MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 8/29/21

Sunday afternoon’s 11-game slate comes up very short on reliable pitching options. While several starters will surely post slate-relevant strong scores, MLB DFS contests seem to be aligning far more behind bats and offense. Several teams carrying heavy averages in the power index for home runs and well for sequencing and run creation. This is a day where spreading shares of bats seems to be the strong approach.

Daily Fantasy Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte — 4.17

Atlanta Braves: Adam Duvall — 10.08

Baltimore Orioles: Cedric Mullins — 9.05

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 26.52

Chicago Cubs: Frank Schwindel — 8.47

Chicago White Sox: Yasmani Grandal — 8.49

Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez — 13.60

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 4.77

Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario — 4.35

Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker — 10.81

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 8.76

Milwaukee Brewers: Rowdy Tellez — 15.76

Minnesota Twins: Miguel Sano — 14.45

New York Mets: Javier Baez — 10.88

Philadelphia Phillies: Brad Miller — 10.55

Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 9.32

San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 4.01

St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 17.62

Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 5.04

Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 10.13

Toronto Blue Jays: Bo Bichette — 10.07

Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 8.48


Latest MLB DFS Content


Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Picks: Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

The Sunday pitching slate seems somewhat thin at the top and fails to truly stretch out as we get through the mid-range. The slate is topped by Tyler Mahle, who will be facing a weak Marlins team that has led to dominant pitching forecasts all season. Fans of alternate spellings can look to Tylor Megill, who will take the mound for the Mets in a good spot against the depleted Nationals, while Dylan Cease will face the lowly Cubs in Chicago’s cross-town finale. The top end of the pitching board is rounded out by Zack Greinke and Jose Berrios, who are both in plus matchups against the Rangers and Tigers, respectively. Atlanta’s Ian Anderson is making his first start since July 11th and he will be challenged by the powerful Giants offense, making him a tough decision point on the slate, while Madison Bumgarner takes on the Phillies while looking to get back on track after a rough outing on the western end of Pennsylvania in his last outing against the Pirates. The bulk of the remaining pitchers on the slate range from mediocre to targetable for bats.

Mahle has had a strong season by most measures, and he has posted MLB DFS slate-leading pitching scores several times this season. Mahle has thrown 141.1 innings with a 28.2% strikeout rate and a 3.75 xFIP this season. He walks 7.9% of opposing hitters and has a 1.20 WHIP. Mahle allows a 7.3% barrel rate and limits hard hits to just 34.3% while yielding 88.5 mph average exit velocity. Mahle shines in projections today for the matchup against a Miami Marlins squad that is well below average in every important metric on offense. Miami creates runs 17% behind the league average against right-handed pitching, they have just a .129 ISO and a 2.64% home run rate in the split and they strike out 24.6% of the time, eighth worst in baseball. Mahle is likely to be extremely popular for just $9,600 on FanDuel and $9,800 on DraftKings, but the spot and his standing as arguably the slate’s most talented strikeout pitcher vault Mahle into consideration for significant shares on both sites.

Megill has been sharp across 12 starts for the Mets this season. He has a 25.6% strikeout rate in 59.2 innings, pitching to a 4.05 xFIP with a 1.27 WHIP. He walks just 5.9% of hitters, helping him stay out of jams and keep opposing run creation somewhat limited. He yields an 8.1% barrel rate and allows 41.9% hard hits, but the ability to induce a 12% swinging strike rate as a rookie should not be ignored despite the quality contact allowed. Megill sits in the 51st percentile of expected slugging percentage allowed. In a slate-specific sense for today’s action, he stands as one of the day’s best options. He will be facing a Nationals team that has been well below average. Washington’s active roster has a 23.4% strikeout rate that ranks 13th overall against righties, which is their best standing in any of the monitored categories. He has a .132 ISO and a 2.70% home run rate in the split, and they create runs 14% behind the league average. Megill should provide strikeout upside for his $7,000 price on FanDuel and $7,200 on DraftKings, though the low cost on both sites will likely render him explosively popular in this matchup.

