With a 10-game midweek slate on tap, Wednesday brings a good deal of quality pitching selections to the MLB DFS table. The slate is loaded with options on the mound, which should serve to somewhat limit the upside in a number of offenses. This tends to concentrate ownership shares on just a few teams facing lesser pitching, which creates interesting GPP opportunities around other stacks. Differentiation of bats in our MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel becomes critical in a slate like this, and rotating between viable pitching options is the approach on the bump.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Josh Rojas — 5.98
Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 4.60
Boston Red Sox: Kyle Schwarber — 21.42
Chicago White Sox: Andrew Vaughn — 9.70
Cincinnati Reds: Tyler Naquin — 5.75
Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 13.76
Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton — 14.38
Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger — 10.81
Miami Marlins: Lewis Brinson — 14.00
Milwaukee Brewers: Avisail Garcia — 4.72
Minnesota Twins: Brent Rooker — 11.17
New York Mets: Francisco Lindor — 8.87
Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen — 7.81
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 9.35
San Diego Padres: Trent Grisham — 6.88
San Francisco Giants: Kris Bryant — 6.32
Tampa Bay Rays: Mike Zunino — 3.47
Texas Rangers: D.J. Peters — 9.07
Toronto Blue Jays: Marcus Semien — 8.79
Washington Nationals: Yadiel Hernandez — 9.04
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The concentration of high-end pitchers on the same slates has grown ridiculous in recent weeks, taking MLB DFS gamers from pitching desert to deluge and back again from day to day. The Wednesday slate is loaded with arms, there are no less than five legitimate aces going for their teams, and the broad mid-range has a number of appealing options. At the top, Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff will look to shine against Cincinnati’s challenging lineup, while Zack Wheeler faces a hard-hitting Rays team. Walker Buehler will face San Diego in another contest that sees a top-end starter take on a difficult offense, and Robbie Ray continues that trend in his start against the White Sox. Lucas Giolito is on the other side of Ray’s game, Shohei Ohtani taking on the mediocre Baltimore squad in their hitter’s haven, and Luis Castillo in his sixth start of the season against Milwaukee. With additional quality possible in Zach Plesac, Taijuan Walker, Josiah Gray and Nick Pivetta, the slate is wide open for scoring and upside on the mound tonight.
Woodruff has thrown 145.1 innings in 24 starts this season. He has a 29.3% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate on the season, pitching to an excellent 3.10 xFIP. Woodruff has induced a 12.3% swinging strike rate and a 29.7% CSW for the season, while allowing just a 5% barrel rate and a 30.2% hard-hit percentage. His average exit velocity allowed sits at just 85.4 mph, and he yields just a 9.5-degree average launch angle, making it difficult to hit the ball out of the yard. He faces a difficult Reds team that has a .196 collective ISO and a 4.42% home run rate against right-handed pitching, both well ahead of the curve. The Reds strike out just 22.9% of the time in the split, the eighth-best mark in baseball, and they create runs 11% better than average. Woodruff is not entirely safe in this challenging situation, but he is highly likely to put up one of the night’s best scores. For $10,300 on FanDuel and $10,200 on DraftKings he is drawing heavy ownership that is trending toward being twice his probability of being the top scoring pitcher on this deep slate. Woodruff should be rostered, but an undercut to the field may be in order.
On the other side of the same contest, Castillo continues his strange roller coaster of a season. He has thrown 144.2 innings and has a 3.79 xFIP with a 23.1% strikeout rate, inducing a 12.9% swinging strike rate but compiling just a 27.4% CSW. He has yielded a .318 batting average on balls in play this season, a bit of bad luck and happenstance that have inflated his WHIP to a 1.40 for the season. Castillo has allowed just a 5% barrel rate and a 4.5-degree average launch angle, with 38.5% hard hits. He will be facing a Brewers team that has a 24.1% strikeout rate in the split, 19th out of baseball’s 30 teams. Milwaukee has a .172 ISO and 3.84% home run rate against right-handed pitching, both marks are slightly above average, so there is some threat to Castillo’s upside if he makes mistakes. Overall, however, Milwaukee’s active roster creates runs 5% worse than average in the split, which should lend upside to the starter. Castillo is cheap for his talent at $9,300 on DraftKings and $9.700 on FanDuel, and he will be owned at less than 2.5% on both sites.
