Saturday evening brings a solid eight-game slate of MLB DFS action to the table. There is a higher level of pitching talent available at the peak of salaries than we have seen on the last few slates, which presents an entirely different but no less difficult set of challenges for roster construction. Beyond those few choices, things get very lean very quickly. Utilizing the Top Pitchers Tool to break down the slate in terms of clear probability of success and ownership should be a fundamental part of the lineup building process. The tool is ideal for unicorn hunting or finding lower-cost high-upside starters who are under-owned by the field. Combining those starters with underappreciated stacks on the day or targeting specific situations with bats while rostering a spread of the best available pitchers is a solid approach to GPP play on this slate.
Daily Fantasy Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content, and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker — 8.38
Atlanta Braves: Jorge Soler — 6.37
Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez — 6.95
Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino — 10.26
Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 5.26
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera — 6.74
Houston Astros: Jose Altuve — 7.67
Kansas City Royals: Andrew Benintendi — 10.49
Los Angeles Angels: Jo Adell — 6.57
Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager — 11.73
Milwaukee Brewers: Avisail Garcia — 9.16
San Diego Padres: Wil Meyers — 4.23
San Francisco Giants: Darin Ruf — 6.22
Seattle Mariners: Ty France — 5.11
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 8.87
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 9.91
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Picks: Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
A few premium options lead the Saturday pitching slate before plummeting off a cliff like they were chasing the Roadrunner. Joe Musgrove tops the slate despite a difficult matchup against the Astros. Julio Urias of the Dodgers draws an equally challenging situation facing the Giants. However, Tyler Mahle is easily in the best situation among the most talented starters in a matchup against the strikeout-happy Tigers. On the other side of the Astros – Padres game, Framber Valdez is an interesting puzzle on this slate. The Astros lefty groundball specialist is an expert at limiting offensive upside, but he has struggled to rack up strikeouts in a meaningful fashion this season. Taking a risk on German Marquez against a deadly Braves lineup at Coors field may be worth considering when looking at the lack of viable mid-range and discount options.
Musgrove has struck out 28.1% of opposing hitters over 148.1 innings this season. He had a minor downturn over five or six starts in the middle of the summer but has been largely sharp through most of 2021. Musgrove has a 3.45 xFIP and a 0.99 WHIP on the season, and he induces a 13.1% swinging-strike rate with a 31.9% CSW%. The righty is very good at limiting quality contact. He has a 5.8% barrel rate and a 34.6% hard-hit percentage for the season and gives up just 0.97 HR/9. The only challenge in rostering the talented Padres starter is today’s opponent. The Astros are baseball’s best hitting lineup. They strike out just 20.5% of the time against right-handed pitching this season, a sustained trend back through the start of 2018 at least. Houston has a collective .179 ISO and a 3.95% home run rate in the split. Both marks are well above average though not at the very top of the league. The Astros lead all of baseball with a collective WRC+ 18% better than average against righties this season. They are also the league’s best run creators against lefties, coming in 21% ahead of the curve on that side of platoon splits. Houston is a formidable foe for Musgrove, but there is upside on a limited slate. He will be owned significantly by the public on DraftKings, where he costs just $8,900. For $9,200 on FanDuel, he is drawing similar popularity for the singular pitcher slot. Musgrove is trending into negative leverage on this slate but still makes for a playable option, considering an undercut to the field is always worthwhile on this level of popularity, but the lack of good options to spread those shares to is concerning.
Urias faces a Giants team that is elite against left-handed pitching. San Francisco’s active roster leads baseball with a 4.77% home run rate in the split. The team has a collective .187 ISO and strikes out merely 21.4% of the time against southpaws while creating runs eight percent better than average. San Francisco has long since passed overachieving status. They are simply a good team that will challenge the young lefty. Urias has thrown 150.2 innings this year, and he has a 26.5% strikeout rate with an excellent 5.3% walk percentage. He has a 3.68 xFIP with a 1.04 WHIP, induces an 11.8% swinging-strike rate, and is solid at limiting contact. Urias has yielded just a 6.1% barrel rate and allows only 30% hard-hit on the season. Early ownership projections have Urias in single-digit popularity on FanDuel and twice that on the DraftKings slate. He is not expensive at $9,500 and $9,700, respectively. He should be owned more by the public, which makes him a standout GPP play for this slate.
