MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

That was an interesting day of MLB DFS action. With a limited set of lineups going I, frankly, didn’t come close to hitting anything worth discussing. The Yankees and Cardinals offenses both went bust on us, and pitching was frustrating at best. With a big slate on deck for tomorrow, we have some opportunity to make up ground before the season comes to a conclusion this weekend.

Tomorrow’s slate looks loaded with some pricey hitting options. I think value is going to come into play in important ways with how things are priced across the slate, and several of the teams with low pricing have very strong implied team totals. This is where we’re going to focus today. I expect both teams to be popular, though they may not ascend to the top of the stacks tool in terms of probability of success. It will be interesting to see how things fall for Awesemo when his projections and top stacks run in the morning.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun – 9.04

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman – 13.01

Baltimore Orioles: D.J. Stewart – 17.84

Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts – 14.15

Chicago Cubs: Anthony Rizzo – 12.38

Chicago White Sox: n/a

Cincinnati Reds: n/a

Cleveland Indians: n/a

Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon – 5.70

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop – 6.58

Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker – 14,91

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler – 11.97

Los Angeles Angels: Anthony Rendon – 5.67

Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy – 6.06

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar – 9.88

Milwaukee Brewers: n/a

Minnesota Twins: Miguel Sano – 21.84

New York Mets: J.D. Davis – 10.66

New York Yankees: n/a

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson – 8.02

Philadelphia Phillies: n/a

Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco – 7.66

San Diego Padres: Mitch Moreland – 10.19

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt – 5.50

Seattle Mariners: Dylan Moore – 3.72

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt – 13.86

Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe – 4.79

Texas Rangers: Nick Solak – 6.35

Toronto Blue Jays: n/a

Washington Nationals: n/a

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox – Orioles – 9-1-3-4-6 – Hays – Mullins – Stewart – Mountcastle – Nunez

The Orioles are in Fenway to take on the division rival Red Sox and recently acquired Nick Pivetta. The starter came over from Philadelphia at the trading deadline and has been at the alternate site since. This will be his first significant action since Aug. 10. The starter has a career 4.03 xFIP and a 5.50 ERA in his 396.1 innings to go with his 24.4% strikeout rate and 1.63 HR/9. The right-hander has given up more power to same-handed hitters in his career, though he has yielded power to both sides of the plate with regularity.

The Orioles have one of the slate’s highest implied team totals, and they’re drawing excellent projections and marks in my home run model. The team should have Cedric Mullins leading off. The outfielder hits from both sides of the plate and costs just $2,600 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel. Mullins has a .267/.315/.362 slash on the year with just a .095 ISO and a WRC+ 15% below average overall. However, in his 93 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Mullins has a .310/.356/.405 slash with a WRC+ 9% above average, putting him in play from atop this lineup.

Jose Iglesias is a right-handed shortstop who will draw little attention on most slates. He costs just $4,000 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel despite his .377/.406/.515 slash on the season. There’s not a ton of power in the bat, but Iglesias has been stellar at getting on base and setting the table for hitters behind him, resulting in a WRC+ 53% above average.

D.J. Stewart has been a force in the Orioles lineup since coming back from the IL. At $2,600 he’s discounted on DraftKings and actually less expensive than his $2,900 on FanDuel. The outfielder hits from the left side of the plate and has seven home runs in just 89 plate appearances. His .203 average might scare off the casual crowd, but we know there’s quality in the .368/.536 back end of his slash, as well as his .333 ISO and WRC+ 44% above average so far on the season.

Stewart hits in front of rookie Ryan Mountcastle, who has been a revelation for the Orioles since his promotion earlier in the season. With dual eligibility at first base and outfield on DraftKings, he makes a dynamic play for just $3,700. The Rookie of the Year candidate has a .330/.389/.530 slash, five home runs and a .200 ISO and a WRC+ 48% above average.

Catcher Pedro Severino fluctuates in popularity with his pricing. At just $3,400 he’s likely to be at inflated ownership across the slate, but the less interested the public is in the backstop the more I’ll want to get to. Severino has a .267/.344/.418 with a .151 ISO and a WRC+ 9% above average. He’s a quality offensive option at the position when not in an insurmountable number of competing lineups.

Renato Nunez is this team’s current best option for power. The first baseman hits from the right side of the plate and has 11 home runs in his 202 plate appearances in 2020. Nunez has a robust .250 ISO and a WRC+ 21% above average in the split. At just $3,700 he’s another bat in this lineup that helps pay for a lot of other pieces of this slate. His counterpart on the other side of the diamond is also in play hitting next in the lineup.

Rio Ruiz also brings a bit of power with him, and he hits from the left side. The third baseman is also low-priced and could be a good ownership pivot if other parts of this team are more popular. Ruiz has a .205 ISO against right-handed pitching this year, though his WRC+ is 18% below average in the split. He’s a bit of an all-or-nothing play.

