MLB DFS Picks: Friday, August 23rd leads us into a wall-to-wall sports weekend with a rousing 13 game “main” slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and MLB DFS baseball picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For Friday’s Yahoo Fantasy MLB strategy article click here
For Friday’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
[table id=1177 /]
[table id=1178 /]
[table id=1201 /]
Should I just copy the same text from every other pitcher that faced the White Sox? Lynn is the next starter in line to put a beating on Chicago. Outside of this being a hitter’s park, the matchup is fantastic. The White Sox active roster has the fourth highest strikeout rate in the league against righties. Lynn has mowed down 31% of righties over the past two seasons. His strikeout rate tumbles against lefties, but he’s also not allowing any power. Moncada being back in the lineup is a boost for the White Sox, but it’s not enough to offset this spot for Lynn.
Should I just copy the same text from every other pitcher that faced the Twins? Berrios is the next starter in line to put a beating on Detroit. The Tigers strikeout rate against righties this season: 27.9%! Couple that with a 73 wRC+ and you have the best spot on the whole slate. Berrios doesn’t have the same top end stuff of Lynn, but it’s hard to find a safer pitcher on the slate. He’s also cheaper than Lynn across the board. He’ll be popular, but Berrios is simply impossible to ignore. I would lean towards Berrios over Lynn in cash games because his floor is so high.
Should I just copy the same text from every other pitcher that faced the Marlins? Velasquez is the next starter in line to put a beating on Miami. The Marlins are the slightly better version of the Tigers. Miami has a strikeout rate of 25.2% and a wRC+ of 78. Velasquez obviously has the strikeout stuff to go along with the matchup and park. His only struggle in his career has been with left handed power. This season, Marlins’ active roster lefties have a .149 ISO and 77 wRC+ against righties. Not exactly something Velasquez should worry about. He’s the clear top option in the mid tier.
Looking for more FREE MLB DFS Content? Check out this morning’s MLB Strategy show, where we went through each game and fantasy-relevant player on tonight’s slate!