With a four-game slate tomorrow, we can get back to a bit of a more normal approach with both our MLB DFS builds and how tonight’s column comes together. With eight teams we can get through two chalky options tonight and two sneaky ones in the afternoon in Stack Slants. Hopefully someone out there played all the home run options from last night because four of the five calls in the column connected, with only Gleyber Torres missing out. Overall the Yankees and Astros both went off as somewhat anticipated, although from some sources that were admittedly not among our favorites. My humble apologies to Kyle Higashioka.
Tomorrow’s slate has some interesting pitching and a bit more room to spread out. We won’t have to run players against our starters, which is always a plus. Two games just gets too limited. The other upside from eight teams is that we can run basically full stacks, and we have some pricing that should help us click things together in good fashion.
If you’re building by hand, thinking things through or making your own projections, it’s important to keep in mind that these games are being played at neutral sites. The Yankees and Rays are playing in San Diego, the Astros and A’s are in Los Angeles, the Marlins and Braves are in Houston, and the Dodgers and Padres are in Arlington’s Globe Life Field. Adjust expectations and park factors accordingly.
MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers
Home Run Ratings
Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna – 9.97
Houston Astros:Â George Springer – 8.34
Los Angeles Dodgers:Â Cody Bellinger – 6.87
Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar – 8.87
New York Yankees:Â Gary Sanchez – 10.07
Oakland Athletics: Marcus Semien – 2.49
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado – 12.80
Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe – 9.17
MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays
(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)
We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves – Braves – 3-7 – Ozuna – d’Arnaud – Albies – Duvall – Swanson
The unexpected Marlins are taking on the Braves in the Division Series because it’s 2020. The Marlins should be overmatched taking on the powerful Braves offense. Game 1 starter Sandy Alcantara threw 42.0 innings in 2020 and put up a 4.04 xFIP to his 3.00 ERA. His 22.7% career strikeout rate was higher than he’s put up in either of his two prior seasons, though with his swinging strike rate actually decreasing from 2019, it’s difficult to discern whether that is improvement or happenstance in a very small sample.
Ultimately it shouldn’t matter; these Braves are simply too good against right-handed pitching, and this isn’t a fearsome righty. The Braves’ active roster was third in baseball with a .221 ISO, and they put up a WRC+ 25% above average in the split. Collectively, the team had a .274/.354/.495 slash and were second in the league against righties with 86 home runs.
The Braves’ projected lineup is lethal from start to finish for MLB DFS. Things kick off with superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., who costs $5,500 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel. Acuna is worth the salary, in 202 plate appearances in 2020 he put up a .250/.406/.581 slash with a .331 ISO and a WRC+ 59% above average. He hit 13 home runs in 160 plate appearances in the split, on his way to a .364 ISO and a WRC+ 66% above average. Acuna is a monster in this spot and should be in most of your Braves stacks.
First baseman Freddie Freeman hits second and does it from the left side of the plate. The perennial All-Star had another killer year with a .360 ISO and a WRC+ 116% above average in his 200 plate appearances against right-handed pitching in 2020. For $10,900 total, the Acuna-Freeman duo on DraftKings makes for an interesting two-man stack but leaves behind a ton of additional upside and quality in this lineup.
Marcell Ozuna is every bit the star that the first two hitters are, and he comes at a $500 discount from Freeman’s price on DraftKings. On FanDuel he’s only slightly less expensive at $4,100 in a rare job well done by the blue site. The outfielder led the Braves with 18 home runs in 2020, putting up a .298 ISO and a WRC+ 79% above average. Ozuna joined Acuna and Freeman with on-base percentages above .400; as a trio the average OBP is an astounding .433. Ozuna was excellent against same-handed pitching, with a .246 ISO and a WRC+ 65% above average in the split in his 213 plate appearances in 2020.
Travis d’Arnaud is a $4,600 catcher on DraftKings who is likely to be fairly popular unless a real value option emerges on the slate. The backstop hit nine home runs in 2020 in just 184 plate appearances, a season after hitting 16 in 391 opportunities. He’s a fine option, but I’m willing to let the public ownership numbers dictate my overall exposures to him in this spot. If he’s unpopular, I’m happy to load up.
When he first returned from injury, second baseman Ozzie Albies was a bit sneaky and slightly underpriced. That’s not entirely the case anymore with his cost at $4,900 on DraftKings, though his $3,800 tag on FanDuel is arguably a bargain. Albies saw just 124 plate appearances in 2020 and still managed to hit six home runs and steal three bases. The switch-hitting infielder has a .188 ISO and a WRC+ 2% above average against right-handed pitching since the start of 2019. He’s a strong power-and-speed option; in 2018 Albies hit 24 home runs and stole 14 bases. He repeated the trick in 2019, hitting 24 homers and stealing 15 bags. Albies is always a top option at one of the weaker positions.
Adam Duvall and Dansby Swanson both had big years from the right side of the plate for the Braves. Duvall, the veteran outfielder, put up 16 home runs overall, 13 against right-handed pitching. In his 159 plate appearances, Duvall hit .224/.296/.517 with a .294 ISO and a WRC+ 11% above average, though he did strike out 25.8% of the time.
Swanson is an underrated option at shortstop. The righty had a .216 ISO with a WRC+ 33% above average against same-handed pitching in 2020. At just $4,100 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel, he comes at a pricing discount along with what I’m hoping is a popularity discount as well given some of the more high-profile shortstop options on the slate.