Hanser Alberto is another mix-and-match option at second base, though I prefer the next hitter for less money and more upside. Alberto costs a full $3,800 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel. With a .286/.309/.397 slash, three home runs and a WRC+ 10% below average, I’m not sure what has Alberto’s price inflated on DraftKings.

Austin Hays is far more interesting regardless of his spot in the nine-hole in this order. Hays is in play as a wraparound option with power. The kid has a highly regarded home run stroke and also is capable of swiping the occasional base. In 2020 he has two home runs and two stolen bases in his 106 plate appearances. Across three levels of minor league ball in 2019, Hays hit 17 home runs and stole nine bases in just 378 plate appearances. He added another four home runs and two stolen bases in his 75 plate appearances in the Show last year as well. Hays makes an excellent play from late in the lineup. I’m hoping no one else notices, so keep it between us.

Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks – Diamondbacks – 2-6 – VanMeter – Walker – Calhoun – Escobar – Peralta

The Diamondbacks are another of our cheap teams with solid implied totals on tomorrow’s slate. The team has had a tough go of it overall this year, and they do not excel against right-handed pitching. On the season, the active roster has a .162 ISO in the split with a WRC+ 15% below average, but they weren’t facing right-handed pitchers as bad as Jordan Lyles in all of those plate appearances.

Lyles is struggling mightily in 2020. The right-handed hurler has just a 12.9% strikeout rate this season, and he walks 9.4% of hitters. His 6.10 xFIP is awful, but still somewhat better than his 7.07 ERA over his 49.2 innings. The real story is the power that Lyles has allowed. Lyles sits in the 32nd percentile in exit velocity allowed, the 28th percentile in hard hit rate and just the fourth in strikeout rate. Lyles has allowed 10 home runs so far in 2020, six to right-handed hitters and four to lefties. We can throw any bats we want at this pitcher.

The Diamondbacks have a few bats that we can still be happy about rostering and a few that are at least functional for MLB DFS purposes. The team has a number of lefties in the top handful of hitters, and they should give Lyles fits to start the game. Josh Rojas may or may not be in the lineup — the projected has him hitting first. Rojas provides eligibility at second base and shortstop and costs just $3,400. In his 70 plate appearances this year, Rojas has a hilariously bad WRC+ at 76% below average. When you combine that skill with his .257 on-base percentage and no home runs against right-handed pitching, it becomes a bit difficult to see why he would be leading off at all. Rojas can be mixed in from that spot in the lineup, but he’s not a hitter I’m excited to get to even against an incendiary pitcher like this.

The next three hitters in the lineup are far more interesting. Josh VanMeter hits from the left side of the plate and has all nine of his career home runs against right-handed pitchers. With second and third base eligibility, VanMeter snaps together in interesting ways with Rojas, provided you don’t mind starting with two sub-Mendoza hitters.

Christian Walker is the first truly interesting bat we’ve gotten to in this projected lineup. The first baseman costs just $3,300 on DraftKings and is carrying a .280/.343/.477 slash with a .197 ISO and a WRC+ 17% above average overall this year. Walker is tied for second on this team with four home runs in the split this season with a .190 ISO and a WRC+ 18% above average. I can work with Walker at his price.

Kole Calhoun is a name well worth discussing. Calhoun has 15 home runs on the season and a .314 ISO with a WRC+ 34% above average overall in 2020. Twelve of his home runs have come against right-handed pitching with a .333 ISO and a WRC+ 49% above average. The outfielder is a no-brainer at just $4,500 on DraftKings and $3,400 on FanDuel.

Eduardo Escobar hits from both sides of the plate and slots in at third base. He’s at just $2,500 on FanDuel hitting fifth in the lineup, and he should see some RBI opportunities. Escobar is drawing a decent home run mark in my model, though he’s struggling to make contact at just .191/.257/.311 on the season. If I had to choose between Escobar and David Peralta in this spot, I would have to go to the outfielder at $100 less on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel.

Peralta has a .287/.327/.420 with a .133 ISO and a WRC+ 1% below average in his 202 plate appearances overall, but he creates runs at a clip 8% above average against right-handed pitching this season. If no one is on him I can get a fair share of lineups with the outfielder into my entries tomorrow.

Following Peralta we have a mixed bag of options that should include Nick Ahmed, Carson Kelly and Daulton Varsho. Varsho has a little bit of power and some speed upside. He’s hit three home runs and stolen three bases in his 94 plate appearances in the Show, though he’s carrying just a .155/.245/.333 slash so far. Varsho is an interesting inexpensive catcher play, though Carson Kelly hitting after him might be even more interesting for just $2,700. Kelly is at just .194/.237/.343 for the season, but I’m more interested in the 18 home runs he hit in just 365 plate appearances last year. I think I can work with Kelly against a homer-prone pitcher on sites where catchers are required.

HR Call: Renato Nunez (Orioles)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.