MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

The home run model liked the Royals going into today, and they sure delivered. — just not the guys who were combined correctly in my lineups. Hopefully they got into some of yours with multiple double-home-run games. MLB DFS has been a wild ride this year, and things are staying interesting as we wind down. The game between Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito was an excellent pitching duel, delivering on all the promise it had going in, with the starters putting up a combined 21 strikeouts.

Tomorrow has a six-game main slate and a two-game early slate up on both sites so far. I would expect them both to add slates in the 6:00 p.m. EST window to capture those three games as well. I included the full 11 games from the day in the home run model, and I’m picking from just the six-game main slate for our stacks, as usual. We’ve got a few excellent looking stacks that should come up chalky and some sneaky spots I already have my eye on for tomorrow afternoon.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: n/a

Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna – 7.25

Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle – 6.46

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers – 9.90

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber – 16.70

Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez – 6.63

Cincinnati Reds: n/a

Cleveland Indians: Francisco Lindor – 3.34

Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon – 9.85

Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario – 6.69

Houston Astros: Alex Bregman – 7.23

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler – 18.77

Los Angeles Angels: Tommy La Stella – 7.44

Los Angeles Dodgers: Joc Pederson 11.00

Miami Marlins: Starling Marte – 9.03

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich – 13.22

Minnesota Twins: n/a

New York Mets: Pete Alonso – 11.50

New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton – 19.28

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson – 7.24

Philadelphia Phillies: n/a

Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco – 5.59

San Diego Padres: n/a

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt – 17.26

Seattle Mariners: n/a

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt – 6.74

Tampa Bay Rays: n/a

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo – 17.94

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk – 7.70

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto – 5.36

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves – Braves – 8-9-1-2-3 – Riley – Swanson – Acuna – Freeman – Ozuna

I’ve given the Braves a bit of a break lately on the full write-ups and just called them out in good spots a few times. Today might be the last really explosive opportunity for them, so we have to take one last look for the MLB DFS season. This team has been good to us all year long, and they have one of the slate’s highest implied team totals against Pablo Lopez and the Marlins.

Lopez has pitched fairly well other than a few bumps through this season. In his 52.1 innings, the right-handed starter has a 3.56 xFIP and a 24.1% strikeout rate. He’s allowed just four home runs and is inducing swinging strikes at an increased rate of 12.3%. Still, this Braves team has been smashing right-handed pitching all season long. In the split, the active roster ranks second in baseball with a .236 ISO and they lead the league with a WRC+ 30% better than average.

Leadoff superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. is first on the team in the split with an absurd .389 ISO in his 141 plate appearances this season. His WRC+ 77% above average against same-handed pitching is third on the squad, Acuna provides upside in the power and speed department, with 13 home runs and six stolen bases.

First baseman Freddie Freeman hits from the left side of the plate and has monster upside in this spot. The $5,500 price tag is a lot, but it is also easy to justify for a hitter of Freeman’s caliber. The first baseman has a .347/.463/.643 overall slash this season with a .296 ISO and a WRC+ 88% above average. Against right-handed pitching those eye-popping numbers get downright mind-melting, Freeman has a .376 ISO and a WRC+ 122% better than average. I’ll figure out ways to get him in and save money at other spots.

Marcell Ozuna has had several gigantic games this season and is reminding everyone that he wields one of the league’s best bats. The outfielder costs $5,000 on DraftKings and $4,300 on FanDuel with his .327/.412/.630 slash and 17 home runs total for 2020. In same-handed matchups, Ozuna has a .317/.395/.563 slash with a .246 ISO and a WRC+ 53% above average.

Travis d’Arnaud is priced at $4,800 on DraftKings but just $3,400 on FanDuel. He could be trending toward low ownership on the catcher mandatory site and even less at a steal of a price on the blue site. The right-handed backstop has a total of nine home runs on the season as well as a .327/.391/.545 slash.

Adam Duvall has brought a gigantic amount of right-handed power to the Braves lineup. The veteran outfielder has a 16 home run total with a .322 ISO and a WRC+ 27% above average. Thirteen of Duvall’s home runs this season have come against same-handed pitching. He leads the team in homers in the split.

Ozzie Albies hits from both sides of the plate and is one of the better players hitting seventh or lower across the entire slate, if not the best. Albies typically would find himself hitting second for this team and most others in the league. The second baseman has missed significant time this year but in his 74 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, Albies has a .310 ISO and a WRC+ 57% above average.

The other lefty in the Braves likely lineup is Nick Markakis. The veteran outfielder is discounted at just $3,700 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel. After missing the start of the season with his initial opt-out, Markakis started hot but cooled considerably. He has brought very little power to the lineup and is struggling to get on base. The outfielder’s WRC+ has slipped well below average at just 86, and he’s been worse in his limited number of plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. I’m fine with Markakis as a limited mix-in option, but we shouldn’t go haywire with him.

