MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

Welln that was a nice straightforward easy day of MLB DFS, wasn’t it? Between COVID cancellations, a rainout and several delays in key games, we had just about all we could handle up to and after lock. We’ll see what tomorrow brings; so far the Orioles and Marlins game has already been postponed. Commissioner Manfred said late on Monday night that the soonest the series would pick up would be on Wednesday. The weather doesn’t look as shaky, so we’ve got that going for us at least.

If you were on board with the Royals’ 14-run game today, you were probably sitting pretty in some GPP standings, although we were all looking way up at Awesemo himself across the top of FanDuel GPPs the last time I checked. With the Royals and Mets mashing home runs as we were seeing in models across the site, it was a great spot that really came through in style, while the Rays put up a monster 14-run total that got Mike Foltynewicz demoted.

The pitching, on the other hand, was a bit dicey with chalky Josh James going bust after drawing a lot of additional ownership from scrapped Aaron Civale and Dylan Cease plans. This was a boon to anyone who spread out pitching exposures. Tyler Glasnow, meanwhile, smoked his way through the Braves lineup for four innings, striking out nine hitters while giving up just a lone earned run.

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MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: n/a

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. – 13.59

Baltimore Orioles: n/a

Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez 14.44

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber – 15.48

Chicago White Sox: n/a

Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto – 6.20

Cleveland Indians: n/a

Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story – 8.13

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop – 8.09

Houston Astros: George Springer – 8.41

Kansas City Royals: Sal Perez – 10.88

Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton – 6.80

Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger – 9.00

Miami Marlins: n/a

Milwaukee Brewers: Keston Hiura – 12.62

Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson – 3.21

New York Mets: Yoenis Cespedes – 10.30

New York Yankees: n/a

Oakland Athletics: Khris Davis – 8.57

Philadelphia Phillies: n/a

Pittsburgh Pirates: Josh Bell – 10.05

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado – 11.93

San Francisco Giants: Pablo Sandoval – 6.12

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Lewis – 5.45

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt – 7.53

Tampa Bay Rays: Ji-man Choi – 9.67

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo – 12.27

Toronto Blue Jays: n/a

Washington Nationals: n/a

MLB DFS Picks: Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Chicago Cubs (5.3) at Cincinnati Reds (5.4) – Suggested Stack(s): Cubs 9-1-2-4-5

The more I poke at this one the more I’m starting to like the Cubs’ side of it for MLB DFS tomorrow. The top half of the lineup is currently killing it in my projections, and we already know about the quality in those five name-brand hitters. The strikeouts are a concern for Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber, but overall this lineup is drawing a great power metric in my home run model. In his 52 big league starts, Tyler Mahle has given up 47 home runs, good for a 1.62 career HR/9. I’ll have some Mahle because I think there’s strikeout potential in his arm, and it’s a reasonable enough play on a mostly ugly pitching slate, but I think the Cubs are the side of this one I want more of.

Ian Happ is a guy I never want to forget to work into some of my Cubs stacks. I mentioned him here the other day as someone I liked coming into the season. Happ has demonstrated an ability to make good contact and limit his soft hit percentage in his opportunities in the majors, a quality indicator for power upside, which is on display already with his two home runs. I like using him to wrap around to the top of this lineup and create differentiation. I’m willing to sacrifice a plate appearance to do it in the right spots. Willson Contreras is carrying the lowest of the top five hitters’ home run mark for me, but there’s plenty to love about his .214 ISO projection from Steamer, which would actually be significantly lower than the .261 we saw in 2019. He’s a fantastic option where you’re required to play a catcher on the days he’s not too popular, so keep an eye on ownership. The suggested stack includes Happ, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Schwarber and Contreras, but Baez is a fine replacement for any of the big name, and you should mix and match them at will.

St. Louis Cardinals (4.9) at Minnesota Twins (5.6) – Cardinals – 2-3-4-5 + hopefully O’Neill (order dependent)

I think a lot of people might be going to the wrong side of this one. The line seems high unless we see Carlos Martinez come out of this game early. He’s a guy who is able to limit home runs and has rally-killing stuff when he’s on, which is pushing the Twins’ usual gigantic power metrics down in my home run model.

On the other side, Homer Bailey is a tough nut to crack with his uptick in quality last year. He actually limited his HR/9 effectively last season after a disastrous 1.95 mark the year before, but he is still carrying ugly totals over his last 600 hitters faced in that department as you heard EMac and I discuss on the Early Bird podcast. When he was fully healthy half a decade ago, he was able to mostly limit the long ball but struggled with putting runners on. Home runs are a bit of a noisy statistic for pitchers anyway, and I’m not sure which version of the power-yielding Bailey we’ll get, but I’m confident he’s going to allow some opportunity for the Cardinals here.

The Cardinals’ power is mostly built around the two slugging Pauls in the middle: Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong. Both come in at quality projections for mid-range prices that MLB DFS owners should be jumping on. DeJong generated a ton of hard contact through 2019, hitting a career-high 30 home runs, and Steamer has him projected for around a .212 ISO. He’s pulling a good-not-great rating in my home run model, but the quality of the spot is showing through here more than the power. Matt Carpenter is still getting an ISO projection over .200 for the season and should be considered in the middle of this lineup as well. Carpenter fell apart last season with a .226/.334/.392 slash but has been an immensely reliable hitter throughout his career with WRC+ around 30% above league average the six seasons prior. Carpenter seems to have gotten into bad habits and suffered for it, with his strikeout rate going up, his walk rate coming down and more soft contact than he had in years. These are ultimately correctable parts of a hitter’s game and this is a hitter I expect to bounce back in general.

The suggested stack includes Tommy Edman, Goldschmidt, DeJong and Carpenter. The final spot depends on the batting order and whether you can connect Tyler O’Neill from a reasonably well-correlated spot. If not, feel free to drop Wong in there or use Yadier Molina at catcher to fill out the full stack. The main core here also makes a high-quality three-man stack.

Arizona Diamondbacks (4.5) at Texas Rangers (4.6) – Rangers 2 or 3 + 4-5-6-7

Roof open or closed, I think this is a spot we can get on some Rangers bats against Merrill Kelly. Kelly was a 30-year-old rookie last year and is priced up on DraftKings in this spot. I’m curious to see what will happen with him here. I’m getting solid power numbers for the Rangers against him, and despite the availability of strikeouts in this lineup, I’m not sure Kelly is the guy to exploit them. His propensity for allowing baserunners draws the eye, and if we can get some table-setters going in front of Joey Gallo, we could see a big number quick. Gallo is pulling a big home run number in my model again and looks great here.

I like Willie Calhoun a lot from late in this lineup. Calhoun puts the ball in play a ton and is great at limiting his strikeouts. He is also inexpensive and not that popular, both of which will change as the season rolls on. Calhoun posted a .256 ISO and just a 15.7% strikeout rate over 337 rookie plate appearances last year after coming up as a top hitting prospect. There’s a ton to love here for his $2,400 price tag on FanDuel, and he’s perfectly playable for the money on DraftKings as well. Rougned Odor and Todd Frazier are both coming into the season with ISO projections over .200 from Steamer and should have a good shot at driving in some runs in the middle of the order. I expect lower ownership on that pair than some of these others, so we could have a good opportunity in the back half of the lineup. It’s definitely a spot I want to dig into on the stack tool as we get closer to lock. The suggested stack includes your choices of Elvis Andrus or Danny Santana along with Gallo, Odor, Frazier and Calhoun.

HR Call: Keston Hiura (Brewers)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.