MLB DFS: Tuesday, August 13th gives us a full smorgasbord of options with all 30 teams in action for the “main” slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and MLB picks, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For Today’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
Out very own Adam Scherer has been beating the Boyd drum all season. Today, I’ll be aggressively hopping on the bandwagon. Let’s start on the Seattle side. The Mariners active roster has the highest strikeout in the league against lefties. Their performance has actually been solid, though. Those same Seattle bats have a 105 wRC+ against lefties. I’m significantly more interested in the strikeout upside. Boyd has been deadly in 2019. He’s struck out 30%+ of both lefties and righties. His only really issue has been righty power, something the Mariners are largely missing. Domingo Santana will be in a feast or famine spot. Tom Murphy has pop, but that’s literally it. Both guys project with 30%+ strikeout rates. Boyd is the fourth most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, sixth most expensive on DraftKings and ninth!!! on Yahoo. All of this makes him the best pitcher on the slate in my eyes.
First things first: Cole is not available on FanDuel. They are dropping this game from their slate. On DraftKings and Yahoo, Cole has a massive price tag. if anyone deserves it, it’s Cole. Among qualified starters, Cole has the highest strikeout rate in the entire league. We’re talking about the premier DFS pitcher in baseball. Oh, by the way, he gets to face the the team with the highest strikeout rate against righties. Unlike the Mariners, the White Sox have actually been bad, too. Their 81 wRC+ ranks 28th. I understand the price is difficult to reconcile, but Cole transcends price. On a massive slate, there are plenty of ways to find value bats to stack. Cole and Boyd are the only $10K pitchers I have my eye on.
More of a price play than anything else, I’m willing to take a flyer on Fried. On FanDuel, he’s a bit more expensive than I’d like, but I see no reason he can’t pay off that price tag. The real appeal for Fried is on DraftKings at $6700. The Mets have been slightly worse than average against lefties this season. Meanwhile, Fried has been someone who rarely gets blown up. Over the past two seasons, he has allowed a .085 xISO to lefties and a .120 xISO to righties. He’s not just allowing zero power, but he’s getting a ton of strikeouts against lefties. Now, the Mets are only projecting to have two lefties in the lineup, but it’s not as if Fried is incompetent against righties. The Boyd/Fried pairing is my favorite on DK.