MLB DFS Picks: Gerrit Cole & Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, September 13 (FREE)

MLB DFS: Friday, September 13th gives us a thirteen (spooky!) game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.  


I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. In addition to using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

[table id=1177 /]

DraftKings MLB

[table id=1178 /]

Yahoo MLB

[table id=1201 /]

Gerrit Cole

With the wealth of potential arms at the top, pitching is tricky. I believe Cole is the best of the bunch, particularly on FanDuel and DraftKings. Yahoo’s price is a difficult to make work, but he’s still a high ceiling arm, so if you can find a roster construction that works for you, go for it. We know how good of a starter Cole is. He has the highest strikeout projection on the slate. The Royals are aren’t an amazing strikeout spot, but they make up for that in general lack of talent. They don’t hit for much power and have been below average this season in terms of wRC+. There are enough cheap SP2 options to make the big price on Cole easier to digest.

Tyler Beede

Beede is in a great spot across all three sites. He’s been priced as if he’s not facing the Marlins in Oracle Park. In 2019, Beede has struck out 25% of righties. I expect Miami to roll out at least 6 right handed hitters. The Marlins also have the seventh highest strikeout rate, an 81 wRC+ and .131 ISO against righties this season. Absolutely brutal across the board. He’s a sneaky pay down option on FanDuel at $5700 and a perfect SP2 at $6300 on DraftKings. I can’t be upset with a $30 salary on Yahoo, either. This is a relatively safe spot for a second starter, and I expect to have an abundance of Beede.

Dylan Covey

Yeah, he has to be talked about. Covey is the flat minimum on all three sites. He gets a top-5 strikeout matchup in the Mariners. Now, I understand that Covey has been as bad as anyone can be. He can’t seem to miss any bats, and he’s striking out just 18% of left handed hitters. He’s has a bit more success against righties in terms of limiting power, but he’s still struggling to get any strikeouts. Minimum salary is minimum salary, though. Covey unlocks a ton of extra offense (or more shares of Cole), which is beneficial on a day with a Coors game, plus three other teams with 5.8+ run implied total. I’m biting the bullet and rostering Covey on the two pitcher sites.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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