Mahle will be crushingly popular across both sites. The righty has had a strong year on the mound, posting a 28.1% strikeout rate with a 7.9% walk percentage over 148.1 in 27 outings. Mahle has a solid 3.73 xFIP and a 1.18 WHIP, he puts a few too many men on base, but his strikeout acumen makes up for many mistakes. The righty is another solid option at preventing opposing upside as well. He has yielded just a 7.2% barrel rate and a 33.3% hard-hit percentage on the season. There is significant upside in rostering Mahle in an ownership vacuum. He faces a toothless Tigers team that is second-worst in baseball with a 25.8% strikeout rate against righties this season. The active roster has a 3.35% home run rate and a .157 ISO that rank slightly below average, and they create runs 10% behind the curve against righties. This is a plus-plus opportunity, Mahle has a clear path to being the top-scoring pitcher on the night, and he will be a major inflection point for MLB DFS winners and losers. The Cincinnati righty has been a go-to option in this space since his first start of the season, he has incredible appeal in this spot, but the public popularity probably should not be ignored. Mahle is at extreme negative leverage numbers on both DraftKings and FanDuel, though the similar problem of where to move those shares still exists for anyone who chooses to undercut the field’s ownership.
On the other side of the Astros – Padres game, Valdez is arguably overpriced at $10,000 on DraftKings and $9,800 on FanDuel. He has a 22.4% strikeout rate for the season, a good but not great mark. The lefty is excellent at pitching to contact and keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark. He has allowed just a 5.1% barrel rate and induces a terrific average launch angle of -5.8 degrees. His season-long groundball rate sits at an incredible 69.8%. This is a tough pitcher to generate significant offense against. However, Valdez is more a safe play than he is dripping with upside, considering the low volume strikeout numbers and the quality opponent. San Diego is ninth in the league with a 22% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. They have just a 2.94% home run rate and a .154 ISO in the split. Both marks are surprisingly below average. The active roster creates runs one percent below average for the year, suggesting there is sneaky value in a clean start that goes deep into the game, even if there are limited strikeouts. Expecting a similar outing to what Adam Wainwright posted last night is reasonable in this situation, which would put Valdez in play considering the single-digit ownership across the industry.
Coors Field
Coors is on the slate once again, and the Braves are unsurprisingly the top-ranked team in the Top Stacks Tool for tonight’s slate. Atlanta is trending toward negative leverage on both sites. They are well into that range already on DraftKings and are fingernails from dropping off the positive ledge on the blue site. The hometown Rockies are a few slots behind the visiting club by their probability of success, but they will be over-owned on both sites as well. However, with two solid pitchers on the mound, this seems to be a spot where considering an undercut to the overly popular Coors bats should prove worthwhile. The game does have the highest total on the night, but walking hitters into German Marquez’ 24.3% strikeout rate and 3.53 xFIP with a 4.9% barrel rate and just 37.3% hard-hit does not seem like a great plan. The same can be said about using the terrible Rockies lineup against Ian Anderson, who is making his second start back from injury. Anderson went 5.2 in his first outing, so only a bad start would limit his innings. The righty has thrown 101.2 innings for the season and has a 3.82 xFIP with a 23.1% strikeout rate. Anderson does yield quality contact. He has a 9.5% barrel rate and allows 39.6% hard-hit but keeps the ball down well with just a 5.6-degree average launch angle. Neither offense stands out in my home run model, though both project well for MLB DFS point-scoring, given the game total and general environment. With so much public weight and several targetable pitchers in other games, it makes sense to move off Coors Field shares on this slate. My favorite Braves bats would be a list of the entire lineup. The ideal Rockies to include are Brendan Rodgers, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, C.J. Cron and Ryan McMahon, but they are the clear targets for everyone.