Wednesday, Aug. 19, we have a 7:05pm ET 11-game “main” slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
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Greetings, Gamers! For a third straight day we have twenty-two teams in action on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft.
Similar to last year, I will be providing a review of one stack for each of the day’s slates. Some of these short-slate options will be good for the full-game set, others will be more contrarian and better suited for the mini-game sets.
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MLB DFS Afternoon-Slate Picks
Baltimore Orioles vs. RHP Tanner Roark – 5.0 implied runs
My hope is that the Batters of Birdland become somewhat contrarian on our short afternoon slate. FanDuel is including only the two games in the one o’clock hour. DraftKings is adding in Game 1 of the Cardinals and Cubs doubleheader. On DraftKings I prefer both pitchers in that game over the other four options. On FanDuel ideally gamers want to “pick on the Orioles” and they roll with RHPÂ Tanner Roark.
Looking at the other FanDuel choices of Tommy Millone, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hart, Roark is the “best” option. However, he is still pretty mediocre. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, the 759 lefties that have faced the veteran hurler have compiled a 1.59 HR/9 rate, .200 ISO and a 9.0 BB%. Same-handed hitters have not done as well, but are still above league average.
Anthony Santander is our first priority and on Tuesday night he had his second two-home run game in less than a week. Over his last 419 plate appearances against righties, the switch-hitter has posted a .250 xISO. Rio Ruiz has flashed the lumber this season with a home run every ten at bats. Finally, Dwight Smith Jr.also has a little pop in his bat with a .190 xISO over his last 394 lefty/righty matchups.
MLB DFS Main-Slate Picks
Minnesota Twins vs. LHP Brett Anderson – 5.1 implied runs
Here we go again, the Twinkies get a matchup with a subpar southpaw. LHP Brett Anderson is stretch out and should see 80-85 pitches. If you are playing on FanDuel, you should start your lineups with Mitch Garver who is $2,500. This is basically half of his $4,900 price tag on DraftKings. In his last 256 righty/lefty matchups he has posted a .245 ISO and 134 wRC+. In his age 40 season, Nelson Cruz is still getting it done and he is a noted left-masher.
Miguel Sano has been abysmal this year with a .148 average. However, seven of his nine hits have gone for extra bases including four home runs. Byron Buxton never seems to capitalize on his talent, but he is on a hot streak. In his last ten games he has a .297/.622/.911 triple slash line.
Related MLB DFS Content
- Spotlight Hitters
- MLB Cram Session Part 1
- MLB Cram Session Part 2
- MLB Cram Session Part 3
- Top MLB DFS Stacks, Quick Hits
- The MLB Strategy Show Live Before Lock
MLB DFS Late-Slate Picks
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at RHP Johnny Cueto – 4.6 implied runs
If you have been reading my column, you know that I am starting to become convinced that the off-season changes to Oracle Park have apparently enhanced the scoring to near Coors Field proportions. Okay, that is VERY hyperbolic, but this is starting to feel more like a phenomenon than randomness in a small sample size.
In nine home games, the Giants are averaging 6.0 runs per contest while the opposition is plating 7.4 of their own. That works out to 13.4 runs per ballgame. In 544 plate appearances on the road, San Fran has a .131 ISO and a 75 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes park factors and creates a league-wide baseline for scoring efficiency of 100). Across 358 plate appearances in Oracle Park they have a .196 ISO with a 130 wRC+.
Highlighting the wRC+ metric, this means they create/score runs 25% less efficiently than league average on the road but 30% higher than league average in what has traditionally been a pitching friendly venue. Yes, their pitching has been HORRIBLE, but wouldn’t it be something if we can get ahead of a trend here?
It should also be noted that there is likely a heavily correlated cause and effect with the woeful pitching staff assembled this year by the Giants. However, where is the fun in that being the answer?!
Just how crazy is EMac?
There is also an off-the-wall theory that “juiced” balls are being utilized in Oracle Park this year as an homage to the general wildness of 2020. Think of this as the opposite approach used in Coors Field and Chase Field where the humidor storage of baseballs is employed to lessen the offensive effects of those ballparks.
RHP Johnny Cueto will be making just his 19th start in the last two plus seasons after dealing with a variety of injuries. Even at his apex during the mid-2010s he was not a high strikeout guy. Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Shoehi Ohtani are the obvious plays. This trio should also be considered as a counter-move against the Coors Field crowd. Jason Castro has been dealing with a sore neck, but he has light tower power. Finally Brian Goodwin, David Fletcher and Tommy LaStella are not household names, but they will be leverage plays. Heck, even 40-year old Albert Pujols is in play at this point… if you believe!
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions or want to discuss anything MLB DFS related.
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