Monday MLB DFS action features a loaded nine-game slate that has both premium pitching and a few excellent stacking opportunities. With September baseball coming over the horizon, teams that have fallen out of contention will be giving more opportunity to inexperienced players, and several of today’s starters fall into that category. The teams that are still chasing the playoffs are all loaded, and several of those are in excellent spots for hitting on this slate. With somewhat affordable pitching available, there are opportunities to get to high-end MLB DFS stacks today and under-owned teams in unique combinations on this slate. On a slate of this size, angling toward full stacks of well-correlated hitters projected for positive leverage in the Top Stacks Tool is the priority.
Daily Fantasy Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Josh VanMeter — 5.22
Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 8.51
Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 11.30
Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts — 7.34
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon — 10.20
Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 5.68
Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton — 6.54
Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Turner — 9.88
Milwaukee Brewers: Omar Narvaez — 4.36
New York Yankees: Anthony Rizzo — 11.40
Philadelphia Phillies: Brad Miller — 21.01
San Diego Padres: Wil Myers — 9.95
San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt — 1.81
Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager — 7.47
Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe — 11.06
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 5.38
Toronto Blue Jays: Marcus Semien — 11.47
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 4.52
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Picks: Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Monday features an excellent crop of starting pitching from which to make our MLB DFS lineup picks. The slate is topped by Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler and Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes. They are facing opponents on opposite ends of the quality spectrum, which is what vaults Wheeler into the pole position in his matchup against Washington. With Burnes facing San Francisco’s dynamic offense, the disparity is clear. The board also includes Robbie Ray in an excellent spot against Baltimore and the equally talented German Marquez who will be on the road to face Texas. The Astros will be in Seattle to let their bats expose just how bad a pitcher Chris Flexen is, but their starter Luis Garcia also stands at an excellent price point on both DraftKings and FanDuel for this matchup and should not be ignored. There are several other playable starters on name recognition, though Julio Urias and Luis Patino are in very difficult matchups, while Corey Kluber and Chris Paddack are both making short starts in their returns from long injury absences.
Wheeler has thrown 176.2 innings in his 26 starts this season to lead all of baseball. He provides excellent depth with a shot at both a win and a quality start bonus every time he takes the mound. He has been far more than an effective innings-eater this season, however, Wheeler comes into tonight with a 29.1% strikeout rate and a sparkling 2.78 xFIP for the year. He has walked just 5.1% of hitters while inducing a 12.7% swinging-strike rate. Wheeler allows just a 5% barrel rate and 30% hard hits with an average exit velocity of just 84.9 mph, he is excellent at limiting quality contact, sequential hitting, and run creation. He also benefits greatly from a matchup against one of the worst lineups in the league. The opposing Nationals have just a .133 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and hit home runs in merely 2.77% of plate appearances in the split. They strike out at a league-average 23.4% clip against righties and create runs 15% worse than average. It would be unsurprising to see him work the full nine innings with limited damage. At a high-but-fair salary, Wheeler is in play across the industry, he will be popular on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but not to a prohibitive degree.
Burnes is having a fantastic season, chasing the National League Cy Young Award. He has been mostly excellent over 133 innings in 22 starts this season. He has a 34.4% strikeout rate and just a 5.0% walk percentage while inducing a 16.2% swinging strike rate with a 34.2% CSW that leads all of baseball. The second-highest CSW in MLB is Gerrit Cole at 32.5%, Burnes has been elite among the elite. He has yielded just a 2.6% barrel rate with a 30.4% hard-hit rate and only 85.5 mph average exit velocity for the season, it is extremely difficult to make quality contact against him. The opposing Giants have made their living with quality contact against right-handed pitching this season. San Francisco’s active roster is third in baseball with a .201 ISO and fourth with a 4.60% home run rate against righties this season. The Giants create runs 9% better than average, though they do have a below-par 24.6% strikeout rate in the split this season. It is easy enough to see Burnes cruising through this start relatively unscathed while racking up strikeouts; he is underpriced at $10,200 on DraftKings, where he is drawing nearly 30% popularity. On the blue site, Burnes climbs to a whopping $11,500 price tag, which is limiting his ownership to the low single-digits. Burnes is a spectacular tournament play on FanDuel, and he is at worst fairly owned by the field across the industry.
Ray is indisputably having a career season and is pushing for Cy Young Award contention in the American League. He has a 31.6% strikeout rate and a 3.24 xFIP with a 1.03 WHIP and a 30.2% CSW and has dramatically cut his walk rate, which has made all the difference. Ray has always been a quality strikeout pitcher, but he was never able to fully harness control and command, struggling to pitch efficiently enough to make it deep into ballgames and frequently getting himself into trouble. Ray’s career walk rate is still an unsightly 10.3%, which includes the steady 6.3% from this season. Eliminating that number puts the starter at a career walk rate of 10.9%. From 2017-2020, Ray had a walk rate of 12.3%, nearly double his current-year mark. In addition to the still significant concerns about walk regression, Ray also tends to yield quality contact when hitters get bat-on-ball. He comes into tonight allowing an 8.8% barrel rate with a 43.4% hard-hit percentage and 90.4 mph average exit velocity at an average launch angle of 15.8 degrees. None of this is to say that Ray is anything other than one of the most likely starters to post a big score tonight, simply to illustrate the potential for disaster that is somewhat more foreseeable than with the other top-end options on the table. The opposing Orioles are not lacking in home run upside. Baltimore is above average against lefties, with a .186 collective ISO and a 4.15% home run rate in the split. Baltimore has a 23.1% strikeout rate against southpaws that ranks around the middle of the league, but the active roster creates runs 10% better than average in the split, adding slightly to concerns about the starter. Ray will be highly owned on DraftKings because he costs just $9,700, an undercut to the field’s ownership seems appropriate on the site, while he is playable at or below the field’s 16% mark for $10,900 on the FanDuel slate.