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers look like the best spot for positive leverage and upside at the plate on the FanDuel slate. On DraftKings, they are coming up at about level popularity. The loaded lineup is likely to face Sammy Long, though he has not yet been confirmed as the starter. Long is a reasonably talented lefty who has made seven starts this season. The southpaw has a 23% strikeout rate and a 4.67 xFIP on the season, however, and he allows too much power to righties while not throwing enough strikes overall. Los Angeles is filled top to bottom with quality right-handed bats or hitters who are excellent in same-handed matchups against fellow southpaws. The Dodgers are expensive on the FanDuel slate but relatively affordable on DraftKings, where the average hitter price in the projected lineup is at just $4,500. Go-to Dodgers include Trea Turner, Max Muncy, who is slashing .287/.410/.600 with a .313 ISO against fellow lefties this season, Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Corey Seager, and Will Smith. Former MVP Cody Bellinger has been relegated to platoon duties and is unlikely to start, which would put AJ Pollock and Chris Taylor in their usual spots near the bottom of the lineup against a lefty starter. This lineup is highly playable against a right-handed opponent as well. If Long does not get the nod, we may see Bellinger and a different configuration of this batting order. Unless ownership sees a moonshot, the Dodgers can be played in any situation.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are facing Adrian Houser on this slate, and they are among the more highly-ranked teams that are also pulling positive leverage. The Cardinals have been featured in this space numerous times this season, they have powerful bats that have largely underachieved for their perceived talent levels, but they remain a good lineup and one that can certainly get to pitching of this quality. Houser is extremely limited, he has a 17.9% strikeout rate with a 4.35 xFIP on the season, and he allows 38.3% hard-hit with a 6.3% barrel rate while walking a whopping 11%, making him very targetable for both power and sequencing. The Cardinals profile as only average for home run upside in my model, but the run creation opportunities should be abundant for an under-owned team. St. Louis’ prime players are Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado and Tyler O’Neill. Catcher Yadier Molina had one of his infrequent strong games last night and is always playable for that opportunity as a catcher where the position is required. Edmundo Sosa and Harrison Bader round out the bottom of the lineup with quality. Sosa, in particular, has been good this season, slashing .278/.357/.408 while creating runs 12% better than average over his 254 plate appearances. Bader adds a little power and speed upside, but his WRC+ falls three percent below average over 295 opportunities this year. Both players can be rostered. This lineup plays well at single-digit ownership from top to bottom. They look like a much better option than their over-owned opponents.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals present an interesting puzzle on this slate. Kansas City has been a below-average club for power and run creation this season. The active roster has a 3.06% home run rate and a .145 ISO against right-handed pitching while creating runs 13% behind the curve. The team is good at keeping the ball in play. However, they have a 21.8% strikeout rate that sits fifth-best in baseball. The Royals have major speed upside, and they take advantage of it when they are on base, racking up stolen bases and bonus points for MLB DFS play. They are pulling powerful marks in my home run model, partly because some historical data is being used for Reynaldo Lopez, who is taking the mound for the opposing White Sox. Lopez has been excellent in his four starts this season. He has a 3.47 xFIP and a 1.54 ERA with a 0.69 WHIP and has struck out 29.8% while walking just 5.6%. He has also limited opponents to just a 31.3% hard-hit percentage and a 7.5% barrel rate this year, and he has yielded just 0.77 HR/9. For his brief career, the post-hype prospect has thrown 525.2 innings and has a 5.16 xFIP and a 20% strikeout rate with an 8.8% walk rate and a bumpy 1.42 HR/9. Lopez was an apex prospect who is yet to reliably put things together at the Major League level. It is not out of the question that he has finally made the leap, but if we get regression of any kind, it could yield significant MLB DFS point scoring opportunities for the Royals. With no one rostering them, Kansas City is at least interesting for tournament play in this spot.
Whit Merrifield leads off for the Royals and has been one of baseball’s best stolen base assets this season. Merrifield has swiped 38 bags in 592 plate appearances despite slashing .277/.321/.399. He would be scary if he were getting on base more frequently. The infielder-outfielder strikes out at just a 13.7% clip but does not walk enough for his role in the offense at just a 6.1% mark. Merrifield has provided mid-range power in the past, but it has been minimal this season. He has just a 27.8% hard-hit rate and a 3.0% barrel rate that he has translated into 10 home runs and a .122 ISO for the season. Merrifield surprisingly falls five percent below average by WRC+, but he is a key play when stacking the Royals on this slate.
