MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

Our weird split and all over the place MLB DFS Monday slates went in the odd directions that we somewhat expected. Trevor Bauer nearly got to the complete game shutout bonus before coughing it up in the seventh. The Orioles exploded for 14 runs and the Athletics hung a big total on the Mariners in a double-header game.

Tomorrow’s slate looks far more straightforward with 12 games in the evening for the main slate contests. There are a few very good pitchers going, we have a Coors game and a few spots where we’ll want to get to the pricey bats, so keep an eye out for Stack Slants tomorrow and watch how things fall for Awesemo in the top stacks and top pitchers tools through the day.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun – 15.46

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. – 14.94

Baltimore Orioles: D.J. Stewart – 10.63

Boston Red Sox: n/a

Chicago Cubs: Anthony Rizzo – 10.99

Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez – 6.46

Cincinnati Reds: n/a

Cleveland Indians: Francisco Lindor – 4.18

Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story – 8.70

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop – 10.01

Houston Astros: Alex Bregman – 11.78

Kansas City Royals: Sal Perez – 13.31

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout – 27.68

Los Angeles Dodgers: Mookie Betts – 6.40

Miami Marlins: n/a

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich – 5.21

Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz – 16.76

New York Mets: Michael Conforto – 10.78

New York Yankees: Gleyber Torres – 11.83

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson – 11.56

Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper – 9.70

Pittsburgh Pirates: n/a

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado – 12.06

San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson – 10.57

Seattle Mariners: Dylan Moore – 8.29

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt – 9.86

Tampa Bay Rays: n/a

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo – 9.33

Toronto Blue Jays: Travis Shaw – 9.18

Washington Nationals: n/a

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros – Astros – 1-5 – Springer – Bregman – Brantley – Gurriel – Tucker

The Astros are at home with their intrastate rivals the Rangers in town and rookie hurler Kyle Cody on the hill. Cody has a total of 9.2 innings in the Show with eight walks and 11 strikeouts on his ledger so far, after never having pitched above High-A ball. The 26-year-old right hander is a non-prospect; he should be regarded mostly as roster filler, and the Astros could have a field day against him here.

This Houston lineup is still deep and talented despite any controversies or struggles. The top of the lineup is loaded, starting with George Springer, who is at a discounted $4,800 on DraftKings with his alleged struggles in 2020. The star player has a .240/.343/.480 slash on the season to go with nine home runs and a .240 ISO. His WRC+ is 26% above average. He’s only truly slumping in comparison with his stellar track record. If anything, we can expect upside if we catch the return to form before the season ends.

Alex Bregman is back in the lineup and hitting second. The superstar third baseman is at a heavy $5,100 but well worth it as the most expensive bat in the Astros lineup. In his 125 plate appearances in 2020, Bregman has a .250/.352/.454 slash with four home runs, a .204 ISO and a WRC+ 23% above average. In 2019 Bregman hit 41 home runs in his 690 plate appearances, driving in 112 and putting up a ridiculous .296 ISO. Get some Bregman in your Astros stacks.

Michael Brantley will be on the effective side of splits hitting against a weak right-handed pitcher. Over his last 550 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, Brantley has hit 22 home runs and has a .327/.387/.552 slash with a WRC+ 51% above average. He’s followed in the lineup by Yuli Gurriel, the big right-handed first baseman. Gurriel has hit six home runs in 2020 and had a .193 ISO with a WRC+ 7% above average. Gurriel has hit 47 home runs against same-handed pitching since the start of 2017. For just $7,800 combined, this duo can provide some high quality for less from the middle of the Astros lineup.

Kyle Tucker has cooled from his torrid start to the season, but he’s still having an excellent year. The outfielder has a .252/.305/.528 slash with eight home runs and 37 RBIs. His .276 ISO and WRC+ 19% above average pop off the stat line and tell us all we really need to know about the lefty’s upside. Tucker’s price has come down to just $4,500, and he’s highly playable for MLB DFS purposes tomorrow.

Hitting in front of Carlos Correa should afford Tucker the opportunity to contribute via getting on base as well as hitting on his own. The shortstop has seen a bit of diminished power this season as we’ve touched on in this space previously. He’s carrying just a .123 ISO so far on the year, but there’s too much known upside in Correa to dismiss him based on that alone. At just $4,700 I can work in a player who has a WRC+ 20% above average against same-handed pitching over the last three seasons.

