MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

There is nothing like a couple of profitable football weekends in a row to set the DFS world right, for the moment. With MLB DFS victories coming in short supply and time running out in the season, sometimes outside reassurance can be just the thing to help get focused on good decision making. With the focus on the other sport’s slate, I truly didn’t see much of today’s baseball action outside of some highlights — I’m guessing that’s the case for you as well.

Tomorrow has a split slate on FanDuel, with an early slate kicking off at 4:05, including the games in the 6:00 hour, and a main slate that starts at 7:05. DraftKings was a little smarter and will simply start their main slate at 6:30 and include eight games. We’ll cover both of the FanDuel slates in the home runs and include all eight games from the DraftKings main slate in the pool of stacks.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: n/a

Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna – 11.76

Baltimore Orioles: n/a

Boston Red Sox: n/a

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber – 14.12

Chicago White Sox: Yasmani Grandal – 7.76

Cincinnati Reds: Mike Moustakas – 5.20

Cleveland Indians: Francisco Lindor – 14.75

Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story – 10.23

Detroit Tigers: n/a

Houston Astros: George Springer – 10.78

Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez – 4.52

Los Angeles Angels: Anthony Rendon – 8.85

Los Angeles Dodgers: n/a

Miami Marlins: Corey Dickerson – 10.20

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich – 7.08

Minnesota Twins: n/a

New York Mets: Pete Alonso – 14.24

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge – 18.74

Oakland Athletics: n/a

Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen – 12.85

Pittsburgh Pirates: Josh Bell – 10.46

San Diego Padres: n/a

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt – 4.82

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Lewis – 3.22

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul DeJong – 10.31

Tampa Bay Rays: n/a

Texas Rangers: Rougned Odor – 5.77

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk – 8.46

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto – 3.70

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals – Cardinals – 2-3-4-5-8 – Edman – Goldschmidt – Miller – DeJong – O’Neill

The Cardinals are in Kansas City to open a series against the Royals, who will have rookie Carlos Hernandez on the bump for this one. Hernandez has just nine innings of major league experience and had never pitched above high-A ball before this year. He’s likely another in a series of young pitchers that we’ve seen this year who would normally still be getting seasoning in the minors. The kid has a decent chance at being an effective pitcher when he’s ready. He’s posted mid-20s strikeout rates in the minors and flashes good stuff, though he’s only induced 8.3% swinging strikes in the Show so far. His last time out, Hernandez went just three innings. He has yet to go more than that in a game at this level, and we should expect him to be on a limit again, leading to the Royals’ league-average bullpen.

The Cardinals lineup has not seen much success this season, but they have one of the slate’s higher implied team totals and the matchup looks good. The team should be able to throw plenty of hitting to get after Hernandez and whatever comes out of the Royals bullpen. Lefty second baseman Kolten Wong should be leading off in this spot. For just $4,200 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel, Wong provides a reasonable ability to get on base and quality upside in the split. Since the start of last year, Wong has gotten on base at a .360 clip against right-handed pitchers. He should set the table well for the hitters behind him.

Tommy Edman hits from both sides of the plate and slots in at either third base or in the outfield on DraftKings. Edman’s combination of speed and power make him an asset for MLB DFS, although he’s struggled in both departments in 2020. After putting up 11 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 349 plate appearances in 2019, Edman has just four home runs and two swiped bags this year.

Following Edman the Cards should have lefty Brad Miller in the cleanup spot, bookended by Paul Goldschmidt hitting third and Paul DeJong hitting fifth. Miller, the second baseman or shortstop on DraftKings, costs $4,700, as a first baseman on FanDuel he’s only $2,800. Miller has hit seven home runs this season and has a WRC+ 33% above average with a .236 ISO, which leads the team. Against right-handed pitching, Miller has a .243 ISO and a WRC+ 39% above average.

Goldschmidt is an All-Star first baseman and not someone that should need to be sold for our purposes. Still, if it’s your first day, the slugger has just a 16.1% strikeout rate against same-handed pitching this season, while drawing a 15.5% walk rate. Those are outrageously good numbers on both sides. The .151 ISO in the split is low for him, but he’s still managing a WRC+ 45% above average. I’m happy to get to Goldschmidt at a discount.

DeJong slots in at shortstop and is an always underrated option at the position. He doesn’t have the overall sparkle of the Fernando Tatis Jr. choices. What DeJong does have is the fifth-most home runs in baseball at the position since the start of the 2017 season with 77. It’s noteworthy that DeJong has amassed that total in just 1,742 plate appearances, while Xander Bogaerts has only 76 home runs in 2,116, Marcus Semien has 65 in 2,042 and Tim Anderson has 65 in 1,917 opportunities. All of the hitters above DeJong on the list have at least 200 more plate appearances.

Matt Carpenter‘s best days as a hitter have come and gone, but we can still expect something from the veteran lefty against a rookie hurler. Carpenter has a miserable .182/.322/.298 slash with a WRC+ 21% below average this season and has been a part of the team’s struggles. Carpenter is striking out at a 27.6% rate against right-handed pitchers this season, though he does draw the walk 13.8% of the time, which helps with creating runs, to a degree. These are mostly reasons that Carpenter costs just $2,700 on FanDuel. He requires more consideration at $4,500 on DraftKings, but the price doesn’t put him out of play in the middle of this batting order.

Catcher Yadier Molina is a frequently low-owned and inexpensive option at the position on DraftKings. I would be less likely to roll him out in big shares on FanDuel, where we aren’t required to use catchers. The veteran has a .256/.296/.342 slash this season to go with his three home runs and WRC+ 25% below average.

