MLB DFS Quick Hits: HRs, Stacks and Ownership Plays DraftKings + FanDuel | August 5

With several of the big pieces of my lineups and a lot of the quality pitching options coming through, I was hoping for a bit of a turnaround type of night in MLB DFS when I checked scores. But we’re coming up a bit short on getting that one lineup to really shake loose for that next-level point total. It looks like we have several site logos among the top scorers in GPPs across the industry again, however, so that’s a big plus.

Tomorrow’s action features a two-game slate for the early games of the two double-headers, which will each be just seven innings long. FanDuel is ignoring both of those games but starting a separate two-game slate with the afternoon’s full games, because they realize seven-inning baseball games are a terrible idea. The day continues with 10-game main slates on both sites that both exclude the second games of both double headers.

With some interesting-looking pitching and some very juicy looking spots for bats this should be another fun slate. We also have the FanDuel debut of a hot-shot young rookie that you might have heard me rave about on the Early Bird Podcast with EMac. He’s in one of the stacks you’ll find below. I think you’ll be able to figure out who it is.


MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Starling Marte – 9.40

Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna – 5.54

Baltimore Orioles: n/a

Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez – 7.86

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber – 14.75

Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada – 6.55

Cincinnati Reds: Mike Moustakas – 5.40

Cleveland Indians: Francisco Lindor – 7.69

Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon – 6.73

Detroit Tigers: n/a

Houston Astros: Alex Bregman – 10.23

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler – 12.38

Los Angeles Angels: Jo Adell – 7.06

Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger – 12.21

Miami Marlins: n/a

Milwaukee Brewers: Keston Hiura – 7.33

Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz – 13.31

New York Mets: Michael Conforto – 6.59

New York Yankees: n/a

Oakland Athletics: Khris Davis – 8.26

Philadelphia Phillies: n/a

Pittsburgh Pirates: Josh Bell – 6.83

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado – 8.75

San Francisco Giants: Evan Longoria – 5.37

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager – 8.30

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows – 7.16

Texas Rangers: Todd Frazier – 5.71

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk – 7.12

Washington Nationals: Trea Turner – 7.48

MLB DFS Picks: Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Los Angeles Angels (5.1) at Seattle Mariners (4.1) – Angels – 2-3-4-5-7

It’s Jo Adell, the guy from the introduction you probably skip over. That’s the big rookie making his FanDuel debut. He was available as an option on DraftKings on the Tuesday slate and is already priced up to $3,000 for Wednesday. On FanDuel he’s just $2,100 and is going to be a mainstay in my Angels stacks. I’m very curious to see how much of the MLB DFS world is on him tomorrow, and I’m hoping he remains a bit under the radar for a day or two so we can take advantage and get in early like with a Luis Robert. Adell has plus-plus power in his right-handed bat and is a star in waiting.

The Angels are taking on Marco Gonzales here. Gonzales has shown flashes here and there early in his career, but he’s far more frequently mediocre-to-bad. Gonzales simply doesn’t strike enough hitters out and yields a ton of medium contact. He is somewhat able to limit the home run against right-handed hitters, which may just be a statistical anomaly. For his career he carries just a 1.01 HR/9 against the opposite hand and a 1.23 against lefties. I like both sides of the plate to get to him here.

The Angels pack a quartet of big righty bats with the addition of Adell. If I can get to a stack with Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and the rookie, I’ll do it early and often in my constructions. Assuming Justin Upton is back in the lineup, I like him as a popular approach to this team, if you don’t mind filling the entire outfield. I don’t like a ton of the other bats in this lineup on most nights, but I’ll give them a pass here. Tommy La Stella and Jason Castro would be in play given the pitcher’s reverse splits for power, depending on their lineup status, and aging Albert Pujols showed us he still has a pulse tonight, while inching one step closer to Willie Mays on the all-time home run list.

The suggested stack includes: Trout – Rendon – Upton – Pujols – Adell


Related MLB DFS Content


Toronto Blue Jays (4.5) at Atlanta Braves (4.9) – Blue Jays – 1-2-4-5-6

This one might be more suitable for tomorrow’s column that looks at some different angles into the slate, but the Blue Jays matchup against Sean Newcomb has started to look like a good spot for the bats to me the more I’ve looked it over. Things could change when we see how Awesemo feels about them tomorrow, so keep an eye on the top stacks tool and the projections.

The Blue Jays aren’t carrying an exceptional implied run total, and they’ve been cold to start the season, which might make them an unpopular option tomorrow. The quality in the top of the lineup remains, and we can look to the sons of former ballplayers as almost a full stack on their own. Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. all have famous baseball playing fathers. Vladimir Guerrero and Craig Biggio are in the Hall of Fame, while Dante Bichette had an excellent career in the majors and Lourdes Gurriel Sr. played in Cuba for 20 years, winning Olympic gold and gold in every other possible baseball tournament in that time.

Guerrero Jr. came in with gigantic expectations and is growing into his game after putting up just 15 home runs as a rookie, which once upon a time was a great total from a kid making his debut in the Show. Guerrero is a must in stacks against weak lefties, and Newcomb definitely qualifies as that. After spending most of 2019 in the bullpen, Newcomb looks headed back there again unless things change dramatically for him tomorrow. With Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk joining the second-generation players early in the lineup, this Blue Jays team has some power to burn with four straight hitters projected above a .200 ISO. Biggio and Bichette did a good job getting on base in front of that group through last year. Their struggles early have contributed to the Blue Jays’ early lack of scoring, with neither getting on base at even a .300 clip thus far in 2020. That should change tomorrow; Newcomb simply yields too much opportunity.

The suggested stack includes: Bichette – Biggio – Gurriel – Guerrero – Grichuk

HR Call: George Springer (Astros)


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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