When looking simply at earned runs, it would be fair to think that the bloom has come off the rose somewhat for Wheeler’s 2021 season. He had been largely terrific through most of the season but has had several bumpy outings for runs over the last month. Wheeler still sits at a sharp 29.1% strikeout rate with just a 5.4% walk rate on the season, and he has a stellar 2.82 xFIP with a 1.00 WHIP. He has induced a 12.6% swinging strike rate and allows just a 4.6% barrel rate to opposing hitters. He has been excellent at limiting quality contact as well, coming in with a 30.2% hard-hit rate and allowing just 84.9 mph average exit velocity. He faces a Tampa Bay squad that strikes out a lot at 24.8% in the split but is excellent for power and run creation. The Rays have a .207 ISO and a 4.70% home run rate in the split, while creating runs 16% better than average, making their living brutalizing right-handed pitchers. Wheeler is pricey at $11,000 on the FanDuel slate, but his popularity is barely impacted. On DraftKings he looks extremely popular for just $10,000. Wheeler is another should-play starter who potentially warrants an undercut based on the price, opponent and popularity.
Buehler has been one of baseball’s most reliable pitchers all season. Over 162.1 innings in 25 starts, he has a 3.57 xFIP with a 26.9% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate. He has just a 0.93 WHIP, keeping runners off the bases with clear reliability. Buehler yields just a 7% barrel rate and 36.1% hard-hit rate. Even in a difficult matchup against the Padres, Buehler presents at least the idea of a safe reliable floor. He is very expensive on the blue site, where he lands at $11,300 and will be virtually unowned. He is not nearly popular enough at just 9.7% ownership on a $9,700 price tag on DraftKings, making him a fantastic tournament play on that site despite a matchup against San Diego. The Padres active roster is second-best in the league with just a 20.8% strikeout rate against righties. They are only average for power in the split, coming in with a .165 ISO and a 3.55% home run rate, but they create runs 4% better than average in the split. Buehler could surprise a significant cross section of the field with a big start tonight.
Ohtani is similarly price prohibitive on the FanDuel slate. He costs $11,600 on the blue site and $8,700 on DraftKings, a borderline absurd pricing discrepancy. The low sticker price on DraftKings is not inflating Ohtani’s popularity like one might expect, however, leaving him as an interesting play against the Orioles. Ohtani has been good on the mound, though his star shines brightest at the plate. He has a 29.6% strikeout rate over 100 innings in 18 starts this season, but he still walks too many at 9.6%. He has a 3.60 xFIP, a 1.06 WHIP, induces a 13.4% swinging strike rate and has a 29.2% CSW. Ohtani has allowed a 6.3% barrel rate and a concerning 41% hard-hit rate, but he rarely gets into too much trouble despite the hefty walk rate. He will face an Orioles team that falls somewhat below average with a .167 ISO and a 3.57% home run rate in the split, while creating runs 3% behind the league average. Baltimore strikes out 24.8% of the time in the split, the 23rd-ranked mark in the league. Ohtani is not owned to the degree that he should be, though at the inflated FanDuel price that makes some sense.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels bats will back Ohtani against Chris Ellis, who will be making the first start in his Major League career. Ellis has thrown four innings in the majors this season, and 57 in Triple-A with Tampa Bay’s system. In the minors, Ellis had a 4.87 xFIP with a 6.32 ERA and a 22.7% strikeout rate with a 10.9% walk rate. This is a very targetable pitcher at this level, and the Angels have several interesting bats to throw at him, though DFS lineups will be without Ohtani, who is on the mound. Looking to power bats like Jared Walsh and Justin Upton as well as some of the correlation plays including David Fletcher, Phillip Gosselin and Jose Iglesias gets the core of the available Angels athletes. Adding Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell drops some underappreciated youthful upside into the back end of the stack, while catcher Max Stassi can provide positional value. The lineup is not great without Ohtani, however, and they are trending toward being too popular on both sites. Without their best bat and with the two next-most appealing options well over 20% popularity across the industry, the Angels seem like a good team to roster conservatively while spreading shares to less popular upside teams.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox loaded lineup faces Robbie Ray, who has been sharp for most of the season. Ray has a 30.7% strikeout rate over his 145.1 innings this season and has cut his career walks mark in half at just 6.4% in 2021. He is sharp with a 3.37 xFIP and a 15.1% induced swinging strike rate, but he still yields a significant amount of premium contact for such a high-end starter. Ray has allowed a 9.1% barrel rate with a 16-degree average launch angle, a whopping 43.4% hard-hit rate and 90.6 mph average exit velocity. Ray is most likely going to put up a strong start, but against a team like the White Sox, those contact metrics could catch up to the starter quickly. They have a .188 ISO and a 4.47% home run rate in the split and create runs 11% better than average. Their 23.9% strikeout rate is below average, which could give more upside to Ray and limit their production, but this is clearly a both-sides opportunity for GPP play at worst. The White Sox are expected to get Tim Anderson back in the lineup today. He will be ably backed by Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Andrew Vaugh, Brian Goodwin and catcher Seby Zavala, all of whom are playable at single-digit ownership.