Tyler O’Neill is my favorite hitter late in this lineup because of the power upside the slugger brings to the dish. In his 143 plate appearances in 2020, O’Neill has a .205 ISO, though his WRC+ is 20% above average. O’Neill is very much an all-or-nothing home run hitter positioned in a late spot in this lineup.

Dylan Carlson is another switch-hitting outfielder in the 15-20 home runs and stolen bases mold. Hitting ninth for just $3,000, we can work Carlson in as a wraparound option on DraftKings, and he’s a fine price pivot at $2,100 on FanDuel.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Yeah, it’s time to talk about the Braves again. The team is in another very good-looking spot with Marlins prospect Trevor Rogers taking the mound tomorrow. The lefty is yet another starter who would likely find himself pitching in AA in a normal year. The 6-foot-5 lefty does have good stuff and is expected to be a solid contributor for this team as it develops over the next few years, but it’s early. In his 21 innings this season, Rogers has yielded five home runs and has a 4.16 xFIP to his 6.00 ERA, while inducing 12.5% swinging strikes, striking out 29.6% of hitters while walking 10.2%. Ultimately this reads like a young pitcher struggling to harness his stuff against a higher class of hitting, but getting results when he manages to. I wouldn’t play the pitcher in most spots yet. In this one I want to lean into the bats.

Since the start of 2019, the Braves’ active roster is fifth in baseball with a .209 ISO, and they have a WRC+ 3% above average against left-handed pitching. Looking at just 2020, the team is topped in their ISO splits by Marcell Ozuna, someone we have been discussing here since the season began. In his 50 plate appearances against southpaws this season, Ozuna has a ludicrous .561 ISO and a WRC+ 150% better than average. He’s carrying a .366/.480/.927 slash with a team-leading 13 home runs in the split. Ozuna hits third for this team and costs $5,000. Did I mention the entire lineup is expensive?

At an average cost of $5,100, the top seven hitters in this lineup are among the mots expensive on the DraftKings slate. This has helped keep ownership off of the Braves in excellent spots recently. I’m hoping for more of the same. Ronald Acuna Jr. is the most expensive hitter on the team, leading off at $5,900. The superstar outfielder has hit 12 home runs in 2020 while stealing six bases and getting on at a .411 clip in front of his powerful teammates. His $4,500 on FanDuel is high for the site but should be higher. Acuna is pulling an excellent mark in both my home run model, and my MLB DFS projections and I’ll gladly pay up and hope he’s not popular.

Freddie Freeman hits from the left side of the plate, and he does it in between the pair of outfielders. At $5,500, Freeman makes an expensive addition to round out a three-man stack, but it can work. Freeman has hit 15 home runs in 2020; he hit 38 in his 692 plate appearances in 2019. The first baseman is at a relative discount on FanDuel. Since the start of 2019, Freeman has just a .158 ISO and a WRC+ 10% below average against same-handed pitching, though if we stretch back through the start of 2017, he climbs to a .202 ISO and a WRC+ 20% above average. There should be quality enough in the lefty bat to get to this kid, I’ll let others get frightened off by the recent splits on this one.

Catcher Travis d’Arnaud is someone who has been on the radar of most MLB DFS players this season. His popularity has tended to fluctuate with his price and relative performance. He’s at $4,700 and should be hitting in the middle of the lineup, if he’s low-owned I want to rack up some shares. Since the start of 2019, d’Arnaud has a .223 ISO and a WRC+ 11% above average against lefties.

Adam Duvall is a big right-handed bat that we’ve touched on recently. He’s having a big year with 16 home runs in his 177 plate appearances. Duvall isn’t a bottomed-out/all-or-nothing slugger this season — he’s at a robust .255/.316/.602 with a WRC+ 36% above average. Since the start of 2019, Duvall has a .366 ISO and a WRC+ 59% above average against lefties, with seven home runs and a .305/.356/.671 slash.

Ozzie Albies is back from the injured list and has produced at every turn this season. The second baseman is priced up at $5,100 on DraftKings, though he remains affordable at $3,900 on FanDuel. Albies is an All-Star-caliber player in his own right and could hit higher in this order depending on how the Braves put things together. The switcher-hitter went deep 24 times in his 702 plate appearances in 2019, adding 15 stolen bases to the tab for additional DFS value.

Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley are another two column favorites and another pair of right-handed power bats in this lineup. Swanson filled in ably up top for parts of the season and could move up again as he is wont to do against lefties. The .271/.342/.435 slash is solid as are the seven home runs and WRC+ 64% above average. Swanson is every bit the high-end shortstop, much like his fellow National League star DeJong from the Cardinals.

The final two hitters in the projected lineup deliver a little salary relief. Nick Markakis has struggled with lefties over the past year; his WRC+ is 23% below average. He’s not nearly out of play at just $3,800 on DraftKings, but he’s a tougher ask than Riley at the hot corner.

Riley hits from the right side of the plate and slots in at third base for just $3,800 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel. The slugger has eight home runs so far this season, though his WRC+ has slipped to 7% below average. Riley hit 18 home runs in just 297 plate appearances in 2019 and has long been regarded as a rising power bat in the Braves system. Heavy ownership will be the only thing to keep me away from taking out significant shares of Riley in Braves builds.

HR Call: Marcell Ozuna (Braves)

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more MLB DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo MLB home page, just click HERE.

Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.