MLB DFS Quick Hits: HRs, Stacks and Ownership Plays DraftKings + FanDuel | August 15

Well that wasn’t the right slate of MLB DFS action to sit out. If you watched Live Before Lock (which you always should, what else are you doing while you crunch your lineups?) you heard me mention I was just playing one lineup to avoid melting down the stream but just to have something going. Turns out this was a slate we would have been all over with the Yankees and Indians both going off for 10, the Astros with 11 already in the fifth, Lance Lynn putting up a complete-game, 52-point performance, just about everything we discussed on the show hit, and hit hard. And it was a night where it seems like FanDuel is giving back money based on their technical difficulties before lock. Sometimes it’s the ones you don’t play that get you.

Tomorrow’s split slate looks solid. We’re covering both the Early and Main with home run picks and focusing in on just the Main for the stack picks. We’ve got plenty of high-end arms going again, so pitching options are abundant across the two slates and there are great choices at each salary tier. Getting to good bats that aren’t breaking the bank might be a critical part of tomorrow’s slate. We’ll look for some of the weird angles and maybe dig up a good salary value play tomorrow afternoon in Stack Slants, for now we’ll focus into two high-end likely to succeed options.


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MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun – 8.08

Atlanta Braves: Adam Duvall – 10.49

Baltimore Orioles: Renato Nunez – 5.43

Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez – 11.20

Chicago Cubs: n/a

Chicago White Sox: n/a

Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez – 8.15

Cleveland Indians: Francisco Lindor – 6.39

Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado – 9.84

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop – 8.14

Houston Astros: George Springer – 14.18

Kansas City Royals: n/a

Los Angeles Angels: Shoehei Ohtani – 6.47

Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Turner – 11.04

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar – 6.23

Milwaukee Brewers: n/a

Minnesota Twins: n/a

New York Mets: Pete Alonso – 11.27

New York Yankees: Gleyber Torres – 14.31

Oakland Athletics: Matt Chapman – 10.08

Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins – 10.97

Pittsburgh Pirates: Starling Marte – 7.07

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado – 13.14

San Francisco Giants: Mike Yastrzemski – 3.47 (same matchup vs. Montas)

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager – 9.41

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Ji-man Choi – 8.16

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo – 13.78

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk – 6.44

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto – 13.05

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles – 9-1-2-3-4 – Victor RoblesTrea TurnerAdam EatonAsdrubal Cabrera – Juan Soto

or 9-1-2-4-6 – Victor Robles – Trea Turner – Adam Eaton – Juan Soto – Eric Thames

I feel like I’ve been picking on poor Asher Wojciechowski all season so far and, since that’s not likely to stop, I decided to at least copy/paste his name here so it was spelled properly. Apparently there’s an “i” in the middle there, who knew? Anyway, there’s an “i” in Wojciechowski but there’s not one in “team” and this pitcher isn’t on the team you want to get to from this game. The Nationals look like they’re in a prime spot taking on this gas can and they’re pulling one of the higher early implied team totals. Through 174.2 major league innings the pitcher has a 5.22 xFIP and a 1.85 HR/9. This is someone to target with bats. Lefty sluggers strike out less against him and have extracted a 2.03 HR/9 to this point in his career.

Juan Soto is a major lefty slugger hitting in the middle of this lineup. I expect him to be popular but it really doesn’t matter, this is an absolutely killer spot for Soto. We’ve talked about the talented outfielder in this space a few times already and covered some of what he’s done in traditional and advanced metrics so far in his young career. Looking into statcast data, we can see that in 2019 he was in the 94th percentile in MLB in exit velocity, a stat that he’s increased by an average 3.7 miles per hour over his very limited 25 batted-ball events so far in 2020. His 90th percentile hard hit rate and 87th percentile barrels rate are both indicators of a hitter who makes the consistently quality hard contact that we see borne out in the stat lines.

We went through the excellent stack that comes naturally at the top of this lineup, working down from star shortstop Trea Turner, who is simply too cheap at $3,400 on FanDuel tomorrow, and adding the consistent quality of Adam Eaton, Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera and Howie Kendrick in some order. Preferably we run this one a few times and get to various combinations of these hitters. They all get on base with regularity and can score fantasy points by setting the table for hitters behind them or driving in runs on their own, each of the five hitters is projected for a season-long WRC+ at or well above league average (technically Cabrera is 99% of league average). Eric Thames is likely to be hitting on the back-end of this stack again, he remains a threat to go deep in any game, against a bad pitcher like this the chances only go up. The $2,200 price tag on FanDuel is a bargain for the power upside at a corner spot.

