MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

It is still a bit early for much of an MLB DFS recap for Saturday night’s main slate action, but it’s at least fair to say the Angels need to get things in gear in a hurry for some of us. With an early 12:35 start on FanDuel and a 1:05 afternoon main slate on DraftKings tomorrow, we’re just going to jump right into things. The slate splits strangely between the sites. Both have an eight-game main slate, FanDuel includes the Orioles-Nationals game but leaves out the Braves-Phillies game that the later DraftKings slate includes.

Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: n/a

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman – 13.35

Baltimore Orioles: Renato Nunez – 6.64

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers – 7.66

Chicago Cubs: n/a

Chicago White Sox: n/a

Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto – 4.54

Cleveland Indians: n/a

Colorado Rockies: n/a

Detroit Tigers: C.J. Cron – 8.23

Houston Astros: n/a

Kansas City Royals: Ryan O’Hearn – 6.12

Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani – 6.48

Los Angeles Dodgers: n/a

Miami Marlins: Corey Dickerson – 4.49

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich – 6.73

Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz – 15.67

New York Mets: Pete Alonso – 11.41

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge – 6.47

Oakland Athletics: n/a

Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper – 20.40

Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco – 8.77

San Diego Padres: n/a

San Francisco Giants: n/a

Seattle Mariners: n/a

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Hunter Renfroe – 8.30

Texas Rangers: Todd Frazier – 10.06

Toronto Blue Jays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – 12.46

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto – 12.82

Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals (FanDuel only) – 1-4 – Turner – Eaton – Castro – Soto

The Nationals are taking on the Orioles at home tomorrow in the early game, and they look to be in a terrific spot with Asher Wojciechowski on the hill for Baltimore. The right-hander hasn’t had much success at the major league level and doesn’t offer much hope for upside tomorrow on the pitching end of things. In his 139 career innings as a starter, Wojciechowski has allowed 33 home runs (2.14 HR/9) and has a career 5.34 xFIP while striking out just 21.9% of hitters. This is not a good pitcher.

The Nationals offer a lot of quality with Juan Soto back in the middle of this lineup. The dynamic left-handed bat is a must in this stack. Soto has a career .289/.418/.559 slash with a WRC+ 53% above league average for his career, while hitting 43 of his 56 career home runs in the split. With three hitters ahead of him in the projected lineup who all do an effective job getting on base, Soto could see tremendous opportunity to drive in runs tomorrow.

The top six hitters in the Nationals lineup are all projected for strikeout percentages in the teens to the league-average 20% that Asdrubal Cabrera carries. This is a lineup of relatively discerning hitters. Trea Turner has been one home run shy of 20/35 (home run/stolen base) seasons each of the last two years. He offers an enticing mix of power and speed atop this lineup and fills shortstop well on both sites. Adam Eaton is a step slower than he once was, but he has maintained a WRC+ well above league average each of the last six years and carries a .367 career on-base percentage. The pair makes an excellent combination above Soto. Starlin Castro had a down year with the Marlins last season but has responded gamely to his better opportunity with the Nationals so far in 2020. The second baseman has a slash of .361/.378/.500 on the young season and is another key piece at the top of the Nationals lineup.

Choosing between Howie Kendrick and Cabrera going down lineup here would likely be a batting order- and ownership-dictated decision. I would be getting to shares of both in multiple Nationals lineups. For his career, Cabrera has gotten more of his power and RBI production on this side of his split, which would lean me in his direction for one lineup. I like choosing one of the other and including Eric Thames in some builds here as well, though. Thames is basically an all-or-nothing home run hitter with his 30% strikeout rates coming as reliably as his .258 ISO. Each of the three offers opportunities to fill out this Nationals full stack with some differentiated plays.

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals – Twins – 1-2-3-4-7 – Kepler – Polanco – Cruz – Rosario – Sano

The Twins look to be in a good spot, drawing one of the slate’s higher early implied run totals here with a 5.2 that I expect to push higher against young starter Brady Singer. Singer has gone five innings in each of his three starts and has seven and eight strikeout games on his ledger in that span. However, he has also given up two home runs in each of his last two starts. This looks like a vulnerable pitcher that the homer-happy Twins lineup can exploit. Singer has a decent minor league track record but had never pitched above AA prior to this season. Consistency is a lot to ask this early.

