all of which rank in the upper third of the league. The Dodgers keep the ball in play as well, striking out just 22.4% of the time; against a low-strikeout starter there should be abundant opportunities for sequential hitting and run creation. Key Dodgers bats include: Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Justin Turner and catcher Will Smith. Cody Bellinger has occupied the eighth spot in the lineup in recent games. He is struggling significantly this season, slashing just .173/.251/.325 and making only 33.5% hard contact. He should not be entirely forgotten, however, as he could provide surprising upside on any given slate. Chris Taylor is an underappreciated cog in the Dodgers machine. He slots into the outfield and at third base on DraftKings, outfield and second base on FanDuel. Taylor has 18 home runs and a .198 ISO while creating runs 32% better than average.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals surge to the top of the power index today, with the entire team showing better than average home run marks in the model. St. Louis stands in the top third of the board on both sites. They will be owned at roughly appropriate levels, potentially slightly positively leveraged on DraftKings. St. Louis is on the road in Pittsburgh, facing lefty Dillon Peters, who has made two starts this season. Peters has struck out just 14.3% of hitters in the Majors, while walking 9.5% and posting a 5.01 xFIP. He induces just a 7.5% swinging strike rate, 25.9% CSW, 9.4% barrel rate and 37.5% hard hits in the small sample. The Cardinals active roster has a 3.77% home run rate and a .178 ISO against lefties, while striking out 23.2% of hitters and creating runs 1% ahead of the average. In this spot those numbers stand to take a major jump.
Tommy Edman leads off the projected lineup despite just a .311 on-base percentage and a WRC+ that sits 9% below average. Edman has 21 stolen bases in 534 plate appearances this season. He is slashing .261/.311/.382 with a .121 ISO and seven home runs. There is potential for DFS scoring on any slate, but Edman needs to reach base to score MLB DFS points on his own.
Paul Goldschmidt is slashing .282/.348/.469 with a .187 ISO and creates runs 22% better than average. He has 21 home runs this season while making an excellent amount of hard contact at 52.4%. Goldschmidt barrels the ball 12.4% of the time. For $4,000 on FanDuel, he is not nearly popular enough at 3.6%; at a massive $6,000 price on DraftKings.
Dylan Carlson is inexpensive at just $3,600 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel, a price that does not reflect his potential for power and speed. Carlson has 12 home runs in 491 plate appearances this season, posting a .156 ISO and stealing just two bases, but there is likely more to come as his career continues. Carlson hit 21 home runs and stole 18 bases in Double-A in 2019, showing the full range of his tools. On this slate Carlson is an inexpensive, low-owned correlation play in the middle of Cardinals stacks.
Nolan Arenado has 26 home runs, is slashing .255/.313/.495 and is creating runs 14% ahead of the average. These are solid numbers, but they fail to reach the significant heights of what Arenado did in his time with Colorado. He has made just 36.1% hard contact and has only a 7.2% barrel rate on the season, both marks are well lower than expectation for a hitter of this caliber. Arenado costs $3,900 on FanDuel but is much more difficult to roster at $5,800 on DraftKings.
Slugger Tyler O’Neill has 21 home runs and has a .236 ISO while creating runs 30% better than average. He is slashing .273/.342/.509 and is becoming the Cardinals best overall bat. O’Neill makes hard contact 54.4% of the time and has a stellar 17.5% barrel rate, though he strikes out a whopping 31.6% of the time. O’Neill costs $4,200 on DraftKings and just $3,200 on FanDuel.
Yadier Molina is a playable option on DraftKings and can provide a low-owned differentiation point as necessary on FanDuel. Molina is slashing .259/.303/.374 with a .115 ISO and creates runs 14% behind the average this season. He is not one of the top bats at his position, but he can provide quality at times. Molina is a much better play as a part of Cardinals stacks than as a one-off.
Paul DeJong is still sub-Mendoza, slashing .199/.292/.382, but he has a .183 ISO and has 16 home runs in 342 plate appearances. He has created runs 13% worse than average, but his power makes him an interesting positional option for $4,000 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel. DeJong is capable of rounding off a mid-lineup Cardinals stack.
Harrison Bader costs just $2,800 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel. Bader has nine home runs and six stolen bases in 266 plate appearances this year, providing underrated quality from the back of the Cardinals lineup. Bader has a .158 ISO and creates runs 8% worse than average, but he has upside. He is slashing .246/.312/.404 on the season, making him a better end of a stack than a wraparound.
HR Call: Paul Goldschmidt — St. Louis Cardinals
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