I get consistently good power marks on Kurt Suzuki as a catcher in this stack and he seems to go under-owned on most MLB DFS slates. I think even in my own lineups. The same holds true for tomorrow’s slate with the catcher pulling down both a good projection and a higher than average home run mark for me early on. Suzuki is very good at limiting strikeouts and quietly carried a .264/.324/.486 slash with 17  home runs and a .221 ISO over just 309 plate appearances in 2019 and makes for an excellent catcher option if he’s not getting attention on DraftKings at $3,800.

Victor Robles is another young outfielder on this team who is going to be a fantasy star soon enough. In his first real action last season Robles hit 17 home runs and stole 28 bases in his 617 plate appearances. The sophomore needs to learn more patience at the plate and star to draw some walks so he can hit atop the lineup, he’s currently carrying a .328 career on-base percentage but has shown significantly more ability in that department in the minors, which should translate as he grows in the league. For now, he makes an excellent low-owned wraparound option for MLB DFS purposes and i love including him in this Nationals stack if we can make it work with all the other great options.


Related MLB DFS Content


San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Padres – 1-3-4-6-8 – Fernando Tatis Jr. – Manny Machado – Tommy PhamWil MyersFrancisco Mejia

The Padres look to be in an excellent MLB DFS spot against lefty Alex Young. The 26-year-old lefty has 93 major league innings under his belt, few of them pretty. 83 of them came in his 15 starts in 2019, through which he posted a  He carries a 4.81 FIP, though the 4.66 xFIP is at least nice to see. The 14 home runs allowed in those 83 innings, less so. Young works consistently in the high-80s with a slider-fastball combination that can best be described as thrown. This is another pitcher that it makes sense to target with some bats.

The Padres are a team we haven’t hit on too frequently in this space, but I really like the spot and the lineup offers upside on a regular basis. Manny Machado is a known star-level talent who has been raking to start 2020. At just $3,600 on FanDuel and $4,600 on DraftKings he’s an obvious starting point for this stack and basically mandatory in Padres constructions. Fernando Tatis Jr. at the top of this lineup is a player whose talent level may even exceed that of Machado, his star is on the rise and he wasted no time making himself known to MLB DFS players in 2019. In 322 plate appearances the shortstop hit 22 home runs and stole 16 bases with a .272 ISO and a WRC+ 50% above league average. This is a killer shortstop every day of the week and twice… when there’s a double-header, I guess? I’m bad at cliches.

Tommy Pham is another excellent player on this team. While not on the level of his two infielder teammates, Pham offers a fantastic blend of power and speed for MLB DFS purposes. Over his past three seasons Pham has stolen 25 bases twice – 15 the other time – and hit 21 home runs twice – 23 the other time – this is a great option at just $2,900 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings. Eric Hosmer isn’t a name anyone likes to roster in fantasy baseball and he’s on the bad side of his splits. I can make a case for the first baseman in general, the former super-duper prospect never reached his lofty expectations in full; but let me ask you, how many times have you hit more than 17 home runs in a season? Hosmer’s done it seven times. Including three seasons over 20, two of which went over 25. Before 2019, he was even good for a few stolen bases every season, which can be invaluable at a corner spot. The career splits that show a clear advantage for Hosmer on the other side of his splits could push his ownership down even if this stack is highly owned. In a game where we expect the starter to get lit up, Hosmer could see multiple at-bats on the better side of his split, while still not being completely inept against lefties. At just $3,000 on FanDuel and, even better, at $3,300 on DraftKings, I’m willing to roll the dice on him if he’s in the lineup.

I do not apply that same standard to Trent Grisham in a same-handed matchup yet, I actually expect he might sit tomorrow. We can look later in the lineup for some lower-owned options here still. Wil Myers is a three-true-outcomes slugger who strikes out around 30% of the time but is able to put a charge into a baseball and he gets the good side of his split to start out. The $2,900 outfielder on FanDuel — $3,700 on DraftKings — should be hitting around the heart of this lineup and definitely locks into a spot in this stack for me. In his two full seasons with more than 600 plate appearances, 2016 and 2017, Myers has hit 28 and 30 home runs while stealing 28 and 20 bases, respectively. Francisco Mejia is another sneaky right-handed power option from later in this lineup that I think works well here. The young catcher has long been regarded as a high-end prospect with the bat, for the position, and delivered a respectable .265/.316/.438 slash with eight home runs and a .173 ISO over 244 rookie plate appearances in 2019. For $3,400 on DraftKings he makes a fine catcher play and hopefully goes unnoticed. At the bare minimum on FanDuel, he’s actually less mandatory but works very well as an option if you need some salary relief here.

HR Call: Juan Soto (Nationals)


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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