The final two hitters in the projected lineup are bats that I’m happy to go a little haywire with from time to time. They’ve mostly rewarded us for our faith this season. Right-handed third baseman Austin Riley has hit eight home runs in his 200 plate appearances this season. At just $3,600 the kid’s power is at a discount — hopefully his ownership will be as well.

Shortstop Dansby Swanson is the final piece of the puzzle hitting ninth. In his 198 plate appearances against same-handed pitchers this season, Swanson has a .203 ISO and a WRC+ 30% above average. Swanson has hit eight home runs in the split this season and is having what would be a true breakout year under normal circumstances. At just $4,600 on DraftKings, Swanson is in play as a wraparound option, and he works even better if he’s hitting higher in the lineup.

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

The Royals were popping in my home run model going into today’s tilt against the Cardinals and Carlos Martinez, and they look even better tomorrow in their matchup against post-surgery punching bag Michael Fulmer and whatever follows out of the fatigued and fading Tiger’s bullpen. The right-handed starter is having a very tough go of it in his bid to return after missing all of 2019. His xFIP sits at 5.57 on the season, which shows some bad luck in his 8.17 ERA but is still unacceptably bad. The pitcher has struck out just 16.4% of hitters while walking 9.8% and holding a WHIP of 1.97. With his 2.49 HR/9, those are wildly untenable numbers. Fulmer has allowed seven home runs in his 25.1 innings so far this season. He’s expected to go three or four innings and could easily give up a handful of runs in that time once again.

The Royals are not one of baseball’s better teams, but they’ve gotten healthy recently, with Salvador Perez and Jorge Soler coming back to the middle of the lineup. Perez is one of the league’s best offensive catchers and is finally back in the groove of things. He’s pulling another excellent mark in my home run model and for MLB DFS points. The catcher has a .230 ISO and a WRC+ 59% above average against right-handed pitching this season. He’s expensive, along with the two hitters in front of him in the order, but worth it at $5,300 on DraftKings and just $3,600 on FanDuel.

Soler, on the other hand, is at just $3,100 on DraftKings and a similar $3,000 on FanDuel. The slugger has a .231/.327/.448 slash overall this year, with eight home runs in his 167 plate appearances. Against same-handed pitching, Soler has made 148 plate appearances and has a .232 ISO and a WRC+ 17% above average. Play the quality and the discount.

The two pricey hitters ahead of Perez are, as you probably guessed, Whit Merrifield leading off and Adalberto Mondesi hitting second. Mondesi has turned this around recently and has clawed his way above the Mendoza line, though his WRC+ is still at just 51% below average. At $5,000 Mondesi might still be an unpopular option at the shortstop position on DraftKings, though he’s just $2,900 on FanDuel where he could be popular. Mondesi’s biggest upside this season has come from his legs; his 20 stolen base total leads the league in by a full six.

Merrifield is having a far better year at .284/.331/.453 slash and a WRC+ 12% above average. The outfielder has 10 stolen bases this season to add to the power upside in his nine home runs over 242 plate appearances. Maikel Franco is another right-handed bat having a good year in the middle of this order and our MLB DFS stacks. Franco costs just $4,100 hitting behind Soler. The third baseman has a .275/.321/.449 slash with seven home runs this year. Against right-handed pitching, Franco has a .195 ISO with a WRC+ 5% above average.

Hunter Dozier is the last hitter in the lineup with a very large home run total in my model, after that we’re just at larger than average. Dozier also hits from the right side of the plate and plays a corner position at first base. The $4,400 price on DraftKings is about right, while his $3,000 on FanDuel is easy to afford. Dozier has a .174 ISO with a WRC+ 3% above average against right-handed pitching this season.

Alex Gordon, Franchy Cordero and Nicky Lopez could run out three consecutive lefty bats to wrap up this lineup. Of the trio, we at least know Cordero has two-home-run upside, we saw the outfielder hit a pair of home runs just Wednesday evening. He’s unlikely to repeat the trick and may not even be in the lineup. Cordero had made just 27 plate appearances prior to the game on Wednesday, hitting zero home runs and pulling down a .154/.185./.231 slash. Gordon is a veteran bat in the outfield who costs very little.

At just $2,500 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel, Gordon is extremely affordable and he’s never a player the MLB DFS public seems to want to roster. Gordon has struggled against opposite-handed pitching this season, though for his career he has 137 home runs and a WRC+ 6% above average in the split. Lopez is a mix-and-match option for me and not much more.

HR Call: Brandon Belt (Giants)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.