Outfielder Nick Markakis is the other lefty in this lineup. He had a short season with just 141 plate appearances, and he was just OK, with a .254/.312/.392 slash and one home run. Markakis had a .138 ISO and a WRC+ 11% below average. He’s inexpensive and likely to be unpopular, which are two of his best attributes. Third baseman Austin Riley is hitting ninth in the projected lineup and could be worth some attention with his power upside. Riley has hit 26 home runs in his 503 career plate appearances, 17 of them against righties. He lacks the on-base skills to function as a traditional wraparound to the top of the order play, but his power keeps him on the board in stacks and as a one-off.
Related MLB DFS Content
- Learn MLB DFS: DraftKings + FanDuel Primer
- MLB DFS Quick Hits: HRs, Stacks & Ownership Plays
- Top Stack Tool (PREMIUM)
- Awesemo’s Top Pitcher Tool (PREMIUM)
- The MLB Strategy Show Live Before Lock
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
The rubber meets the road for the Padres season in the NLDS matchup against the mighty Dodgers. With the Padres pitching in shambles after the injuries to Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger, starter Zach Davies will get the ball in Game 1. This one will take place at Globe Life Field in Arlington, the home of the Texas Rangers, where the roof will be an important detail. Arlington will also host the eventual World Series.
In 2020 Davies had a very good year, surprising at least me with a 2.73 ERA and a 22.8% strikeout rate. Of course, when we look at xFIP, which if you’ve been paying attention you already knew was coming, we see that Davies was at just 4.14 for the season, which is more in line with the pitcher he is. Davies was the beneficiary of a .243 BABIP against, getting a significant bump from luck and defense.
In looking at Davies’ profile, it seems clear that he made changes to his pitch mix and the mechanics of several pitches. Davies essentially took 200 rpm of spin off of his sinker and cutter and reduced his sinker volume from 52% to 42% while increasing his changeup usage from 32% to 42%. The changeup has been the primary source of swing and miss in Davies’ arsenal this season — 41 of his 63 strikeouts came on that pitch. The Dodgers lineup profiled as an above-average offense against the pitch in 2020. They hit a league-leading 91 home runs against right-handed pitching and put up a .259/.338/.498 team slash. Their .240 ISO was first in baseball in the split and their WRC+ 26% above average was second. Davies could be in trouble.
Everyone knows the Dodgers lineup pretty much beginning to end at this point. Former AL MVP Mookie Betts opens things at $5,700 on DraftKings and $4,400 on FanDuel. The outfielder hit 16 home runs in 246 plate appearances in 2020 and piled 10 stolen bases on top for good measure. He’s an MLB DFS dynamo with a true five-tool skillset. Betts’ WRC+ was 49% above average for the season and 81% average this year against right-handed pitching. He had a .354 ISO against same-handed pitchers as well, and honestly, if I need to sell you further on Betts, maybe we should both find something else to do right now.
Corey Seager is another top shortstop option on a slate loaded with them. The lefty has a hefty price at $5,200 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel, though he justified it in 2020 by hitting 15 home runs and putting up a .278 ISO and a WRC+ 52% above average. In the split, Seager had a .301 ISO and a WRC+ 66% above average while striking out just 15.3% of the time. He’s a dynamite option on this slate.
With right-handed third baseman Justin Turner and lefty power-hitting third or first base option Max Muncy following them in the order, there is plenty of ability for this lineup to generate a rally against any pitcher. Turner hit just four home runs in 2020 but still put up an excellent .307/.400/.460 slash and a WRC+ 40% above average. Muncy hit 12 home runs but was below the Mendoza line at just .192/.331/.389 in his 248 plate appearances this season. If we put the pair together, we get something like 1.33 quality hitters.
Lefty superstar Cody Bellinger sure didn’t hit like it in 2020. In his 243 plate appearances, Bellinger hit 12 home runs but had just a .239/.333/.455 slash. He did manage a .216 ISO and a WRC+ 14% above average, so it’s not like he was bad. He just wasn’t Bellinger as we expected him. Over the past three seasons coming into this year, Bellinger had hit 39, 25 and 47 home runs. His numbers in 2020 improve in the split, pulling him up to a .252 ISO and a WRC+ 29% above average. Bellinger should be in most Dodgers stacks. His appeal grows the less popular he is.
Will Smith, the catcher not the pitcher, is interesting if he’s under-owned, which is applicable to most DraftKings catchers who can hit a little. In 137 plate appearances in 2020, Smith muscled up and hit eight home runs, a year after hitting 15 in just 196 plate appearances. There is clearly power resident in the backstop’s bat, though extracting it is a bit of a dice roll.
Joc Pederson is one of my favorite bats to get to when no one else is, assuming he’s not facing a lefty anyway. In his career, Pederson has hit 130 home runs, 121 of them have come against righties. He has a .238/.349/.501 slash in the split, compared to just .191/.266/.310 against same-handed pitching. Pederson is a quality option for a home run ball and is firmly in play for Dodgers stacks and as a one-off at just $3,200 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel.
Chris Taylor and A.J. Pollock are in the final two spots in the projected lineup. Both players are quality, though only one is a former star. Pollock has proven 20-home-run/35-stolen-base upside in a full season, though he hasn’t flashed the speed since joining the Dodgers in 2019, putting up just a combined seven stolen bases across his 542 plate appearances, which would have been a career low as a combined stat. Pollock is an excellent option once again, and I’m hoping people forget about him late in this lineup.
Taylor offers multi-position eligibility and some savings on DraftKings. He put up a .222 ISO and a WRC+ 45% above average in his 154 plate appearances against righties this season, though he struck out 25.3% of the time in the split, lowering his overall upside when compared with some of his teammates.
HR Call: Freddie Freeman (Braves)
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more MLB DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo MLB home page. Just click HERE.