MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

And I thought I was bad at planning. Whoever works in MLB’s scheduling department should honestly be fired. How does one land on the notion of having the last day of the baseball season fall on a Sunday in late September? Either MLB assumed that the football would not be playing because 2020, or they just have no media savvy. With every team playing in the afternoon we have a loaded 15-game slate that no one will be watching. A few playoff races and seeding will be decided and we barely have worthwhile MLB DFS slates to play alongside the contests. Would it have been difficult to coordinate the schedule to end yesterday and set up the same giant fun day of baseball?

Not only that, but now we’ve had the start of the Royals and Tigers game moved up to 1:05 EST this afternoon. Instead of just cutting the game and informing users to change their lineups, FanDuel moved the lock time up by two hours to accommodate the change. Be aware of this, others might be sleeping on it. Or just still actually sleeping. On DraftKings, players from that game simply won’t score, so get them out of your lineups.

I hate to start off the last column of the MLB regular season with a complaining rant, it’s been too much fun this year to be too annoyed by the scheduling, it just would be fun to squeeze in one last monster MLB slate. With today’s limited prize pools, we’ll take what we can get. There look like a ton of good opportunities for offense on the slate and ownership should be distributed everywhere. Lineups will be wildly unpredictable today as well and with a changed lock time while everyone focuses on a different sport we could see a larger-than-normal number of entries with players who do not start included.

The Phillies, Brewers and Giants are still chasing a single playoff spot, depending how things go we could see a one-game playoff tomorrow. These are likely to be the most predictable lineups and playing situations on the board today.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Eduardo Escobar – 5.62

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman – 24.27

Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle – 9.75

Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts – 19.97

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber – 15.00

Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu – 10.43

Cincinnati Reds: Nick Castellanos – 4.21

Cleveland Indians: Francisco Lindor – 4.34

Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story – 24.37

Detroit Tigers: Niko Goodrum – 8.64

Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker – 8.44

Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez – 10.10

Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani – 7.19

Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Turner – 12.65

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar – 9.73

Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun – 10.45

Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz – 5.70

New York Mets: J.D. Davis – 10.78

New York Yankees: Gleyber Torres – 11.40

Oakland Athletics: Khris Davis – 9.09

Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen – 11.80

Pittsburgh Pirates: Colin Moran – 4.00

San Diego Padres: Will Myers – 8.74

San Francisco Giants: Wilmer Flores – 7.65

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager – 5.02

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul DeJong – 8.28

Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena – 8.44

Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun – 10.14

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk – 18.81

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto – 5.65

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays – Blue Jays – 2-6 – Bichette – Hernandez – Grichuk – Guerrero – Gurriel

The Orioles are in Buffalo to close out their season in what should be a tune-up or an off-day for the Blue Jays before their playoff run begins on Tuesday. The eighth seeded team will probably throw at least some of its regulars at rookie hurler Keegan Akin. The lefty could be in over his head depending on which of the big right-handed power bats the Jays have in the lineup today.

Akin has thrown 22.2 innings this season and hsa a 3.73 xFIP to a 3.57 ERA, he’s pitched well in his limited action. The 30.7% strikeout rate would likely normalize to the mid to low 20% range that we saw in the minors, but there are certainly strikeouts in this arm. The low walk rate and his swinging strike rate of 13.6% are both also impressive so far. Still, there is a lot of power on the good side of splits in the opposing lineup.

The Blue Jays typically start things off with Cavan Biggio, a lefty who slots in at third base or in the outfield on DraftKings. In his 85 plate appearances against lefties this season, Biggio has a .152 ISO and a WRC+ 59% above average.

Bo Bichette is a high-end shortstop option who costs $4,900 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel. He’s carrying a solid home run mark in my model and is having a good year at .304/.333/.530 with a .226 ISO and WRC+ 31% above average in his 120 plate appearances.

Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk bring a ton of right-handed power to the dish and this is where Akin might get in trouble. With Biggio and Bichette able to get on base at a reasonable clip ahead of them, the two outfielders could see several big RBI opportunities and they are both pulling impressive marks in the home run model. Grichuk has hit 10 this season, while Hernandez leads the team with 16. For just $4,400 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel Grichuk is a bargain. I’m happy to pay up for Hernandez if others are skipping him.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a player with upside for days. He’s got a .304 ISO in his 64 plate appearances against lefties in 2020 and is creating runs at a pace 18% above average. The first baseman costs just $4,200 on DraftKings and $3,400 on FanDuel, fire away here.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the last of our second generation stars and he also hits from the right side of the plate. Gurriel has 10 home runs in his 218 plate appearances this season. He’s carrying a .297/.339/.505 slash with a .208 ISO and a WRC+ 28% above average, he’s firmly in play for $3,900 on DraftKings and gives me one last price to make fun of on FanDuel at just $2,900.

Alejandro Kirk is inexpensive filler at catcher where required, his $2,700 makes him easy to play and he’s had a solid 22 plate appearances so far. Jonathan Villar is a dynamic switch hitter who slots in at second and shorstop and costs only $4,000. He’s having a bit of a rough year at .234/.301/.297 with just two home runs but he has managed 13 stolen bases for MLB DFS owners, he could be sneaky. Danny Jansen is also in the projected lineup and slots in at catcher as well. Jansen has limited quality for the money, he’s a mix and match at best.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks – Rockies 3-7 – Story – Blackmon – Fuentes – Kemp – McMahon

The Rockies aren’t the team with the highest implied total on the board but they’re projected for a healthy amount of runs nonetheless. I’m hoping this spot doubles as a Stack Slants type of take, since we won’t be running that with the busy football Sunday, as usual. The Rockies could go under the radar in a good spot against washed up Madison Bumgarner.

In his last start, Bumgarner managed to work through five innings of two hit ball while striking out seven Astros in a total stunner. He had given up two home runs in each of four of five starts immediately before that game, in the fifth game of that group he gave up four homers. The veteran lefty has struggled through the entire season and one good start against the Astros doesn’t change that for me, I want to target him with some of these Rockies bats.

The Rockies will be without superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado, which takes a big right-handed bat out of the lineup. They still should have enough quality in the split to make them a good play against Bumgarner. Young lefty Raimel Tapia has an .365/.393/.462 slash with a WRC+ 16% above average in the split. He should be leading off and setting the table for the hitters behind him, which is where he finds most of his value.

Kevin Pillar provides a veteran presence in the outfield and a quality bat likely hitting second in the modified version of this lineup. Pillar has a .237 ISO in his 82 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, with a WRC+ 52% above average. He’s dynamite in the split and is affordable at just $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel.

Trevor Story is where the lineup really gets juicy. Story devours left-handed pitching. Over the course of this season he’s faced lefties 73 times and has a .295 ISO with a WRC+ 73% above average to go with five home runs. Story is pricey but worth it and in the right range at the shortstop position even at $5,800. He’s the most expensive player on this team and we can average his price down through combinations of teammates in the stack.

Charlie Blackmon is a lefty outfielder who is another high end star in this lineup. Blackmon tends to get forgotten in the shuffle at times, particularly on the road. He’s hitting cleanup in the projected lineup and has no real issues with same-handed pitching. On the year he has a .390/.429/.532 slash in his limited 84 plate appearances against lefties, to go with a WRC+ 45% above average.

Josh Fuentes slots in at first base for just $2,900 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel. He’s got a .321/.330/.452 slash with two home runs overall on the season and is a good option in the middle of this lineup. Matt Kemp has one last opportunity to deliver for MLB DFS owners at just $3,500 and $2,600. He’s on the good side of splits where he has a .180 ISO and a WRC+ 13% above average on the season.

Ryan McMahon is another lefty who does very well in same-handed matchups. As we’ve looked at over the course of the season, McMahon has a career .249/.313/.489 slash against lefties with a .241 ISO and a WRC+ just 6% below average. Against right-handed pitchers he’s at just .234/.321/.399 with a .165 ISO. McMahon has hit 15 of his 38 career home runs against lefties despite seeing only 260 plate appearances in the split compared to 694 against the opposite hand.

Garrett Hampson gets things done with his legs and he has a reasonably well projected hit tool that has yet to fully develop. He costs just $3,100 at the bottom-end of the lineup and is mostly filler as a mix and match. His six stolen bases and five home runs on the year in 170 plate appearances are fine, but the WRC+ 30% below average is an issue. Tony Wolters is in the projected lineup catching despite the lefty-lefty matchup. He’s nothing more than filler here.

HR Call: Trevor Story (Rockies)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.