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MLB DFS Picks: Lance Lynn & Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, August 23 (FREE)

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Yahoo DFS baseball MLB picks like Lance Lynn for August 29 MLB DFS based on projections and ownership from the number 1 DFS player.

MLB DFS Picks: Friday, August 23rd leads us into a wall-to-wall sports weekend with a rousing 13 game “main” slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and MLB DFS baseball picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.

For Friday’s Yahoo Fantasy MLB strategy article click here

For Friday’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here


I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

NameFD$FDFD%
Jacob deGrom$1100044.039.3%
Shane Bieber$1070043.332.7%
Clayton Kershaw$1040041.514.0%
Luis Castillo$1030034.212.6%
Charlie Morton$950038.713.6%
Zack Greinke$920037.67.9%
Mike Minor$890033.215.2%
Merrill Kelly$850027.73.5%
Anibal Sanchez$830034.46.5%
J.A. Happ$820029.94.1%
Mike Foltynewicz$770032.75.0%
Drew Smyly$710024.72.9%
Eric Lauer$690026.41.9%
Mike Fiers$680025.81.2%
Jordan Zimmermann$670023.42.1%
Robert Dugger$660021.71.2%
Rick Porcello$650023.22.0%
Chase Anderson$640027.11.6%
Tyler Beede$640022.10.9%
Dylan Cease$630028.93.0%
Felix Hernandez$610019.80.6%
Jacob Waguespack$600018.30.2%
Jaime Barria$580014.80.3%
Steven Brault$570020.10.5%
Aaron Brooks$560019.90.3%
Randy Dobnak$550018.50.1%
Peter Lambert$550017.20.6%
Eric Skoglund$550014.60.3%

DraftKings MLB

NameDK$DKDK%
Shane Bieber$1220023.829.3%
Jacob deGrom$1160025.235.5%
Charlie Morton$1110020.812.2%
Clayton Kershaw$1080022.712.7%
Luis Castillo$1050018.511.3%
Mike Minor$1010018.113.6%
Zack Greinke$980020.47.2%
Mike Foltynewicz$940017.24.7%
J.A. Happ$920015.73.9%
Merrill Kelly$870014.83.3%
Dylan Cease$830015.02.9%
Anibal Sanchez$810018.86.0%
Eric Lauer$760013.81.9%
Chase Anderson$740014.11.6%
Tyler Beede$720010.90.9%
Robert Dugger$700010.71.2%
Drew Smyly$680012.92.8%
Rick Porcello$650012.32.0%
Jacob Waguespack$63008.30.2%
Eric Skoglund$60006.70.3%
Randy Dobnak$58009.10.2%
Mike Fiers$570013.21.2%
Jaime Barria$52006.70.3%
Felix Hernandez$50009.80.6%
Aaron Brooks$48009.80.3%
Jordan Zimmermann$480012.32.1%
Peter Lambert$45008.80.6%
Steven Brault$430010.10.5%

Yahoo MLB

NameY$YY%
Jacob deGrom$5627.0482.2%
Shane Bieber$5125.4498.1%
Clayton Kershaw$5023.9478.0%
Zack Greinke$5022.0439.1%
Charlie Morton$4822.2463.2%
Luis Castillo$4620.4443.7%
Mike Fiers$4114.7359.3%
Mike Foltynewicz$4118.9460.4%
J.A. Happ$3917.3444.0%
Anibal Sanchez$3820.6542.5%
Mike Minor$3820.3535.5%
Merrill Kelly$3716.9456.4%
Eric Lauer$3315.4467.6%
Dylan Cease$3116.8540.7%
Rick Porcello$3114.4465.9%
Tyler Beede$3012.6418.7%
Chase Anderson$3015.5516.6%
Jordan Zimmermann$3014.3476.9%
Steven Brault$2911.9411.1%
Drew Smyly$2914.6502.7%
Felix Hernandez$2711.5425.8%
Jacob Waguespack$269.7374.5%
Peter Lambert$2510.5419.9%
Randy Dobnak$259.9396.8%
Robert Dugger$2512.6502.3%
Eric Skoglund$258.3330.5%
Aaron Brooks$2511.1442.7%
Jaime Barria$258.3332.7%

Lance Lynn

Should I just copy the same text from every other pitcher that faced the White Sox? Lynn is the next starter in line to put a beating on Chicago. Outside of this being a hitter’s park, the matchup is fantastic. The White Sox active roster has the fourth highest strikeout rate in the league against righties. Lynn has mowed down 31% of righties over the past two seasons. His strikeout rate tumbles against lefties, but he’s also not allowing any power. Moncada being back in the lineup is a boost for the White Sox, but it’s not enough to offset this spot for Lynn.

Jose Berrios

Should I just copy the same text from every other pitcher that faced the Twins? Berrios is the next starter in line to put a beating on Detroit. The Tigers strikeout rate against righties this season: 27.9%! Couple that with a 73 wRC+ and you have the best spot on the whole slate. Berrios doesn’t have the same top end stuff of Lynn, but it’s hard to find a safer pitcher on the slate. He’s also cheaper than Lynn across the board. He’ll be popular, but Berrios is simply impossible to ignore. I would lean towards Berrios over Lynn in cash games because his floor is so high.

Vince Velasquez

Should I just copy the same text from every other pitcher that faced the Marlins? Velasquez is the next starter in line to put a beating on Miami. The Marlins are the slightly better version of the Tigers. Miami has a strikeout rate of 25.2% and a wRC+ of 78. Velasquez obviously has the strikeout stuff to go along with the matchup and park. His only struggle in his career has been with left handed power. This season, Marlins’ active roster lefties have a .149 ISO and 77 wRC+ against righties. Not exactly something Velasquez should worry about. He’s the clear top option in the mid tier.


Looking for more FREE MLB DFS Content? Check out this morning’s MLB Strategy show, where we went through each game and fantasy-relevant player on tonight’s slate!

Josh is the Director of Content for Awesemo.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections across all sports. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Awesemo's Premium Slack. You can contact Josh by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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