MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

Midway through the Thursday night MLB DFS slate, we have action galore with multiple two-home-run games from lower-owned players, Yankees chalk hitting but then smashing into a rain delay and a gigantic game from Shane Bieber. Max Fried picked up a nice start as well, and with a lot of lineups riding on Dylan Bundy and Dinelson Lamet late, it’s still anyone’s game.

If you managed to not notice before the game started, the Angels will be without all-universe outfielder Mike Trout for the foreseeable future after the team placed him on the paternity list. This was an expected circumstance for Trout — he and his wife are due for their first child imminently — but this was slightly earlier than anticipated, and it’s anyone’s guess when he’ll be back. Additional details emerging around the situation with the Phillies and Marlins are suggesting that we could see more fluid scheduling through the weekend and beyond.

The final big piece of news has potential impact for MLB DFS. The league and the MLBPA have agreed that starting Aug. 1 scheduled double-headers will be comprised of seven-inning games. This is objectively terrible, but the league has assured everyone it is just for 2020 and only intended to reduce the amount of time people have to spend in stadiums. Changing the game fundamentally on the field is doing absolutely nothing to protect players out in the world or ensure that teams are protected from infection. Of course, that would require actual effort on MLB’s part and a desire to act from a place of player safety. Instead the league has opted to use 2020 as its laboratory for all the terrible, unnecessary things they want to do to distort the on-field product and destroy the game.

Half-off, anyone?

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MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Starling Marte – 5.07

Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna – 9.11

Baltimore Orioles: Renato Nunez – 6.76

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers – 13.75

Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez – 10.40

Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu – 11.17

Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez – 6.43

Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez – 7.16

Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story – 10.70

Detroit Tigers: C.J. Cron – 7.12

Houston Astros: Carlos Correa – 6.00

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler – 8.94

Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani – 10.57

Los Angeles Dodgers: Joc Pederson – 6.56

Miami Marlins: n/a

Milwaukee Brewers: n/a

Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson – 5.51

New York Mets: Yoenis Cespedes – 11.99

New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton – 10.86

Oakland Athletics: Khris Davis – 11.84

Philadelphia Phillies: n/a

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jose Osuna – 6.20

San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. – 8.26

San Francisco Giants: Wilmer Flores – 5.93

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager – 5.43

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Ji-Man Choi – 24.46

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo – 8.76

Toronto Blue Jays: n/a

Washington Nationals: n/a

MLB DFS Picks: Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Oakland Athletics (5.4) at Seattle Mariners (3.9) – Suggested Stack: Athletics 2-3-4-6-7

Is it me or does it seem like we haven’t been able to use the A’s for a few days straight on main slates? They land back in our lives on Friday night with a solid implied team total and what looks like a great pitching matchup. Taijuan Walker is back with the Mariners after missing most of the last two seasons, working his way back from injury. Walker didn’t make it out of the fourth inning in his first start and I like his chances for another early exit here. The Athletics can throw a loaded lineup at a shaky pitcher like this.

Sluggers Matt Olson and Khris Davis are mainstays in my Oakland stacks with the power they bring to every plate appearance. Olson gets the benefit of being on the plus side of the lefty-righty matchup, but he handles both sides well as we’ve already seen this season. The power metric looks strong in my home run model, as do my early projections. Davis is running neck and neck in the power department. The right-handed home run monster should be over his nagging wrist injury that sapped his power in 2019, and his slow start over the first week could have MLB DFS owners looking in different directions. I would love him to be low-owned here. All he has to do is get into one, or better, two.

If this team turns out to be very popular, you can get away from it by looking toward names like Stephen Piscotty and Sean Murphy at the bottom of the lineup. I expect them to be, at worst, in the mid-range of ownership, though that means bats like Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien can still be worked in here. Ramon Laureano has plenty of power and speed to burn as well. He’s a multi-category fantasy contributor who people don’t flock to. Take advantage. The suggested stack here includes Laureano, Chapman, Olson, Davis and Piscotty.

Bonus Stack: Texas Rangers – 3-7

I am throwing in a very quick bonus stack since I just saw that EMac also covered the A’s in his excellent Spotlight Hitters write-up. I like the middle of the Rangers lineup here. They profile well from a power perspective, and the positioning and popularity should be favorable here. The Rangers are carrying a low implied team total playing this one in San Francisco’s Oracle Park, but I think they can make it work and put up a sneaky game against Logan Webb, who is going to give them plenty of opportunity to do so.

Joey Gallo can hit one out against anyone on the planet. I like the idea of grabbing Rougned Odor if he’s hitting third, as he is in the currently projected lineup, and then building down toward less popular Rangers bats like Todd Frazier, Willie Calhoun and Elvis Andrus.

Tampa Bay Rays (5.8) at Baltimore Orioles (3.9): Suggested Stack – Rays – 1-2-3-4-6

The Rays are almost definitely going to be popular tomorrow. Between carrying one of the highest run totals on the slate and playing this game in what has looked like homer-happy Baltimore against a gas can like Alex Cobb, they are an absolute smash spot. The power metrics for these guys are off the charts today. We saw similar against Cobb last week against the Red Sox, and he actually danced his way through the start effectively, striking out six in his 5.1 innings. I don’t expect him to repeat the trick.

First baseman Ji-Man Choi is a must in a spot like this with the way his big lefty bat profiles against Cobb. Playing straight down from Choi would be the move if they somehow aren’t the popular selection tomorrow. Brandon Lowe is another left-handed stick that you can plug in from the two-spot in this lineup, and Yandy Diaz is quality power at third base for only $2,800 on FanDuel. Japanese league star free agent signing Yoshi Tsutsugo should be in the lineup again. We’ve touched on him in this space once already this season, and he is a strong home run candidate in the middle of this lineup as well.

The suggested stack begins with Choi and includes Lowe, Diaz, Tsutsugo and Hunter Renfroe, though if they are popular, I would look to someone like Kevin Kiermaier for further diversification and maybe Mike Zunino for a dice roll on some low-owned power.

Cincinnati Reds (5.0) at Detroit Tigers (4.1): Suggested Stack: Reds – 3-7

The Reds might go a bit under-appreciated tomorrow. Their starting pitcher Luis Castillo is in a great spot and should be owned, but I think his supporting bats are strongly in play here as well. Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull isn’t going to strike fear into the hearts of hitters with his arsenal. He doesn’t yield a tremendous amount of home runs, but there should be a ton of opportunity for Reds hitters to create runs even if the ball stays in the yard.

Mike Moustakas was in the lineup for tonight prior to the game’s postponement, so we can expect him here again tomorrow, and he is my first building block. Moustakas and Eugenio Suarez can go deep against pretty much anyone. Moustakas limits his strikeouts and has grown gradually into a more patient hitter, while Suarez is more of a free swinger with his high strikeout rate. When either makes contact the ball goes a long way, though. I want them in my stack along with multi-faceted table setters like Shogo Akiyama, Jesse Winker and Joey Votto if they are hitting above them. If you want to build in the opposite direction, there are good options at the bottom of the order with the return of Nick Senzel, and Nicholas Castellanos is probably too cheap in this lineup at just $3,300 on FanDuel. All 34 of Tucker Barnhart‘s career home runs have come on this side of his platoon split. He could provide important differentiation or a cheap catcher play from late in the lineup or as a wrap-around option.

The suggested stack includes Suarez, Moustakas, Castellanos, Winker and Senzel.

HR Call: Ji-Man Choi (Tampa Bay Rays)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.