San Francisco Giants
At what point does perceived overachieving simply become the expectation? The San Francisco Giants season has been an attempt to answer that question, as they have continued to surprise as one of baseball’s best offenses throughout the year. Against right-handed pitching this season, San Francisco has a 4.65% home run rate with a .203 ISO, ranking third and fourth in the league respectively, while creating runs 11% better than average. They do strike out at an inflated 25% against righties, but Giants bats have upside against Walker. He is pitching to a 4.41 xFIP with a 22.5% strikeout rate and a bumpy 8.9% walk rate with a 1.18 WHIP. Walker induces a 9.5% swinging strike rate and has a 28.5% CSW, both below average. He yields a 9.3% barrel rate and 39.2% hard hits, making him a pitcher who is targetable for both power and run creation. This is a strong spot for the under-owned Giants.
LaMonte Wade Jr. is slashing .251/.321/.533 with a stunning .282 ISO and 17 home runs in just 254 plate appearances. The power surge has led to a WRC+ 27% ahead of the average despite the pedestrian hit and on-base skills. Wade costs $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,400 on FanDuel, which is too cheap for the numbers he has put up through the season.
Brandon Belt has made 262 plate appearances this season and has hit 19 home runs, translating his 45.5% hard-hit and 16.6% barrel rates into a titanic .309 ISO. He has created runs 43% ahead of the league average by WRC+ and is slashing .247/.355/.556 out of the No. 2 spot in this lineup. He is a fantastic option for power from the left side of the plate against this pitcher.
Buster Posey comes in slashing .314/.408/.517 with 15 home runs, a .203 ISO and a WRC+ that sits a fantastic 51% ahead of the average. Posey had a 42.9% hard-hit rate and strikes out just 19.6% of the time, while walking 13.4% (a mark that matches Belt in the statistic). If Posey is in a run creation slot like hitting third, he is a major upside play, particularly where his position is required, yet he only costs $4,700 on that site.
Brandon Crawford has a long track record of mid-range quality with the stick, providing modest upside for power through his career. This season his production has rocketed skyward. He has hit 19 home runs in 406 plate appearances, adding 10 stolen bases and creating runs 38% better than average. Crawford is slashing .300/.367/.531 with a .231 ISO.
Kris Bryant is slashing .268/.353/.504 with a .236 ISO and 22 home runs on the season. Bryant has added seven stolen bases to his MLB DFS scoring tally on the season, and he provides multi-position eligibility between third base and the outfield on both sites. Bryant is the Giants’ most expensive bat on both sites, coming in at a hefty $5,600 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel, which helps suppress what should be far higher ownership.
Alex Dickerson has a 39.2% hard-hit rate with a 10.2% barrel rate this season. He has translated the steady stream of strong contact into 13 home runs and a .198 ISO, though he is slashing just .241/.309/.440 and creates runs only 3% ahead of the average. Dickerson is affordable and in a good spot in the lineup.
Mike Yastrzemski has hit 20 home runs this season and has a .239 ISO, but his hit tool and on-base skills have been lacking. He is slashing just .220/.307/.458 on the season, though his run creation still stands 5% above average thanks to the significant power. He is projected for less than 2% ownership across the industry.
Tommy La Stella slots in at second base for $3,500 on DraftKings and is a $2,300 option at second and third base on FanDuel. La Stella has made 132 plate appearances this season and is slashing .250/.313/.358 with two home runs. He has not shown major power upside this season, his ISO sits at just .108 this season but it was at .168 over 228 plate appearances in 2020 and .192 with 16 home runs in 321 opportunities in 2019. La Stella makes for a sneaky bolt-on play from the bottom of the lineup in either an endcap or wraparound form.
HR Call: Jesus Aguilar — Miami Marlins
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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