With Dylan Cease taking on the weak crosstown opponents and coming in at just a $9,300 price tag on FanDuel, and even at $10,000 on DraftKings he is likely to be another heavily owned play. Cease has a 30.2% strikeout rate with a 3.99 xFIP, though he puts too many on base, coming in at a 9.2% walk rate and a 1.23 WHIP. This is a long-expected breakout for Cease, his strikeout stuff has always been apparent, but harnessing control and command had eluded him up until this season. If the starter continues his growth trend he could make a major leap next season, simply by cutting his walks. Cease has yielded a 9.8% barrel rate that is also higher than one would like, but he overcomes it by limiting hard hits to 35.7%. The opposing Cubs are in shambles. This configuration of the roster sits tied for last in baseball with a 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. They have a 3.33% home run rate and a .148 ISO that are both in the bottom half of the league, and they create runs 14% worse than the average by collective WRC+. Cease has a very good chance of posting a dominant score on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Berrios is too talented and in too good a spot against the tame Tigers for him to be priced at $8,500 on this slate on the blue site. Berrios costs just $9,100 on DraftKings but is inexplicably low owned on both sites. He has thrown 146 innings in 25 starts this season, turning in a 25% strikeout rate with a 6.6% walk percentage. He has pitched to a 3.77 xFIP and a 1.14 WHIP while allowing a medium level of premium contact with an 8.5% barrel rate and 38.4% hard hits. Berrios will be facing a Tigers team that is the organization tied up in the league cellar with the Cubs at a 25.9% strikeout rate against righties. Detroit hits for slightly more extra-base power, though they hit fewer home runs than the Cubs, coming in at a .154 ISO with a 3.26% home run rate, they create runs 11% worse than average, another slight uptick over the Cubs when considering matchup-based decisions. Getting to this pitcher in this spot on this slate could prove to be an excellent decision, Berrios deserves more love from the public than he is currently projected to receive.

Boston Red Sox

The power-packed Red Sox lineup stands atop the power index above, reflecting their significant upside for home run potential tonight, while they also land as one of the highest-ranked offenses on the Top Stacks Tool. Boston is a popular option, but the explosive upside warrants mention. The Red Sox are facing Eli Morgan, a righty who has a 22.8% strikeout rate over 58.2 innings this season. Morgan has walked just 5.5% of hitters but has a bumpy 4.84 xFIP and a 1.31 WHIP. He has yielded a significant 11.7% barrel rate that is playing directly into the Red Sox power. He gives up a 20.2-degree average launch angle and a 40.8% hard-hit rate, all of these marks are ideal for home run upside. Boston’s projected lineup includes the obvious core of Alex Verdugo, Kyle Schwarber, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and J.D. Martinez. Bolting on lower-owned options like Travis Shaw and Jarren Duran will provide upside at less popularity and lower prices, while Christian Vazquez and Jonathan Arauz are more straightforward offsets of cost and ownership.

Houston Astros

This is your daily reminder that the Astros will be under-owned for their extreme upside. Baseball’s best hitting team overall comes with expensive price tags, they are always difficult to roster but are frequently worth the effort. Today’s contest sees them facing young lefty Taylor Hearn. He has made five starts and thrown 70.2 innings in the Majors this season overall. Hearn has a 23.5% strikeout rate and a 4.69 xFIP on the season. The Astros have significant upside on this slate. Go-to options include essentially the entire lineup, all of whom will be owned by less than 5% of the public. One notable hitter who stands out for being too low owned despite a fair price on FanDuel is Yuli Gurriel. He has been featured in this space numerous times throughout the season. He is having an excellent year at the plate, coming in slashing .314/.383/.475 with 13 home runs and a .161 ISO while creating runs 39% better than average by WRC+. Gurriel costs $5,400 on the other side of town but will be owned at roughly similar levels on both sites. An inexpensive three-man stack of Alex Bregman, Gurriel and Kyle Tucker from five through seven in this lineup seems like a solid approach on FanDuel where their average salary is somehow just $3,400.