Houston’s Luis Garcia has not only been the best player with that popular name on any team this season, but also one of baseball’s best young starters. He has a 28.9% strikeout rate and a 3.71 xFIP over 123.1 innings in 22 starts. He is inducing a fantastic 14.2% strikeout rate and has a 31.7% CSW on the season. Garcia walks a few more than one would like, coming in at a 7.4% rate, he yields a 7.0% barrel rate and 38.2% hard hits but has largely stayed out of major trouble through most of his starts this season. Garcia draws a Mariners team that has mostly struggled against right-handed pitching this season. The active Mariners roster is third worst in baseball with a 25.4% strikeout rate in the split. They are slightly above average with a 3.87% home run rate but fall below the curve with just a .161 ISO in the split. Seattle is also below average for run creation against righties, coming in 9% behind league average by WRC+. Garcia is cheap by comparison to the other highly ranked pitchers, and he will be low owned. On DraftKings, a $9,200 price tag has him falling at just 11.2% projected ownership, while he will be slightly less popular at 10.5% for a mere $8,500 on the FanDuel slate. Garcia is easily a top option given his individual upside, quality of opponent, price and popularity on this slate, this is where shares drawn from undercutting the public on other premium starters should be allocated on both sites (along with Burnes on FanDuel).
Toronto Blue Jays
The popular Blue Jays are one of baseball’s best offenses against right-handed pitching and they will be facing a 28-year-old non-prospect who has a low-20s career strikeout percentage through his long Minor League journey. Toronto’s active roster is sixth in baseball with a .191 ISO and fifth with a 4.42% home run rate against righties this season. Toronto has just a 20.8% strikeout rate in the split, ranking them second among baseball’s 30 teams, and they create runs 12% ahead of the league average, MLB’s fourth-best mark. They are drawing significant home run marks and DFS projections, and they rank second on the Top Stacks Tool. The projected ownership for Toronto, however, is somewhat inflated. They will be one of the more negatively leveraged on the FanDuel slate — though none comes close to rivaling the awful number at which the top-ranked Padres land — and they will be slightly low on DraftKings as well. The higher relative pricing on the DraftKings slate makes the Blue Jays a more appealing stack on that site. With George Springer back in action, Toronto can be rostered essentially from top to bottom. Toronto’s projected lineup includes go-to bats like Springer, Marcus Semien, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez, while Corey Dickerson, Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk and Kevin Smith can add cheap quality from later in the batting order, depending on the final configuration.
Houston Astros
The constantly under-owned Astros are in familiar territory. This has become a situation where the public will have to start rostering this team more if you want us to stop talking and writing about them. The Astros are simply too good to go under-appreciated on every slate. Houston’s active roster has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball against both righties and lefties this season, and back through the start of at least the 2018 season. Houston is also baseball’s best team for run creation against both hands, coming in with a collective WRC+ that sits 22% above average against lefties and 19% above average against right-handed pitching. They have a 4.06% home run rate against righties and a .182 ISO that are both in the upper third of the league in the split. Against Flexen, a pitcher who has just a 16.5% strikeout rate and a 4.48 xFIP over 140 innings this season, the Astros have explosive upside. This is one of baseball’s apex lineups, they are high salaried for a reason, they should be more popular. The prime Astros bats remain the same as featured in this space over the last week, including Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. Bregman is yet to see his price climb on the FanDuel slate, he sits at just $3,600 and is projected for less than 1% ownership, this is an exploitable public mistake. Bregman is slashing .280/.366/.428 with seven home runs on the season but has only made 279 plate appearances. This is a career .282/.379/.512 hitter with a .229 ISO who creates runs 43% better than average over a 2,697 plate appearances sample, he is a dynamite option tonight. At the end of the lineup, Jake Meyers and Martin Maldonado can be bolted onto stacks for position and price reasons as needed.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are a tale of two dramatically different situations from site to site tonight. They will be very negatively leveraged on FanDuel, but land at a plus mark that is targetable on the DraftKings slate, due to high pricing on a few key hitters. Philadelphia’s lineup has been somewhat overrated through the season and could be without JT Realmuto who sustained an ankle injury in yesterday’s game. The Phillies’ active roster has created runs 10% behind the league average by collective WRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, and they have just a league-average 3.55% home run rate and .165 ISO in the split. They strike out 22.7% of the time, which is the eighth-best rate in baseball and suggests that they will have the ball in play against Washington starter Josiah Gray. He is a highly regarded prospect who has made six starts and thrown 36 innings in the majors this season. Gray has a sharp 27.8% strikeout rate in the small sample and has induced a terrific 17.4% swinging strike rate with a 31.7% CSW, though his 8.6% walk rate is too high and his 12.6% barrel rate allowed is very poor. Gray has just a 4.62 xFIP and a 1.19 WHIP in the short sample, and he has given up 3.0 HR/9 despite a clean 33.7% hard-hit rate and just 87.6 mph average exit velocity. This has the Phillies bats profiling extremely well for power upside on this slate, while Gray’s walk and barrel rates make him targetable for sequential hitting and run creation despite the quality strikeout numbers.
