MLB DFS Picks: Patrick Corbin & Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, September 23 (FREE)

MLB Picks: Monday, September 23rd has a five game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription. 

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I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. In addition to using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

DraftKings MLB

Yahoo MLB

Patrick Corbin

Corbin is pretty clearly the top overall arm on this abbreviated slate. The Phillies lineup is average at best, and Corbin should be pitching his normal outing. The DraftKings price is a bit hard to get to, but raw points matter on short slate. He had the highest likelihood by a wide margin of being the top-scoring pitcher. I find it really difficult to avoid that. I have him projected for a full strikeout more than the second-highest guy (Caleb Smith). Those two are the only guys with a strikeout projection over six. Sometimes, you just have to take the talent.

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Steven Matz

Matz gets to be the chalk play of the day thanks to his matchup with the Marlins. Miami actually doesn’t strikeout all that often against lefties, but they don’t really hit the ball either. Their active roster has an 87 wRC+ and .147 ISO this season, which is why I’m not worried about having a lot of Matz. He’s going to get a lineup full of righties, but that’s not enough to dissuade me. He’s the clear top value across FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo. If you’re playing cash, he’s a no-brainer.