MLB DFS Quick Hits: HRs, Stacks and Ownership Plays DraftKings + FanDuel | August 25

This is getting out a bit late after back-to-back shows earlier in the evening and then taking care of some things in the interim. It looks like we had the Cubs and Astros both deliver on heavy expectations today, although some of the chalky pitching could have done better for yours truly. With an unexpected pop from the Cardinals against habitual run-limiter Brad Keller in play, there were several paths to MLB DFS success through bats. Arms like Framber Valdez, Lance Lynn and Alec Mills all delivered high-end performances.

Tomorrow’s 10-game main slate looks like a blast for MLB DFS. We have a ton of power options on the board with some truly atrocious pitching going. The return of the Dark Knight continues with Matt Harvey‘s return to a main slate. More Bruce Wayne than Batman these days, his leash might be short. There are a few stacks that look truly explosive and will likely be widely owned. Check back tomorrow when we have the stacks tool to work with for a few of the more offbeat options in Stack Slants.


Related MLB DFS Content


MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Starling Marte – 4.13

Atlanta Braves: Matt Adams – 10.57

Baltimore Orioles: n/a

Boston Red Sox: n/a

Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez – 12.29

Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez – 11.65

Cincinnati Reds: Mike Moustakas – 6.67

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes – 9.07

Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado – 24.07

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop – 7.74

Houston Astros: n/a

Kansas City Royals:  Jorge Soler – 8.95

Los Angeles Angels: n/a

Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger – 7.73

Miami Marlins: n/a

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich – 7.42

Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler – 7.53

New York Mets: n/a

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge – 15.52

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson – 10.60

Philadelphia Phillies: n/a

Pittsburgh Pirates: Josh Bell – 4.83

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado – 8.86

San Francisco Giants: Wilmer Flores – 3.69

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager – 13.13

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul DeJong – 17.54

Tampa Bay Rays: n/a

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo – 11.37

Toronto Blue Jays: n/a

Washington Nationals: n/a

Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves – Yankees – 1-5 – Hicks – Judge – Urshela – Voit – Sanchez

The Yankees are in Atlanta, and they brought some heavy lumber along with them in the form of returning star Aaron Judge. With the Braves down to a one-man all-Max rotation after Touki Toussaint‘s bullpen appearance and subsequent demotion, it appears that Atlanta is going with another rookie making his debut start in Ian Anderson.

Anderson is the Braves’ third-ranked prospect and within the top 50 overall on the MLB Pipeline. The right-handed starter comes with a strong pedigree, having been drafted third overall in 2016. Anderson has a reasonable mix of pitches with a fastball that works around 96-mph, a plus curve and a developing changeup.

The rookie racked up strikeouts at every level in the minors, typically to the tune of between 25 and 30%, although he walked a few too many over the same stretch.

Against this Yankees lineup a few free passes could prove deadly. Every innings extender and runner on base with this team turns into a potential multi-run home run since the Yankees bring power in virtually every spot of the lineup. Judge’s return should normalize some of the batting order expectations for this team, and the weekend off after their series against the Mets was postponed by COVID-19 should gave some players a chance to recover and reset.

Before hitting the IL, a move he argued against, Judge was mashing. The outfielder is carrying a .290/.343/.758 slash with a .468 ISO (not a typo) and a WRC+ 89% above average, yet somehow costs just $4,000 on FanDuel. His $5,800 on DraftKings is far more appropriate and makes him difficult to get to, which could suppress his ownership. The spot against this rookie is amazing. Judge is vulnerable to the strikeout but typically obliterates Anderson’s two primary pitches.

Aaron Hicks up top at $3,100 and $3,000 Gary Sanchez make natural bookends for a top of the lineup stack for the Yankees on FanDuel. On DraftKings I would expect Sanchez to see increased popularity in what I expect to be a widely-owned stack, though I still like both players at $4,000 and $4,800, respectively. The outfielder hits from both sides of the plate and has been good this season despite a seeming power outage and lack of batting average so far.

Hicks is sitting at .209/.369/.418 on the season but carries a .209 ISO and a WRC+ 18% above average. Between the obvious power and the on-base tool he’s demonstrating leading off ahead of Judge and other bats in this lineup, Hicks is a no-brainer. Sanchez started the season slow but was still crushing the ball when he made contact with it, that just wasn’t happening enough. He’s corrected slightly over recent games and now has five home runs despite the sub-Mendoza .132/.253/.368 slash. Play Sanchez for the .235 ISO. We’re looking for him to clear the bases not fill them.

I’m going to eventually have to forgive Luke Voit for “stealing” Greg Bird‘s job. Since coming to the Yankees, the first baseman has been nothing short of spectacular, and it’s not his fault he’s not the left-handed home-grown product we were all looking forward to. In 593 plate appearances since the start of 2019, Voit has hit 31 home runs for the Yankees. In 510 in 2019 he had a .200 ISO, and he’s at .419 with 10 of those home runs so far this season. The all-or-nothing slugger is carrying a WRC+ 96% above league average. So he’s basically two good first basemen. At just $4,400 on DraftKings, he’s at a very nice discount, while his price on FanDuel at $4,100 is the highest on the team but still very easy to work with.