Left-handed outfielder Josh Reddick has hit 33 home runs and has a .270/.330/.414 slash with a .144 ISO and a WRC+ just 1% above average. Reddick is fine for mixing into lineups, but the overall quality may be a bit overrated in the split. The Astros should have Aledmys Diaz in the lineup along with catcher Martin Maldonado. Diaz has second and third base eligibility on DraftKings at just $3,000 and is a reasonably capable hitter. The infielder has 28 home runs and a .276/.313/.458 slash with a WRC+ 4% above average. Like Reddick, he functions best as a mix-and-match option from late in the batting order. Maldonado is in the same category but will offer flashes of upside for price and popularity purposes on the right slate. Keep an eye on how things fall for him and move opposite the field as a general rule.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels – Angels – 3-7 – Trout – Rendon – Pujols – Upton – Adell

The Diamondbacks are in Anaheim to take on the Angels and they’re putting the shell of Madison Bumgarner on the mound again. The erstwhile ace is no longer nearly the pitcher he once was. He just gets rocked these days. In 2020, Bumgarner has just a 13.7% strikeout rate and a monstrous 3.76 HR/9, which was accumulated by allowing 11 home runs over a tiny 26 1/3-inning sample. Bumgarner’s arsenal is topped by an 83 mph cutter and a now 88 mph fastball that used to sit in the 90s. The pitcher simply seems to not have much left. He’s lost the ability to generate strikeouts and is in the 10th percentile or (much) worse in essentially every Statcast category. This is a target of a pitcher in this spot.

Most of the power that Bumgarner has allowed comes from the right side of the plate, which profiles well for an Angels offense heavy on right-handed power hitters. As a team, the Angels are ninth in baseball this year with 20 home runs against lefties, though their .152 ISO and WRC+ 19% below average are cause for concern. Overall, it seems more likely that these bats are going to overcome a pitcher with nothing left (for now).

The pricing on the top half of this batting order and the name recognition on Bumgarner could render this team a bit lower-owned than the spot warrants. David Fletcher is leading off for this team and costs a whopping $5,300 on DraftKings. In 173 plate appearances Fletcher has a .299/.364/.416 slash with a WRC+ 18% above average. He’s not worth that price in a vacuum, but getting to him as part of stacks regardless of the money probably makes sense and puts him in play.

Shohei Ohtani has been struggling at the plate since his injury earlier in the season. Through 150 plate appearances he was at a .189/.287/.349 slash with five home runs, a .159 ISO and a WRC+ 23% below average, though he has stolen seven bases so far. Ohtani does not handle same-handed pitching well; he has just a .133 ISO and a WRC+ 10% below average over his 273 plate appearances in the split with a 31.5% strikeout rate. Still, Bumgarner’s stuff isn’t there to the point that he’s not a strikeout threat, and Ohtani could be in play if he’s in the lineup. The price is difficult to swallow on DraftKings at $4,600 given those split numbers, but the place in the batting order in what should be a high-upside stack helps.

Hitting in front of Mike Trout is another asset that Ohtani has. Trout is crushing my home run model for tomorrow, one of the biggest marks of the season so far. The best player of this generation, Trout is having another astounding year. In his 196 plate appearances he’s hit 16 home runs, scored 39 times, driven in 39 runs, gotten on base at a .403 clip and is creating runs 76% better than the average. His .352 ISO is just bonkers. He crushes everything he comes in contact with and he comes in contact with a lot. Pay the $5,900 in stacks — it’s Mike Trout.

Anthony Rendon went from the East Coast to the West Coast to man the hot corner for the Angels. The star third baseman has a nice .289/.433/.510 slash with eight home runs in his 187 plate appearances so far. He’s followed in the lineup by Albert Pujols, who recently tied Willie Mays with 660 career home runs. Pujols is a shadow of his former self, scuffling to just a .237/.291/.407 slash with four homers this season. Over the past three seasons, Pujols has just a .178 ISO and a WRC+ 15% below average against left-handed pitchers, while getting on base at just a .287 clip. If you haven’t made money on Pujols in MLB DFS by now, your time is severely running out. He has upside in the spot at just $3,500, but it is extremely limited.

The same could be said for outfield teammate Justin Upton, though he never came close to the Hall of Fame heights to which Pujols ascended in his prime. So far on the year Upton is at just .196/.278/.357 with five home runs and a WRC+ 24% below average. He’s joined in the outfield, and below the Mendoza line, by Jo Adell. Adell is a player I was excited to see arrive, but he might not be fully cooked yet. He’s simply struggling to make contact, though he does have three home runs in his 121 plate appearances, two of which came in one game. There’s always that upside in his highly powerful bat. We just need to pick the days on which he connects. Adell’s best current asset is that he costs just $2,800 and helps makes everything else with this stack work.

Andrelton Simmons has been hitting toward the bottom of the lineup and could serve as a functional wraparound play from that spot, though there are other shortstops on the slate that I greatly prefer. For just $4,500 we can roster Simmons on DraftKings and hope for the best. He’s at .287/.337/.340 on the year with just a .053 ISO, though power has never been the reason to roster Simmons.

HR Call: Anthony Rendon (Angels)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.