The Twins record-setting 2019 is in the books, but they haven’t let up much, ranking fourth so far in 2020 with 22 home runs. They look excellent in my home run model tomorrow, with Nelson Cruz leading the way. With four players carrying a home run mark over 10 in my model, this is a team I am definitely going to keep an eye on in Awesemo’s top stacks tool tomorrow. I expect them to be high-ranked, but I think the MLB DFS public will be on them as well, so we may have to be careful about getting different with constructions. In addition to Cruz, the obvious names in this lineup are shortstop Jorge Polanco and outfielder Max Kepler, who should be hitting in the two spots in front of Cruz’ big bat. Eddie Rosario has 94 of his 109 career home runs against right-handed pitching and draws a great spot here against a weak righty.

Luis Arraez isn’t a masher in this lineup by any means, but he is almost always going to put the ball in play with his excellent hit tool and ridiculous patience at the plate. Over his 408 career plate appearances in the majors, Arraez has struck out just 7.8% of the time, and that rate holds up over 1,000 or so plate appearances in the minors. He simply doesn’t drive the ball, which limits the overall fantasy production, but Arraez is a player who you can work into lineups for differentiation. Mitch Garver had what may have been his career season last year, but he’s fine as a catcher play if you want to make it. I expect him to be popular, however, and I’d rather get to the ridiculous power of Miguel Sano or the quality wrap-around plays that we can find in Marwin Gonzalez and Byron Buxton here. Keep an eye on how all of the ownership and batting order jockeying shakes out before making these decisions.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (DraftKings only) – Phillies – 1-2-3-5-7 – McCutchen – Hoskins – Harper – Gregorius – Bruce

(NOTE: It is important to be aware that this is a seven-inning game. There is no change to the posted scoring system, so this is something of an off-beat approach to this slate that probably belongs more in tomorrow’s column. We are limiting opportunity at the back end of the lineup significantly by cutting two innings off of the game, so the late-lineup plays become less advisable here. I still think there’s enough upside to leave the suggestion, however.)

The Braves appear to be starting Huascar Ynoa in the first game tomorrow, though I’m not sure I know why. Meat for the grinder, I suppose. In 72 AAA innings last season, Ynoa posted a 5.52 FIP and a 1.73 HR/9. This is a pitcher that we can target with some of those big Phillies bats on DraftKings. The top four hitters in the Phillies projected lineup have an average ISO projection of .244 in Steamer season-long. Of the four, Bryce Harper is pulling both the largest projection and the highest mark in my home run model at 20.40, though Andrew McCutchen and Rhys Hoskins aren’t far behind with both over 17. J.T. Realmuto, Didi Gregorius and Jay Bruce are all well over 10 on that scale as well. This team is projecting for power for days against this starter. The Atlanta bullpen is one of the better in the league so far in 2020, but they’ve also been relatively overworked. If Atlanta is truly throwing a starter to the wolves here, we could see him take some extra lumps in the name of getting them some rest. I’m curious to see what the seven-inning game does to the overall popularity of Phillies bats in this one.

There’s not a bat in the projected Phillies lineup that I wouldn’t roster at least a little of in this spot. Projected ninth hitter, 24-year-old left-handed outfielder Adam Haseley, has a career WRC+ well over league average through his time in the minors and offers an intriguing potentially low-owned wrap-around at just $2,900 on DraftKings if this lineup is seeing extreme popularity. Scott Kingery also offers under-appreciated MLB DFS quality from late in this lineup. Did you know that the second baseman hit 19 home runs with a .216 ISO in his 500 plate appearances in 2019? He strikes out far too frequently and he benefited from a .337 BABIP overall, but he also stole 15 bases and is always low-owned at a premium position. For just $3,300 on DraftKings, you can sign me up for some shares despite Kingery getting more of his quality on the other side of his splits.

HR Call: Max Kepler (Twins)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.