Chicago White Sox

The loaded White Sox lineup will be supporting Cease in their game against the Cubs, and they are projected to land at positive leverage against Kyle Hendricks. He pitches to contact and is likely to struggle against this squad, despite a bit of guile and effectiveness limiting power potential. Hendricks has just a 17.3% strikeout rate over his 151.2 innings. He yields an 8% barrel rate but just a 32.9% hard-hit percentage and 86.4 mph average exit velocity. Chicago’s lineup is filled with excellent hitters who can capitalize on the opportunity to make contact, and there is more than enough home run upside even with the limited hard contact.

Tim Anderson costs $4,300 on the FanDuel slate and $5,100 on DraftKings, making him the most expensive member of this lineup on both sites. Anderson is slashing .302/.331/.458 on the season. He creates runs 17% ahead of the league average and is one of the best available leadoff hitters and an excellent option at his position for any price. Anderson will be extremely low-owned on the FanDuel slate and is easily playable at under 10% popularity on the other side of the industry.

Luis Robert will be the most popular White Sox bat on DraftKings, coming in with a 10.5% projection. He missed a large portion of the season but has been fantastic when on the field. Robert is slashing .340/.380/.516 over 171 plate appearances this year. Robert is a fantastic option in White Sox stacks, particularly with just a $3,900 salary on DraftKings.

Jose Abreu has a 49% hard-hit rate and a 10.6% barrel rate that has translated into 27 home runs and a .233 ISO this season. Abreu is slashing .261/.343/.494 on the year and is one of the primary cogs in the White Sox run creation machine, coming in 29% ahead of the average. Abreu comes in at $4,800 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel but will be owned in the mid-single digits despite the fair pricing.

Eloy Jimenez has hit seven home runs in 119 plate appearances and is slashing .279/.319/.523 with a .243 ISO in 119 plate appearances this season. He creates runs 28% better than average and has a team-leading mark in my personal home run model. Jimenez is making just 43.7% hard contact this season, but he has a solid 11.5% barrel rate and is still rounding into form after missing most of the year with an injury.

Yoan Moncada slots in at third base on both FanDuel and DraftKings and will be fairly priced on both sites. He has had a down year at the plate, but he is still productive and deserves more attention than he is getting. Moncada is slashing .264/.376/.399 with just 11 home runs and a .134 ISO over 503 plate appearances. He still creates runs 21% better than average and hits in the middle of this loaded lineup, however, making him an excellent play at less than 10% ownership across the industry.

Yasmani Grandal has just a .201 batting average but a stellar .396/.476 back-end of his triple-slash and a massive .275 ISO. He has hit 16 home runs in his 256 plate appearances and walks in a whopping 23.8% of his plate appearances and he makes hard contact 53.9% of the time, numbers that rival slugger Joey Gallo of the Yankees. Grandal is priced up to $5,100 on DraftKings but somehow costs $2,800 on FanDuel, where he is one of the best overall plays on the entire slate at less than 10% popularity.

Cesar Hernandez is slashing just .228/.305/.403 but has hit 21 home runs in 537 plate appearances for Cleveland and Chicago. He has a .175 ISO but has created runs 8% below average. Hernandez is easily playable, but he is a far less mandatory piece of White Sox stacks than his previously mentioned teammates.

Andrew Vaughn has hit 15 home runs in 416 plate appearances this season. He makes hard contact 47.5% of the time and has a 10.6% barrel rate, impressive numbers for an eight-hitter. Vaughn is far too cheap at $2,400 on the DraftKings slate, where he can be rostered at first base or in the outfield; the same is true on FanDuel, where he also carries multi-position eligibility and costs a mere $2,600.

Leury Garcia has outfield eligibility on DraftKings and is either a second baseman or shortstop on the FanDuel slate. Garcia is slashing .246/.323/.339 with just a .093 ISO while creating runs 13% behind the average. With the entire lineup going under-owned, Garcia is more of an afterthought, but he can absolutely be deployed in wrap-around constructions as necessary.

HR Call: Josh Donaldson — Minnesota Twins

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!

[MLBPAGE]

Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

Premium Data

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.