MLB Picks: Tuesday, September 17th provides a healthy 14 game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription. Â
For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. In addition to using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel MLB
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings MLB
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo MLB
[table id=1201 /]
Justin Verlander
There are times when I feel bad about recommending guys like Verlander because it feels like the easy way out. Then, I take a look at the Rangers stats against righties and realize that I have no choice. Texas’ active roster had the fifth highest strikeout rate in the league, and they back it up with a below average hitting profile. Obviously, everyone knows Verlander has big time strikeout stuff. I currently have Verlander projected for 10 strikeouts, which is two full strikeouts ahead of the next closest pitcher (Darvish). If you’re paying up for a starter, Verlander is the clear top option on both DraftKings and FanDuel. On Yahoo, I think it’s reasonable to look in a different direction, as Verlander is $15 more expensive than Darvish, who is $48.
Mitch Keller
It’s Keller SZN! Once again, this is all about the matchup. The Mariners rank just ahead of the Rangers in terms of strikeout rate, with slightly better wRC+ and ISO numbers. Obviously, Keller is a bit of a step back from Verlander, but he’s also priced in an advantageous way on both FanDuel and Yahoo. I still think he is one of the better mid-tier values on DraftKings, but the other sites have him significantly underpriced. I haven’t even touched on Keller’s numbers, which have been fantastic from a DFS perspective. He has a 28% strikeout rate against both hands. His xISO against lefties is .154, which is completely manageable from a power perspective. He won’t go deep into the game, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t pay off his price tag.
Other Options
If you’re looking for someone to pay down for to pair with Verlander, unfortunately, I think it’s Brett Anderson. He’s essentially the opposite of a good DFS play, in that he does not strike anyone out. My expectation is that he can go six innings. With some hit luck, Anderson can bring amazing value at just $5300. If that doesn’t work for you, I think you can pay a few more bucks for Martin Perez, which unlocks the White Sox matchup. Either way, you have two guys that can pair with the big price of Verlander.