Nicky Lopez provides shortstop and second base eligibility on the FanDuel slate but is just a shortstop on DraftKings. Lopez is a speed and on-base specialist atop this lineup. He has stolen 18 bases in 441 plate appearances this year but has just one home run and a lowly .070 ISO. The infielder relies on his teammates to help with run creation. He is one percent ahead of the curve by WRC+ and is slashing .286/.360/.357 on the season. Lopez is a correlation play only, though he can find a few additional points with his stolen base upside.
Sal Perez has been among baseball’s elite home run options at any position this season. Perez has smashed 38 long balls in his 547 plate appearances, he is baseball’s best offensive option at the catcher position, and he plays every day, making him a spectacular MLB DFS option on virtually every slate. Perez is expensive at $5,900 on DraftKings, but he costs just $3,600 on the blue site. He is in the 1-2% popularity range in Ownership Projections today. This is a mistake.
Switch-hitting Carlos Santana is a solid cleanup bat who will be inexpensive and unpopular across the industry. The first baseman comes in slashing .226/.330/.366 with just 17 home runs in his 549 plate appearances. Santana has a .140 ISO and has created runs seven percent behind the curve this season, concerning marks for a quality power bat who hit 34 home runs in 2019 and 2016, with a 23 and 24 home run season in between. Santana is a better bat than he has been this season. His career ISO is .193. There is dormant any-given-slate upside in rostering him.
Outfielder Andrew Benintendi is another mid-range power and speed bat in the Kansas City lineup. Benintendi was a premium prospect in the Red Sox organization before landing with the Royals. The biggest detriment to his career to this point has been injuries. He provides value when he is in the lineup, though there are clear holes in his overall game. This season, the outfielder is slashing .255/.299/.406 with 12 home runs and eight stolen bases in 423 plate appearances. He needs to improve the on-base or hit tool to take the next step at this level, but he makes quality contact regularly with a 42% hard-hit rate and a steady 8.9% barrel rate while striking out just 19.6% of the time. Benintendi is a low-cost low-popularity GPP play on both sites when stacking Royals.
Adalberto Mondesi has missed most of the season and comes in at a fair price for his talents. The switch-hitter has made just 47 plate appearances this season. He is slashing .356/.370/.800 with five home runs and three stolen bases in the tiny sample. Those numbers translate to a .444 ISO with a WRC+ 112% better than average. Obviously, that is unsustainable production, but Mondesi is an outstanding player, and he fills a premium position at shortstop for a lower investment than many of his peers. Mondesi hit six home runs and stole 24 bases in just 233 plate appearances in the short 2020 season, and he had 43 swiped bags with nine home runs in a mere 443 plate appearances the year before.
The projected lineup continues with outfielder Michael A. Taylor who comes in at just $2,500 on both sites. The outfielder has hit 11 home runs and stolen 12 bases on the season, providing his usual unpredictable range of outcomes for MLB DFS purposes. He is slashing .247/.302/.361 with a .114 ISO for the season, somewhat betraying the quality shown in those counting stats. This is further drawn out by the fact that he creates runs 19% worse than average. Taylor is a reasonable bolt-on option for Royals stacks but not much more.
Ryan O’Hearn fills first base and adds outfield eligibility on DraftKings. He is slashing just .228/.260/.393 over 219 plate appearances, but he has hit nine home runs and has a .165 ISO, showing occasional flashes of power. O’Hearn has a 44.5% hard-hit rate with a 9.6% barrel rate this season, but he strikes out 28.8% of the time. When he makes contact, he is capable of driving the ball, but he should only be deployed as an end-cap to mid-lineup stacks instead of a wraparound option.
Hanser Alberto fills second and third base eligibility and slashes .259/.274/.376 with a .117 ISO and creates runs 28% behind the league average while barreling the ball just 3.2% of the time. The infielder’s best asset is putting the ball in play, he strikes out just 11.6% of the time, but with no power and little run creation upside, he is not an overly viable option on this slate.
HR Call: Sal Perez — Kansas City Royals
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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