Gio Urshela is a player I still don’t truly believe in, but he’s another guy who just won’t stop hitting since coming to the Bronx. The third baseman is at .256/.333/.513 over his first 90 plate appearances in 2020. He also happens to have a .256 ISO so far this season to go with his WRC+ 26% above average. I’m not sure he should — or will — be hitting third as projected here, but he makes for a functional part of a Yankees stack from basically anywhere in this lineup.

Outfielders Brett Gardner and Clint Frazier both carry some sneaky pop on MLB DFS slates. Hitting from opposite sides of the plate, we might not see both outfielders here, but I can get behind including either in some of your stacks. Frazier would be a featured player in most team’s outfields. For the Yankees he’s just keeping a spot warm until everyone is healthy again. He’s been blocked unfairly in this system for 18 months at least and has done nothing but hit at every opportunity in the Show.

Frazier deserves a deadline trade to an organization that can give him a full-time role. For tomorrow he’s a solid option who could go under-owned given the other outfielders available in this lineup. So far in 2020 Frazier is at .333/400/.667 with two home runs and eight RBIs in his 30 plate appearances. Gardner is difficult to justify at .164/.288/.364 but has three home runs and three stolen bases to his credit. The outfielder isn’t completely washed yet and can provide occasional flashes of power, particularly against a potentially vulnerable rookie who could see the lefty as a brief respite after getting through bigger names in this lineup.


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Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks – Rockies – 2-3-4-6-8 – Story – Blackmon – Arenado – Kemp – McMahon

The Rockies on the road are not one of MLB DFS’ usual go-to options, but the spot against Alex Young looks too meaty to pass up. For his career, Young has a career 1.78 HR/9 over his 101 innings, with a 1.91 to right-handed bats. The lefty is vulnerable to both hands and has already yielded six home runs in 2020, four to right-handed hitters. With a limited arsenal that generates minimal swings and misses, Young doesn’t do much to strike fear into the hearts of Colorado hitters here. These bats should pop.

The Rockies feature two amazing right-handed bats in their lineup in Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado. Story is at .296/.357/.583 with eight home runs, 17 RBIs, five stolen bases and a whopping 25 runs scored so far in 2020. His .287 ISO and WRC+ 32% above league average are spectacular. His home run total and current ISO both rank second in baseball behind Fernando Tatis Jr. so far this year.

Arenado is off to a slower start at just .218/.259/.455 but still has seven home runs and a .238 ISO. Arenado is putting everything in play this year, he’s striking out at just a 7.1% clip over his 112 plate appearances and is suffering from just a .167 BABIP. This is a proven hitter who is one of the best in the league. Hope that people are playing the basic numbers and looking elsewhere and mash him into your Rockies stacks at just $4,900 on DraftKings. $4,100 for Story and $3,800 for Arenado on FanDuel are borderline laughable in this spot.

The Rockies will likely have Garrett Hampson leading off again here against a lefty. Hampson’s biggest asset is his speed, but that’s somewhat wasted at just .257/.317/.392 if he’s not getting on base to make things happen. He’s not a terrible option, however, and at just $2,500 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings, he’s certainly playable at second base as part of this stack.

Charlie Blackmon loses a slice of his power against same-handed pitching, but that probably doesn’t matter much against this particular lefty who probably won’t even be in the game long enough to see Blackmon’s third plate appearance. The outfielder has a career .312/.364/.488 slash against fellow southpaws in his career, there’s no real reason to skip him here. Ryan McMahon is another lefty who has high-quality splits against same-handed pitchers. I would actually look to roster him to create some differentiation in this lineup. The first- or second-base option costs just $4,100 on DraftKings and will likely be a less-popular choice. For his career, McMahon has a .250 ISO and 14 of his 35 career home runs in just 235 plate appearances against lefties.

Daniel Murphy and Matt Kemp are two veterans who are likely familiar to MLB DFS players. Both are past their primes but can still bring quality in different skillsets. Murphy still owns a very high-end hit tool and an ability to get on base. Though, he is out to a slow start this year at just .267/.308/.395. Kemp usually makes incredibly hard contact. So far in 2020, he’s in the third percentile in exit velocity and hard hit rate, and ninth in xwOBA.

Rookie Brendan Rodgers is a high-end prospect who ranks first in the Rockies organization. The shortstop has eligibility at second base as well on DraftKings and costs just $3,100. His price tag is unsurprisingly the bare minimum on FanDuel. The intern they put in charge of salaries they didn’t let leave the office for six months has never heard of him.

Rodgers carries a hit tool and game power that both grade 60 on the 20-80 traditional scouting scale. The prospect has done nothing to diminish expectations so far. He put up 17 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 402 plate appearances in AA in 2018. Then followed it up with nine home runs in his 160 AAA plate appearances in 2019. He saw 81 plate appearances in an unremarkable cup of coffee with the big club last year. However, his season ended with shoulder surgery in late June. I like getting to the kid as a good point of differentiation in the lineup, and we could see him hit in a surprising spot against a lefty.

HR Call: Nolan Arenado


Looking for more MLB DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo MLB home page, just click HERE.

Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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