Odubel Herrera has made 368 plate appearances this season, slashing .255/.309/.435 with 12 home runs and five stolen bases. He is not an ideal leadoff man given the lack of a significant hit tool or on-base acumen, but Herrera is playable for MLB DFS purposes. He has a respectable .180 ISO and has created runs just 2% behind the average despite the negative points this season. Herrera has a 40.4% hard-hit rate but just a 5.0% barrel rate, but he can be relied upon to put the ball in play, coming in at a 15.8% strikeout rate atop the lineup. However, for $3,900 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel, Herrera’s popularity may outpace his talent on this slate.
Jean Segura has just a 13.9% strikeout rate over 439 plate appearances this season. He is slashing .297/.358/.443 with 10 home runs and nine stolen bases, and he has created runs 16% better than average. For unknown reasons he costs just $3,200 despite the strong numbers and eligibility at three positions. On DraftKings Segura is limited to just second base and he costs $5,100, a stark difference from site to site that has him owned at less than a third of his FanDuel popularity.
Bryce Harper is leading all available hitters in the home run model on this slate, while the Phillies are atop the overall power index, a reflection of their collective home run upside. Harper is slashing .301/.417/.586 with a .285 ISO while creating runs 63% better than average this season. He has 25 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 461 plate appearances in what has somewhat quietly been a phenomenal season. Harper is well worth the $4,400 price tag on FanDuel.
The upside of the Phillies offense could swing on whether Realmuto is hitting in this spot. He is slashing .264/.353/.447 over 425 plate appearances and he creates runs 15% better than average by WRC+. Realmuto has 14 home runs while posting a .183 ISO and stealing eight bases this season, terrific numbers for his position. If Realmuto is in the lineup, the Phillies get a boost, and he should be rostered despite some popularity for $5,300 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel.
Andrew McCutchen missed Thursday and Friday’s games but started both weekend contests as he is seeing additional rest late in the year. McCutchen seems likely to play, which would make him interesting at a $2,700 price on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings. He has 21 home runs and has a .208 ISO this year while creating runs 7% better than average. He is slashing just .221/.336/.429 and has a 39.9% hard-hit rate and 9.7% barrel rate. McCutchen has clear upside in this spot, with his popularity projection pending.
Brad Miller hits from the left side of the plate and fills out first base inexpensively on both sites. On the DraftKings slate, he projects for less than 10% ownership, but on the blue site, he will be one of the day’s most popular players at over 25% given a ridiculous $2,300 price tag. Miller has power upside and a fantastic home run mark in this spot. He has 13 home runs in just 287 plate appearances this year while slashing .217/.307/.421 with a .205 ISO. Miller has a 48.2% hard-hit rate that matches Harper’s number in the category exactly, though he barrels the ball 11% of the time compared to Harper’s 16.3%. Miller has a hefty strikeout rate of 31.4%. Given the FanDuel popularity he can certainly be passed over for differentiation purposes, and there is something to be said for allowing the field to roster the potential production black hole created by the strikeouts, but Miller has too much upside for his price and low ownership on DraftKings.
Freddy Galvis slots in at both third base and shortstop on DraftKings, shortstop and second base on FanDuel. He is yet another over-owned bat in this lineup for the low $2,200 price on the blue site but is coming up for a below 10% projection for only $3,400 on DraftKings. Galvis is slashing .243/.302/.399 with a .156 ISO this season, and he has created runs 9% below average, but he has minor upside with nine home runs on the year. Galvis is a steady mix-in option where he is not overly popular.
Ronald Torreyes is slashing .254/.298/.363 with a .109 ISO and creates runs 21% worse than average, acting as ballast in the bottom of this lineup. Torreyes is a career backup who has six home runs and two stolen bases in his 268 plate appearances this season. His best attribute on this slate is a team-low ownership projection on FanDuel, though he is barely worth rostering on most nights.
If Realmuto sits, the Phillies’ thin catcher depth will be exposed, as Rafael Marchan seems likely to get the start. Marchan has made 32 plate appearances this season and is slashing .290/.313/.387 with a .098 ISO and no home runs. In 1,115 professional plate appearances at multiple levels, Marchan has exactly one home run.
HR Call: Bryce Harper — Philadelphia Phillies
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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